Congratulations!

Yesterday there was an emergency situation at deducing communications satellite "Express-AM4" that Võsa elation on the part of the citizens "of this country." Different in joyful cry throughout the internet to, jubilation filled the hearts of millions of people. Resounding "Cheers" thunders so far. This is not surprising, because the recent successful conclusion apparta space, which has no analogues in the world, "Spectrum-R", could cause some doubt in the degradation of Russia’s space program. Some short-sighted citizens could decide that it is not all that bad. Of course, then there were hopes that the unit "Spektr-R" does not reveal its antenna, but, unfortunately, these hopes were not realized. And here it is, a balm for the soul, Hurrah! 

Now, sarcasm aside, and to the point. To begin, I would like to say that there is hope. The information comes from the media contradictory, but as far as I understand it, the problem now is that to find the satellite. If we believe that’s the source of this, blame, fault, due to which, the overclocking module, which was to take spetnik the desired orbit, "a wrong turn". And no one knows where. So now you just have to find what is on the orbit of the satellite was launched, and if he’s all right, it can work.

If the satellite will indeed be an unplanned orbit, and it is still operational, "Express-AM4" can still be used for other purposes with a probability of almost 100%, according to the source agency.

Of course, many will say that I am naive, say that it is clear to anyone that there is no chance, and if they were, "under this government," all of them early is not used. But that’s not the point. The chances are, no matter big or small, it is important that this is your country, and it is logical to hope, and above all want, what are the problems that she has successfully ventured. And in a global sense, and in local situations. This is normal. Lose hope, do not want to solve problems, that’s not normal. 

But it could be argued about the collapse of the industry, it is necessary that such a situation would occur more often. If it is not, then believe in the collapse of the industry they are, of course, will not stop, but then they do not have any arguments. They do not need them, they just look out the window, not visible satellites, then they are not, but there are also some stupid people who need more than a serious argument. And they are waiting, waiting for the failures, but when they do occur, immediately shouting "Well, I told you!" 

Media are also waiting for failures. Failures bring them good money. Some media have already agreed to what has been lost 5 units in the last 9 months. No, technically they are right, but do not specify that 3 of them were lost in a single accident. It makes sense to talk about the accident, and not on the number of vehicles. Then why in 9 months? It is necessary to consider the year. In the past year has been one accident, in which two, in 2009, no one, in 2008 alone again failed. And so on. 

In general, when talking about the collapse of the space industry, for some reason does not lead any statistics. But there must be some eloquent speaking statistics showing the breakdown. Do not be so would broads, and one year had collapsed. Yes, this year has not started too well, lost two satellites. But on the other hand, there was also a major success, which was not exactly in modern history — the output of outer components of the project Radioastron, Russia has returned to its science in space. Since the beginning of the year has made 16 starts, 14 of them successful. Of the 14 successful — derived 5 Russian satellites. Apart from foreign human spaceflight trucks on the ISS. 5 for various purposes has successfully put into orbit. Last year, by this time was 4 starts with the Russian satellites. That is, even though the two accidents, in Russia this year to fill up the constellation often than in the past. 

9 more planned launches with Russian vehicles. Of these, by the way, fingers crossed, Phobos-Grunt, another major Russian scientific program. On the whole of last year, I recall, one of the most successful in recent history, from that moment on it was planned 5 starts with breeding Russian vehicles. 4 of them were successful. Total for the whole year Russia made a successful start-ups of 8 for the whole year. This year is 5, and 9 more planned. 

Well, where’s the breakdown? I see the development, even with the annoying troubles. Well, tell me, I compare the next two years, but if you look at the dynamics, since the collapse in such a short period of time may not be visible. Very true thought! But it also means that, even if this year will be a few setbacks, this does not mean the collapse of the industry, just maybe, a bad year, or projects this year is much more complicated (and it is), so the chance
This error was higher. Well, let’s look at a greater period of time. Here I present schedule on their failed launches of the year. 

Percentage of failed launches by year
Percentage of failed launches by year
 Photo source:yandex.ru

What do we see here? Splash failed launches in 90 then decline again surge and decline again. What kind of a sequential collapse of the space industry can say, looking at a trend? If we look at the Soviet era, there were also spikes. And now, with the exception of this year, which has not yet ended, the value of failed launches, relative to their numbers, even below average.

I’m not trying to say that now is better than before. No, worse, much worse. We see that in the 80s it was much more stable, and now rides statistics. I’m just showing that there is no clear dynamics fall of the industry, when the year-on-year is getting worse and worse, and vice versa, we see an improvement and compared with the 90s, and since the mid-2000s. 

I understand if the collapse screaming in the year 2000, after 5 years of relatively unsuccessful launches, but not now, after four years of relatively successful. Why now when we come out in the past to schedule the best years of the Soviet Union? 

The graph is not the current year, the value of 1.142 at the moment, bad (although I’ve had worse), but as I said, one year, which also is not finished yet, it is impossible to judge the trend. Conversely, seen from the graph that this year out of the general picture

Now the number of launches. Yes, the USSR had about 70-100 launches per year, in the best years. In Russia now slightly more than 30 per year. It seems to be a nightmare, horror, falling by 2-3 times! But this is not due to the collapse of the industry, but only the fact that the satellites have become much more reliable and less likely to need to remove them. For example apparatus Glonass started as known in the USSR lived 3 years. Modern Glonass-K lives in orbit 10 years. This process, reducing the number of starts, the last years was worldwide. With that in Russia last year made more runs than the U.S. and China combined.

Take a look at the graph of successful start-ups over the years. Here we see that the number of runs steadily declined in the 90’s, but at the beginning of the decade was still the Soviet reserve. In the 2000s, the situation had stabilized at the same level, with occasional bursts. And now just a splash. So where is the degradation?

The number of successful launches by year
The number of successful launches by year
 Photo source:yandex.ru

Finally, I remind you that Russia actually regained navigation system GLONASS, which was destroyed in the 90s. Once again, I remind you of what Russia has launched a very complex project "Radioastron" to observe the universe. Resumed launches meteorological satellites, military satellites, satellites geomonitoring, and many others. Much of what we run now, we have not run for many years, sometimes decades. Is this evidence of the systematic degradation of the industry?

Let’s sum up.

1. So, if you look at the trend, you can see that from the mid 90’s the situation has deteriorated dramatically. And in the early 90’s, most likely, just keep on stocks of old Soviet carrier rockets and satellites, and when they ran out, we got what we got. But since the early 2000s, the situation began to improve, and stabilized at the level of the Soviet.

2. This year is not yet finished, that would draw conclusions, but it is obvious that he is not the continuation of the trend, but rather abruptly knocked out of her. 

3. To say that we have in the space industry everything is fine, so far, this year does not yet declare that all the problems of the industry are allowed. But Gauvreau that this year is the natural result
degradation, it is also impossible because of degradation in the graph is not visible.

4. The fact that we are more and more run their vehicles, restoring the group, what we resumed scientific projects in space, has no way to talk about the degradation.

Well zhopogolikam, it’s certainly on the drum, then I do not harbor any hopes. Therefore, they will continue to wait for the next failure. Well rejoice with you, thank God, is not often a cause for joy.

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