Poland comes to represent a threat to Russia's energy. We have a chance to outdo the Russian interests, as Our initiatives are unpleasant effect on the budget of Moscow. Therefore, we expect the enemy. The European crisis, however, slightly undercut us wings, but in the area of energy security is just a lot going on. Four of the project, which is focusing on Poland, will have an impact on the entire region, and if it can be a few more, these changes will be truly revolutionary.
The first project — a gas terminal in Swinoujscie (Swinoujscie), second — shale gas, the third — the nuclear power plant, the fourth — gas pipelines, bridges, connecting Poland with Germany and the Czech Republic. To these are added the priority plans of projects that is questionable: the energy bridge in Lithuania, Poland's participation in the construction of the Lithuanian nuclear power plants, bridges, gas network in Lithuania and Slovakia. It should be noted that no other country, part of the former Soviet sphere of influence, does not take much effort to gain energy independence from Russia, if we leave out the long-term contracts for the supply and transit of gas from Gazprom, which signed the Deputy Prime Minister Pawlak ( Waldemar Pawlak). However, they soon forced to admit the necessity of the moment, rather than winding down the path to energy freedom.
Suppose that the main projects will be implemented, although alarming delays in their implementation is already there. The more gas from shale development and the port of Swinoujscie, the less we will buy it from the Russians. The greater the capacity of the gas pipeline jumpers, the freer you can buy natural gas in the European market, and the easier it will be to supply it with the West in the event of a crisis comparable to the overlap of Russian gas supplies to Ukraine in the winter of 2008-2009. The faster the nuclear power plant will be built, the faster we will be able to reduce the use of coal in the energy sector and, more importantly, be able to sell surplus electricity, for example, in Lithuania, became dependent on Russian supplies after the closure of Ignalina NPP. To do so would require an energy bridge, because it is currently technically possible to supply electricity there we have not.
All these investments concern the Kremlin, as they reduce its potential revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons and electricity. Liquefied gas from Swinoujscie and Polish shale gas, if all goes really well, could replace Russian supplies in German, Czech and Austrian markets. Meanwhile, exports of energy resources — is for Moscow between life and death. The balance of the budget of the Russian Federation is dependent on oil prices and associated gas prices, the second factor — is the amount of operating reserves. He reduced. Russia, of course, there are huge, yet unexplored field in Eastern Siberia and the Arctic, but it does not invest in them, and, incidentally, does not have the relevant know-how, and so seduces co western companies.
Projects export liquefied natural gas from eastern Siberia to America failed, and China prefer to buy those materials in Australia than to use the supplies for the Russian gas pipeline. So that Moscow is really the only European market in which Poland may soon be confused card. In addition, the need for the EU's gas does not increase, as suggested by Gazprom and decreases.
In such a situation it is necessary to prepare for the "guerrilla" warfare. Its goal will be to shale gas, and then the gas terminal. A recent attempt a hostile takeover of the chemical enterprise in Tarnow Russian company "Akron" was the first salvo in this battle. The following will be performed, most likely from environmental organizations that will suddenly discover the extraordinary danger of the materials used in drilling for humans and the environment, and in an area where gas terminal is being built, suddenly settle some rare species of beetle. And by amazing coincidence, some mysterious people will begin to transfer large sums in environmental funds for his salvation. And when the NPP will acquire concrete shape to light crawl ardent pessimists who will promise a new Chernobyl or Fukushima, at least. We have already seen in the European Parliament a strong lobby in favor of the ban horizontal drilling in shale gas, but that was just the beginning. The scale of the threat to Gazprom's really great, and his answer will also be significant. And he will have to fight back.