Now under attack Iraq, where there is already a de facto independent Kurdistan, which are at war ("kontrterrosticheskie operations") of Iran and Turkey. Turkey launched a military operation against the Iraqi Kurds, like the ones the car blew up in the border area — killed nine soldiers. In response, Ankara began to put on strikes, immediately conducting ground operations. August 23, said that the Turks killed in 6 days 100 Kurdish rebels, 10's rebels wounded. Turkish Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz sobbschil that organized the explosion of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The representatives of the PKK claimed responsibility for the incident.
Also under attack Libya, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan's future is unclear. South American, analysts are already "concocting" new maps Near East, as to one of them instead of Saudi Arabia will be at least three countries.
One of the states, which is in danger of dismemberment — is Syria, there is not one last month, according to a number of Russian and Western media, "social unrest." Kill police officers, snipers fired on the military, the army is responsible "sweeps" of cities, districts. Syria's unity is possible only with a strong central government, which did not hesitate to use violence ready for what ever radicals. Segodnyaschy same situation leads to strife, division of society into aggressive groups and ultimately the collapse of the country. Muslim radicals demand Assad's death, the head of not only the country, but a representative of the Alawite community (approximately 10-11% of the population of Syria.) Alawites — a Muslim sect, the Order, where the principles of Islam mixed with thoughts of Gnosticism and even of early Christianity, because the Sunni majority of the country does not like them. In addition, they are economic and military elite of the country (70% Alawite officers, they also make up a huge part of the 200 million contract prevail in elite units). For example, consists entirely of Alawite Republican Guard. They cause hatred and neighbors — the Saudis, because at the end of June 2011 the Syrian opposition was supported by the famous Islamic theologian and a member of the Supreme Council of Islamic Scholars of Saudi Arabia, Sheikh Saleh al-Luhaydanom. In his own video message this theologian called for a jihad against the Syrians "atheistic regime" of President Bashar al-Assad. Separately, Sheikh Saleh al-Luhaydan mentioned Alawite religious sect (often referred to as nusayrity): "These Syrian nusayrity — those on which the theologian Shaykh al-Islam Ibn Taymiyyah said, that jihad has to go against them first … Specifically, they assist the party "Baas" to the regime in Syria, Hafiz al-Assad and gave the officers of his army, "which at the current time, the overwhelming mess in the country.
Under attack, and the Syrian Christians of about 5% in the country. But they also were considered sufficiently privileged group, in the midst of local intellectuals, doctors, teachers, their up to 30%. Well, in the business, they are fine. Syrian policy of the party "Baas" focused on what not to oppose some other religious groups, and the lure into its ranks more promising and capable of all communities.
What will the victory of the opposition in Syria and Assad's fall in a strong government, it is clear on the adjoining Iraq. There, under Saddam Hussein, all communities lived in relative peace. After the occupation of the United States, does not abate war between Sunnis and Shiites, plus a de facto independent Iraqi Kurdistan. The Christian community of Iraq, it is countless, already two-thirds fled the country, the rest live on the "suitcases" in an atmosphere of constant terror. They run in the main to Syria or Iraqi Kurdistan.
It is clear that these signs of religious, tribal or national hatred can be found in at least some Islamic country.
Map compiled by the South American Dr. Michael Davey.
About the problem of Kurdish in Syria, Turkey, Iran and Iraq have heard many, but in the Islamic world, there are other areas of conflict. For example: people are the least known Berber tribes fighting (Amazigh) — is indigenous, not the Arab population of North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Libya) for their independence, which could also lead to the development of their own independent state. For example, in Libya, Gaddafi has established quite excellent contacts with the leaders of the Berber tribes. But segodnyaschy war has already led to a significant destabilization of the situation in the country.
In Egypt there is a conflict between Islamists and constructive Coptic Christians. "Muslim Brothers" after the overthrow of Mubarak declared policy of creating the country on the basis of Sharia, and the Copts place after the final fall of the military, make absolutely secular, democratic government. In Egypt, there was a trend of constant decline of the Christian population. In the case of the upcoming destabilization in the country, the old Christian community in Egypt, due to the full numerical advantages Muslims, is doomed to destruction. Christians are leaving from Egypt — in the U.S., the EU, Australia. In Egypt, there is not only a conflict of Christians and Muslims, and Muslims with each other, the various Sunni movements. In March 2011, the Salafis (the so-called Wahhabis themselves there) engaged in pogroms and arson of churches not only Copts, the Christians, and Sufi mausoleums. Attacks Salafi-Wahhabi Sunnis on the other marked in Jordan. They accuse them of "impiety" and "disbelief". Salafis — the names that environment from which gains its own fighters and eminent fabulous "Al-Qaeda". These sects have appeared in a huge number of states, because of their generous sponsors Saudi Arabia.
The situation in other Arab and Islamic countries
The main factor is naturally religious hatred and the associated economic, because the ruling group, a religious group submits himself to the main cash-profitable areas of activity. Say in Bahrain most of the population — is Shiites and the ruling dynasty Aal Khalifa — Sunni. Because the unrest in Bahrain and caused such concern in adjacent Sunni country. They even brought back their units assist suppress Shiite unrest. In Iraq, after the U.S. occupation authorities took the Shiites and the Sunnis now an elite group of people were oppressed minority. In Saudi Arabia, the power keeps Aal Saud dynasty, and she locked the Sunni (Wahhabi) clergy, but in this monarchical state has a significant Shiite minority, which is sufficiently concentrated in the eastern province of Al-Hasa, which focuses a significant portion of the hydrocarbons of the kingdom. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the factor of migrants in all monarchies, they are a significant part of the population, and not a full-fledged, oppressed. An even more complicated situation — a Sunni-Shi'ite Yemen, in which a wave of Arab unrest has led to almost civilian war. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his clan — is Shiite Zaidi sense,
though, that in the state a lot of Sunnis. In other countries of the Arabian Peninsula, most of the population and the ruling group — is Sunni (Wahhabi).
In addition, for countries in the Arab world, the Islamic world is very characteristic of intra-regional competitiveness, the struggle for influence between the individual countries and groups of countries, this leads them to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. Support the opposition groups, parties, movements, and right up to the terrorist and insurgent movements. Thus, the rivals were Saddam Hussein's Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Libya, Gaddafi did not adored the monarchy of the Arabian Peninsula, is very proactive, passionarnym favorite was Colonel. This was one of the reasons the Libyan war. Thus, the requirement to make an unmanned zone over Libyan government has identified the Arab League. Some Arab countries have joined the Western coalition, Qatar took to trade Libyan oil. They fought with him for the impact on European favorites, ultimately overpowered Saudis.
Saudi Arabia and other Sunni monarchies opposes the Alawite Shia Iran and Syria. For Tehran, it would be perfect, cause a split, the destruction of the Sunni monarchies. Same Bahrain, in Tehran believe historically Persian territory. Tehran has its own national minorities — Kurds and Azeris
We must not forget "neosmanskie" Turkey's ambitions. In Ankara, believe that these lands belonged to the Ottoman Empire, and therefore are usually included in the scope of the impact of Turkey. New favorites Turkey, cleaning military, secular elite, ready to fight for the leadership of the Islamic world. And even willing to slaughter their "pieces" in the event of the collapse of adjoining states, for example, northern Iraq. Here is the situation in Syria — Turkey has not once aggressively sought to suspend military operations against "peaceful protesters."
The artificiality of the borders
Need to clearly understand that today's borders are artificial, they are almost arbitrary features of European colonizers. Many countries do not even exist in the minds of the local elites, until they came up with the British, for example: Jordan, Bahrain. The real Islamic countries — Iran, Turkey, and the weight of the Arab countries it would be logical to make a unified Arab power, the center of the Arabian Peninsula. Worthy of its own country's Kurds, Berbers.
It is clear that as just drew those boundaries, could just as easily change them. Just need the political will, significant financial resources and contacts. All this is the Anglo-Saxons have.
Almost redrawing maps began with the invasion of the U.S. and NATO in Iraq — in 2003. Former Iraqi countries have not, there are Iraqi Kurdistan in the north, Shiite education in the south and east, and Sunni lands in the deserts of the west. The rationale and activities of Iran and Turkey against the Kurds. Iranian and Turkish troops are or were true military actions in northern Iraq, Baghdad did not respond. Ignored this fact and the United States. According to the latest at the official level.
"Signals" from the West
Back in 2006, retired Lieutenant Colonel Ralph Peters (who worked in the State United States Military Academy, was a member of the Cabinet of Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence in the Department of Defense, the creator of many works devoted to the strategy) in the article "Blood Borders" in the edition of Armed Forces Journal published a map " new Near East. " It is dissected by Saudi Arabia — will be created a new theocratic government with the Islamic holy sites of Mecca and Medina. Created a new Shiite government consisting of southern Iraq, Kuwait and parts of today's Saudi Arabia. Created independent Kurdistan, dismembered Pakistan.
There are other ideas on how to "arrange" the Middle East. South American Dr. Michael Davey of the French Institute. Fransue Rabelais, it attracts the lecture and the Pentagon in his article "Upgrade Near East" reports that the development of new countries to adhere to the rules of the U.S. President Woodrow Wilson's "every nation in its own territory." But for all that you need to take into account the strategic interests of the European powers. It reminds of so-called. "Axis of evil," which at the time was officially recognized in the United States — Sudan, Iraq, Syria. Sudan has officially broken up, Iraq is divided by de facto, on the order of Syria. From Syria should remain small Alawite government on the coast, the rest of the Sunni area to merge with the Sunnis of Iraq, in the new government. Liquidation will allow the country to quit the Syrian Golan Heights for Israel.
Having lost the support of Syria, Lebanon Israel's adversaries are crushed and dismembered Lebanon to the country's Shiite and Maronite Christians. In place of Jordan will be created Palestinian government in exchange for the assignment of East Jerusalem to Israel. Saudi Arabia, both in terms of Ralph Peters, will also be dissected. This will allow to solve the problem of Islamic extremism, Wahhabism, which is sponsoring the Saudis would kill their monopoly on the relevant provisions of hydrocarbons.
Another option offered to new countries magazine Vanity Fair, he interviewed four experts — the historian David Fromkin, a diplomat who worked in the Middle East, Dennis Ross, as scientists Kenneth Pollack and Daniel Byman. They are considered to be dismembered Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt will be split into two countries — the urban region in the Nile Delta and western tribal region. In the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar will add, of their form a new democratic, secular, liberal government. Levant region on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea will become a cosmopolitan area, the type of city-states of antiquity.
Therefore, it is clear that in the West there is agreement on the need for "restructuring" Near East, Arab, Muslim worlds. The only question is which way will be the dominant power, military power, it is very expensive, troublesome. Therefore, the method of "democratic revolution" with the support of NATO forces (if the favorite country like Gaddafi will resist), apparently as before will be in charge.
It is understood that after the crush Libya, Syria, Iran, in line to be Russian Federation (and the creation of new cards in place of the Russian Federation has long Renders) and China.
Map of South American Lieutenant Colonel Ralph Peters