Prospects for the development of the situation in Syria and around

Prospects for the development of the situation in Syria and around

Settlement of the Syrian air defenses on June 22 Turkish "Phantom" in Latakia further aggravated the already very tense affairs between Syria and Turkey, but contrary to forecasts of a number of professionals are not pushed the two countries in a large-scale armed confrontation. Why?

Myagenkaya understandable reaction

One of the reasons that Turkey was limited to a visible concentration of troops on the border with Syria, is, as it can be assumed in Ankara's unwillingness to participate in a large regional war without the support of NATO troops, of which it is. Specifically, since the Turks acted in 2011, when civil strife broke out in Libya. No one else but Ankara has initiated a transformation of the French-British operation against Gaddafi's troops, undertaken at the initiative of the Arab League, in the operation of the North Atlantic Alliance. At the current time, the position of Russia and China, which might block the adoption of UN Security Council resolutions, the right to legitimize similar stock NATO members, excludes (at least until the latter) developments on the Libyan scenario.

Another reason is comparable myagenkoy Turkey's reaction — vneglasnaya obstruction war with Syria by the Turkish military command, demonstrating such makarom their attitude to the continuing pressure on the army, including the arrest of the generals, the ruling Justice and Development Party, led by Prime Minister RT Erdogan . With all this military leaders rely completely on certain arguments, including the following.

It is possible that the Turkish army would have to fight on two fronts-uh. In Syria — with the Syrian army and local militias (in coastal areas), also with the Syrian Kurds (in the mountainous inland provinces). And in Turkey. The fact is that in the Syrian Kurdistan dominate fighters of the PKK, made an alliance with Damascus, who shot all restrictions on their activities. And so the attack on Syria is fraught with long and bloody terrorist and sabotage and guerrilla war in Turkey Eastern Anatolia with the inevitable role of the PKK units based in Iraqi Kurdistan.

It is logical that Turkey is currently being limited to the creation on their area of Syrian refugees camps (up to 40 thousand people) and militants, training and equipping the latter is involved in information warfare and subversion against Syria. But less.

A delicate balance between Ankara and Damascus depends on many other factors. Erdogan takes a brutal position, but is not ready to escalate the conflict. Assad does not want war and tries to avoid it. In turn, the Gulf monarchies are doing everything possible to provoke the Turkish-Syrian clashes, but without much of success.

Cohesive "circles"

Meanwhile, more and more information and economic impact is on the coming environment of the Syrian president. Sponsors and organizers of the Syrian civilian war, among which the major role played by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have put their trust to initiate a coup in Damascus and remove Assad hands of any of his associates. But the prospects of such scenarios are not clear, because it is not similar to note the close connection the highest echelons of the Syrian Alawite elite, which, obviously, there are differences, corresponding to at least some "of the Republican Dynasty," but they do not go beyond the bounds of reason.

If Bashar al-Assad will be either eliminated or arrested, or leave the country, it does not guarantee the preservation of the mandatory features and accessories and his Alawite clan as a whole, and their inevitable decline as a general of the ruling elite. As can be seen, the betrayal in the higher echelons of the Syrian administration is unlikely.

Prospects for the development of the situation in Syria and aroundHere it should be noted that the main solutions in Syria sees at first "inner circle", with which the President consults on major issues. The absolute top of Anisa — my mother and widow of Bashar Hafez Al-Assad. Apart from it, this group includes the head of the country's brother Maher al-Assad's cousin and chief bodyguard of President Dmitry Mashalish, curator of special services and adviser M. Nasif, Bashar's uncle and brother Anisa M. Mahlyuf, his son and the chief treasurer of the "family" R. Mahlyuf.

There is also a "second circle" of power, once a week to make operational decisions, recommendations on the situation in the country, which are passed to obtain sanction for the implementation of "inner circle": A. Shaukat — sister's husband Assad, H. Bakhtiar — the next curator of special services, M. Bahtiyan — Deputy Assad's party, D. Raja — Minister of Defense and Turkmani — Assistant of the President.

Betrayal of naming any of the above persons at the theoretical level is not ruled out a legitimate scenario for Riyadh and Doha with them their history komplotov and palace coups. But the Syrian system of checks and balances, which was built more Hafez al-Assad, lets just right to identify and neutralize such a traitor in the name of the collective interests of the clan.

Loosen the air defense and air

Together with the fact the military pressure on the regime is on the rise: the unit of Syrian rebels, fueled supply guns receiving reinforcements and continued funding, do not reduce the activity. Another fundamental direction in which the concentrated efforts of anti-government groups, is the army. Raspropagandirovanie troops to their transition to the enemies of Bashar al-Assad can play a major role, depriving Damascus to support the only force capable of great fight with insurgents.

The main role for the probable future interventions, the experience of Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya, where Western bloc aircraft operated effectively in a free mode to play the neutralization of the Syrian Air Force and Air Defense. It is, incidentally, not only minimizes the loss of the aggressors in the future, but at the present time would leave the government troops without air cover, which plays a major role in counter-terrorism operations. The anti-government propaganda provoked last May desertion and a partial shift to the opposition personnel of anti-aircraft missile battalion in the town of Homs. During the day before the destruction of the Turkish reconnaissance aircraft, June 21 Syrian military pilot Colonel H. Hamad fled to Jordan on the MiG-21. But these incidents are one-off and not have acquired a mass character.

Significantly more severe factor weakening the Syrian air defenses (60 thousand people), is the large number of obsolete models of arms and military equipment to parts of the Syrian Air Force and Air Defense. Acquired in the 70's and 80's of the AME in need of repair or modernization. Combat readiness of some units in question, though not to the entire system to protect the country from the air strikes. Thus, according to media reports (data V. Yurchenko, IPM) Ukraine in 2002 has put the Syrians several radar stations "Mail", and our homeland from 2008-2010 — anti-aircraft missile and gun complexes "Armour-C1." Moscow also gave Damascus effective electronic warfare (complex &qu
ot;Depot") and to assist in the improvement of the S-125 (brought to the level of "Pechora-2M"). In 2007, a contract was signed for the supply of eight divisions of the Russian Federation Syria medium-range air defense system acts "Buk-2ME."

However, the implementation of contracts for the purchase of Syrians S-300PMU-2 modernization of MiG-29 fighter aircraft and the purchase of 24 MiG-29M/M2 at the current time at least difficult, if not probable. The need for a balance in its relations with the West, the experience of Russian arms exports to conflict situations in Iran and Libya are forced to oscillate in this. Last emphasizes the destructiveness of everyday for Middle Eastern partners of Russia and attempts to minimize the slowness of the purchase prices to the detriment of the speed the conclusion and implementation of agreements.

Syria's air defense forces are in their own part of two divisions, 25 anti-aircraft missile brigades (up to 150 cells), anti-aircraft artillery regiments and two brigades of troops radio. They are equipped PU 685 SAM (S-75 — 320, S-125 "Pechora" — 148 "Square" — 195, C-200VE — 44 "Wasp" — 60 "Buk" M2E — 18), 36 ZRPK "Armour-C1" MANPADS "Arrow" and "Needle" guns caliber 23, 37, 57 and 100 mm, of the P-12, P-14, P-15, P-30, P-35, P-80 radio altimeter PRV-13 and PRV-16. In defense of Syrian Army has 55 SAM close action ("Strela-10" — 35 "Strela-1" — 20), and 4000 MANPADS "Arrow" and "Needle", up to 2,000 anti-aircraft artillery guns (100 mm KS- 19, 57-mm C-60, a 37-mm guns, ZSU-23-4 "Shilka", ZU-23-2). Fighter aircraft Air Force has 309 aircraft (40 MiG-29, MiG-30, 25, 80 MiG-23, MiG-21, 159), based on 21 airfield. All this is quite possible to apply a certain enemy damage, but not enough to reflect the massive strikes of modern air force and navy NATO.

Turkish spy plane was shot down by ground-based anti-aircraft gun mounts to a height of 2-a-half miles above the Syrian territorial waters (at least so say the latest in Damascus) as part of the permanent missions at the apparent unwillingness of the crew to the fact that it will be open fire. Experience a collision of aircraft and air defense systems to Syria, the Israeli Air Force in Lebanon in 1982, the act of combat aircraft Jewish state over Syrian territory right up to nedavneshnih far (including an operation to destroy a nuclear facility in 2007) does not inspire optimism about the possibility of Damascus to resist the enemy, an order of magnitude more massive than the IDF. And after a blow to the outside of Syria will be dealt with continuous attacks, sabotage and terrorist acts filled with modern instrument militants inside the country.

Pressure outside

The measures taken by the government and the army of the Syrian Arab Republic to win the war and civilian repel a possible anger, lack of fuel is complicated because of EU sanctions (cease exports to the SAR of gasoline and diesel fuel). In general, the effects of the embargo could partly mitigated by supply through international intermediaries (including AOT Trading and other Swiss companies, the Venezuelan Sitgo), and Iran (with limitations due to international sanctions against Tehran itself and the lack of fuel in the domestic market of Iran). Thanks to cooperation with Venezuela in 2012 Syrian port of Baniyas has been delivered more than 47 thousand tons of gasoline and diesel fuel. But the pressure to Cyprus and Switzerland, from which almost all of the fuel depends Syria, can be increased, reducing their ability to stuff Damascus.

As for political initiatives and loyalists, and his enemies, they stalled. The adoption of the constitution on February 27 announced the latest ploy Assad tries to "change the country without changing anything." Carrying 7 May 1963 with the first multi-party parliamentary elections in what was the role of 51.26 percent of voters and 11 political organizations, other than the ruling Arab Baath Socialist Party ("Baas") only whetted passion. After winning the National Unity bloc captured 183 of 250 seats, which went to "Baath" and its allies from the Progressive Front government. As a consequence, the purpose of June 5, Prime Minister Riyad Hadzhaba and the formation of his cabinet ministers did not appease the United Nations, where passion fueled Western, Turkish and Arab envoys. Washington, Brussels and Ankara will continue to seek the removal of Assad (who are not on the other as a bloody dictator) of power and produce in this regard, continuous and strong diplomatic pressure on Russia and China.

Specifically, as the media background to such pressing need to consider the campaign in Arab and Western Electric and print media on the military and political support of the Moscow Damascus regime. World society they say about "the presence in the country of Syria 3 thousand Russian special forces" and the supply of Damascus "attack helicopters", "Assad agreed to provide shelter to the Russian territory." Inconsistency of this awareness campaign at the highest level, including the apparent contradictions that forced the Pentagon to disavow the words Municipal Secretary Hillary Clinton show spontaneous anti-Syrian South American operations management, its unwillingness to conduct targeted for Near East Policy, departmental divisions and weakening the effectiveness of the state apparatus, even in matters principal for the U.S. administration in the pre-election period. All this coincides with the failures of NATO military policy in general and the United States as it is in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, the analysis of which can provide attenuation block in several areas, including coordination, provision and financing.

Make-up troubles

The new chairman of the opposition Syrian State Council (SNC) Abdelbasset Seida — a compromise figure. He is a Kurd, but does not enjoy the influence even in the middle of the Kurds. SNA was deliberative forum, failed to make propaganda and fund-controlled "Muslim Brotherhood", which held its constituent his supporters as "independent", and plays the main rival in organizing opposition to the Syrian countryside — the secular National Coordination Committee (NCC ). The chances of conciliation are zero.

Kofi Annan's plan, initially unrealistic, completely failed. The requirement for the resignation of Assad's opposition blocked the initiative to establish a government of national unity, and left as the only scenario armed confrontation. This has an impact on loyalty to the regime initially neutral to the authorities of the Sunni bourgeoisie, prompting traders strike on May 28 in Damascus and Aleppo, including as a result of criminal activity Alawi shabiha groups that support the army.

Now the militants are kept under control at night to 70 percent of the population and Fri Sunni neighborhoods in large cities. Their days are occupied by the army and security services. It should be noted that, contrary to propaganda antiasadovskoy far not all deserters from the army to join CAP militants. So, most of the 1,500 deserters from the subordinate minister of defense 4 Sunni divisions stationed on the border with Israel without fuel and ammunition (15% of personnel), just hiding in the counties and cities of Deraa Quneitra.

In the fighting on the side of Damascus at the current time, the Iranians are involved in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and Lebanese militants "Hezbollah", including as instructors to conduct counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations. At the same time, Iraqis from the "Mahdi Army" Moqtada al-Sadr withdrawn from Syria, although the Iraqi pilots involved in the fighting, compensating for the loss in personnel of the Syrian Air Force, in part to propagandize the opposition. Hamas is not supported neither Assad nor his enemie
s, so that the vast majority of the favorites group had left Syria and moved to Jordan, on the ground that the currently accumulated up to 80 thousand Syrian refugees.

The main pillar of the regime asadovskogo in the Army is the 4th Division, commanded by the president's brother — Maher. Are heavily involved in the purges of Islamists in general and the Sunnis as their support on the ground mostly Alawite shabiha groups that are formed Hafez Assad and are now at the beginning of his nephew Fuaza. Specifically, they act as an act of retaliation led to a massacre in the town of Hula and escape from the town of Homs to 80 percent of the Sunni population. Apart from the Alawites, which in the case of the fall of the regime will be guaranteed teeter on the brink of liquidation, the mode can be based on the Circassians, and, as indicated above, the Kurds (though only in the last inhabited areas). Neutrality Christian Assad also guaranteed: the case of Lebanon, Iraq and Egypt shows the inevitability of de-Christianization of Arab States, came under the control of Islamists.

The factions that make up the fights against the Assad regime Syrian Free Army (SSA), on a regular basis are provided with modern instrument (including rocket-propelled grenades, mortars and machine guns mnogokalibernye) and ammunition. Recently, the expected supply of militants MANPADS and anti-tank missiles from U.S. stores in Qatar and Germany at the expense of Riyadh and Doha. Party tools and equipment arrive at the main Syrian opposition through Turkey and Lebanon, but some weights and go through Jordan.

Training Syrian rebels in the South American country of Turkey engaged instructors, which confirms the U.S. intention to kill mode Assad, regardless of the outcome of the diplomatic dialogue with Russia and China. Weapons and funding Islamist units are made directly by Saudi Arabia and Qatar apart and bypassing the SNA and other "skylights structures" the Syrian opposition. The influx of Islamists in the "holy war" against Damascus is provided including through such embarrassing for Western ally in the fight against the "dictatorship of the Assad regime," as manager of "Al-Qaeda" Ayman al-Zawahiri, which February 11 declared jihad al-Assad, calling on all Muslims, especially the Sunnis of Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Iraq to join the "Syrian revolution" to overthrow the anti-Islamic regime.

Literally, the successor to Osama bin Laden said, "Other, not counting the elimination of the regime, there is no solution. Do not count on the West and Turkey … are pinning their hopes only to Allah, for their sacrifice, struggle and resistance. "

By the way, the funds allocated to the Syrian opposition, priemuschestvenno spent for military purposes: despite the propaganda support of "protecting the rights of civilian populations and refugees," the humanitarian needs of the beginning of the Troubles in Hong allocated less than 5 million dollars. The main currency flows flowed soldiers from Assad's regime after the conference, the "Group of Friends of Syria" in Istanbul. This is 500 million dollars from the monarchies of the Gulf, listed through charities and special accounts in Turkish banks, 100 million dollars appropriated by the SSA Tripoli (other than the payment of expenses "for the tickets, and treatment" Libyan volunteers), and 150 million dollars ("for humanitarian purposes") from the EU.

Clearly, a significant portion of these funds (for humanitarian tranches over 70%) will be plundered, but also on the active conduct of hostilities is enough. Perhaps the only one in the region who are trying to overthrow Assad — Israel. Although it is to defend it, he will not.

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