Those who calls Ukraine to the EU — not friends, but quite the contrary.
EU rule from Frankfurt, Germany and digging its own grave.
Russia needs to create an alliance with Europe, which is only able to reflect the proclivities States and Britain to the continent.
Very soon will be war in Iran. The dollar will fall, but the euro will come to life.
That’s a prospect. No, maybe it will not come true, and the author of the forecast Giulietto Chiesa, Italian politician and well-known political analyst and former MEP, antiglobalist, better known in this country as the author of the film "9/11" about the events of September 11 in the United States itself, said, would be happy to be wrong.
Well, let’s see. The more so because the wait is long. After 3-5 years, I am sure Mr. Chiesa, the world is changed beyond recognition.
Do without "suicide"
"But we have something that is waiting?" — Try to find out the interlocutor, meaning not all the same the world in general, and specifically Ukraine. And through a prism, so to speak, the movement towards the EU.
We just talked last Monday, December 19, when Kiev lasted talks "about the Association Agreement, which should pave the way for the technical completion of the final text of the document."
This clever interlocutor quoted passage, where once again — the fog, and again it is not clear: roughly speaking, we basically take the EU again or not?
In the end, according to the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who recently put it quite clearly, saying, "Europe — on the edge of the abyss", then why did we go there to burst?
"Yes, I too believe that the European Union is in a great crisis — reasoned Dzhuletto Chiesa. — Nevertheless, I do not think that the EU is "mortal danger."
Without a doubt, it will retain its fundamental forces, if only because the European Union — and the volume is too powerful to die at once like that, and especially not "commit suicide."
But we must remember that now is only the beginning of the crisis. And the first country to be waiting for the global shocks will become the United States of America. They are mired in debt that can never pay. And the U.S. debt is incomparable with debts of all other countries combined.
Thus, I can predict two scenarios for 2012.
The first option in the next year, the dollar will be devalued by at least 30% relative to its current value. As the U.S. debt is so fundamental that level the situation is possible only by devaluation. Thus, a 30% decrease external debt.
Incidentally, with regard to the euro, then it is unlikely to be at risk of disaster. Not only that, I am afraid that after a year the euro will be more than it is now.
But I only said about the first scenario, in my opinion, "painless". And now for the second version. So, now in the world, as though it may sound straightforward, there is a cruel confrontation, I would say, "fight" between the United States and Britain on the one hand and Europe — on the other.
Last "battle" will be in 2-3 years. And no matter how over, but in any case it will change the whole balance of the West. That is just a couple of years, and even before the western world as we perceive it now will be completely different. But the main thing I do not rule out — one of the components of this scenario will be a war. I think now its plan.
The first victim of this situation would be Iran. Because the war in Iran — the easiest way especially for the United States to burn their design book. That’s the war I’m really scared. But at the same time as all conspired to predict the demise of Europe — this’m skeptical. "
We speak of "Europe", we mean "Merkel"
"… And even though I said that the opposition is, and will be between Europe and the U.S. to the UK, but … When we speak of "Europe", then — what? — Continued Mr. Chiesa. — Increasingly, the term is more accurately "collective image" represents one country — Germany. And Germany now — it’s Ms. Merkel. Unfortunately, strategies pursued by the Chancellor, is shortsighted.
And even though Germany is resisting pressure Anglo-Saxon world, in fact everything is going to that Europe loses democracy. That is, imagine all those values which are so fond of saying European politicians are increasingly turning to fiction. Ceremonial.
And though we still perceive the EU as a community of sovereign states, in fact solutions is formally in Berlin, and in essence — in Frankfurt, where the European Central Bank.
Be that as it may, the "thanks" to the next victim of this policy of political, economic, financial, environmental and other effects of the crisis will probably Germany.
That is the greatest test in the coming years, if not months, expect the U.S. and Germany. Although this all backfire on the whole Europe. "
— There is Croatia and the EU are taking … And Ukraine at a crossroads. Although so many years even specific date were called and 2005, the first was in 2007 and the second, and the year 2009, even the "calculated" that it will happen in 2011 … But it is unlikely now that "calendar" remember those senior officials who promised an indispensable country for EU membership. But on the other hand, if we restrict the prospects of cooperation in the framework of a free trade zone with the EU — can, and that’s enough? Indeed, why, for example, we have their Schengen area? And so here goes halfway around the world without a visa.
— In my opinion, Ukraine should remain independent.
— Do you think that should not have to ask the EU?
— I think that you have a large and powerful neighbors — Russia and Europe. And Ukraine can make excellent use of their opportunities: to become an ally of both Europe and Russia. And simultaneously.
— Can not. We or both or these. No middle ground.
— But it would be a mistake to select only one option, exaggerating or downplaying the impact of the neighbors.
— "Kiev is ready to move to a later date the signing of the Association Agreement and the Free Trade Area with the EU if European leaders will not prepared to do that now because of Tymoshenko case" — that’s what he said on the eve of Ukrainian President on December 19. In general, it is what happened: the signing of the documents was postponed.
— You know, you have to be very careful with the Europeans …
— … Who want to dictate their terms to Ukraine. Simply put, they are not good are your friends. They — not good friends. Ukrainians have a simple way to find out who it is friend and who is not. As soon as someone starts to aggressively entice you somewhere, impose anything, you read the sermons — all of it must be far away. Ukraine has enough pride to preserve independence. I do not know how many of you have reasonable politicians …
— … Just a little bit.
— Then select a visionary! Especially in such a crucial moment, when the current phase of development is coming to an end.
— In what way?
— And the fact that we are now on the threshold of radical change in the structure of life on the planet. Because the last 200 years we have lived in an illusion: I think that the economy could be endless and endlessly as possible to use natural resources, etc. But now came to the line. And in order to survive, we must have a different mentality. Moreover, this new path will not develop a European …
— Very interesting. But let’s finish with Europe. I quoted a statement by the President about the EU and Tymoshenko. The European Union adopted a resolution, do you remember about "curtailing democracy in Ukraine," in fact "political repression." But I’d like to hear your opinion about the about the "Tymoshenko case." Also think that it is — a purely political?
— From a legal point of view, I can not and I do not want to give praise. Because the case is necessary to learn the ropes to draw conclusions. But I will say one thing: we Europeans …
— … Not only you, but we would like too.
— No, I was referring to the European Union … So the EU representatives have no right to lecture, to dictate terms in connection with the "Tymoshenko case." Because we do have a lot of their own problems. I emphasize — democracy, we turned mostly fiction. Decisions are made not by us, and in another place: for example, in the same Frankfurt, on Wall Street or even farther.
But I would be surprised if Ukraine has completed its democratic transformation. Obviously, this requires time. Serious problems with democracy, there are among you, and in Moscow and Rome, and Paris, and London. So we should just quietly sit down together and talk, to study the problems with mutual respect for neighbors in the European home. Maybe something supporting each other. But in any case, do not put ultimatums. You know, every country — quite different from the other and the history and mentality. So you can not forcibly export their way of solving problems.
Go to Africa!
— "Russia alone can not be a global player. And Russia and Europe may be decisive players. So I hope that there will be no alliance between Russia and the United States, but would be an alliance between Russia and Europe ", — this statement is found in the Italian press. You asked about the prospects for a new European "races, treasure …" By the way, if done correctly translated into Russian?
— Absolutely right. I said that the world is going to global changes. And the result was not long in coming — in 2 decades, very clearly "crystallize" forces that can influence the situation. They are not so much. Only 4: United States, Russia, China and Europe. And it is clear that the U.S. and China — are centers of opposition. If only because that in 5 years, China will become a half times more than today.
This country is moving to the rhythm of the gross national product — 10% each year.
Already, China is considered to be a fundamental player, which affects the development of the planet. The country consists of 1 billion 300 million people. But within five years, not only the number of the population will increase, but will change his way of life. This amount of people just like us, will consume products of plant and animal origin, traveling by car, use gas and electricity … And if now is a shortage of oil and gas, in a few years and even more so. ‘m Not talking about the deficit areas. Not for nothing that China has bought up half of Africa.
Similar problems — especially food shortages and energy — and the impact on the United States. You can admit the idea that the American president will tell the truth to the people? Like this: "Dear citizens! Our standard of living was so high that we are not able to hold it … And we must now negotiate with other countries, especially with China to jointly find a way out … "? I believe this scenario is unlikely.
Therefore more inclined to option Rise of the war. But how prevent such a development? As for me, there is one way out: a large alliance between Europe and Russia.
— In terms of the union? Do not say ‘accession to the EU ", but … What?
— Europe is Europe, and Russia — Russia. Benefits of the alliance is that huge potential of Europe plus a giant expanse of Russia and the distribution of natural resources … So this will be a defining moment that can save the world. No country, not a continent and the whole world!
— And why do you think that an independent player Russia can not be?
— Because in a few years the world will need a completely different path of development. In my view, it can only offer the alliance.
— So you keep saying "Europe, Europe". But when Russia offers Ukraine to join the Eurasian Union, it warns, or the EU, or Eurasia, with the proviso that if you choose the first, it will be a fatal mistake. And there is nothing to sit on two chairs … And are you telling about the "Alliance"! ..
— In Europe, strong enough that hostile to Russia. That’s why they are interested in a cooling of relations between the EU and Russia. The most striking example — the Baltic states, the same France or the UK. There are certain lobbies, who are working around the clock, fueling negative.
So against this background that Ukraine as a great and wise country can raw grata role. Either positive or negative. If in spite of, or rather — in spite of the neighbors will go to Europe, it could have negative consequences … You must remain independent, have their own line, its influence and its face. And it’s sure to play a positive role for both Ukraine and the rapprochement between Europe and Russia.
Thank Yushchenko and his company
— Not so long ago, in a briefing representative of "Naftogaz" say, say, Ukraine criticizes the "silent" position of the European Union in respect of the construction Russian gas pipeline "South Stream" … See how the leaves? How to Azarov, Yanukovych nor asked the Russian leadership to postpone the project — did not work. A number of EU countries — in fact, "in opposition" to us — ignore her as a European energy legislation and the "South Stream" is supported financially.
— Do you ask this question to Ms. Tymoshenko and Mr. Yushchenko as former managers. Why did they have created a situation in which a number of countries, not just Russia, were forced to retaliate? Ask, ask … And at the same time and ask: who advised them in recent years to create problems? Just remember: "South Stream" — a response to the stupidity of your previous managers.
— Resolution of the European Parliament calling for the cancellation of the election to the State Duma in Russia called "incorrect" and "gross interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state." You have long worked in Moscow, you can say, "fused" with Russia, have even become "a fighter for the rights of the Russian-speaking population" to refer to the press … And now I do not even know: can objectively evaluate the resolution the EU and the Russian reaction to it? Well although you do have an observer at the elections. So, perhaps, seen and disorders and rallies at the Swamp.
— Definitely: the elections were rigged, and this is easily seen by looking at the results of the vote, for example, in Dagestan or Chechnya. Even without testing shows that the number of votes for the "United Russia" — is unrealistic. But these facts — I emphasize — still does not change the balance of power. That is the result would still be the same as it is now — well, plus, minus … Most of the "United Russia" still would get. Although, in my opinion, the bad, that kept a high 7% threshold. It was a mistake that did not allow for the race several prominent parties. But then again: I’m not going to criticize, because we have in Italy and in other countries in the same United States, there are similar situations in the elections. There are disgruntled. But there are some objective results, and it is difficult to argue.
— "Putin’s rule will be crucial not only for the fate of Russia, but probably the whole world …" Well you just said so when the current Prime Minister is first registered in the CEC’s candidate for president?
— Specify his rule will be decisive for the whole world in the event that Russia will speak the language of peace with the world.
— How’s that?
— Here is an example. Suppose the United States more than a century in fact ruled the world. And that means — the language of the interests of all countries. Though primarily pursued their own goals, but people in the West, and not only believed that the primary role of America is justified. She says that seeks to save the life of all mankind. And in the face of its population sees his benefactor.
But look at Russia. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, as she said? The language of self-defense. They say, "do not touch us, we are strong, we give rebuff." And though it is very important for Russia, but is indifferent to the rest of the world. Therefore, I think Russia is obliged to offer clear to all policies. And the one that the vast majority of countries support. The bottom line — in the life values. Putin talked about it more than once. And in this I fully support it.
Again: no one owes to dictate their will should not, but if Putin will be able to talk to the world about the protection of mankind, it will be a new language, a new format and a very good policy that will lead to a substantial strengthening of the dominant role of Russia.
"Yeltsin was the destroyer"
— If I’m not mistaken, you were familiar with Yeltsin, and long before the presidency. Knew and his entourage. Do you think that the current team of the Russian president seems to continue the policy of Yeltsin or "turned 180 degrees?" Just one part of the Russian opposition insists on the first alternative, the other — that the "180". What do you think?
— Yeltsin was a real destroyer of Russia and the Soviet Union. He and his team are responsible for it. I emphasize — they are all in fact were the destroyers. And Putin …
— … Medvedev …
— … The successor course to preserve the unity of Russia. In this — the main achievement of Putin. So I hope that when he was elected in the spring of next year, the head of power, he will not resort to the help of remnants of former Yeltsin frames. The new team needs to understand where the world is now … Unfortunately, there is often some Russian leaders are not smart enough to realize that.
— Now, as far as I know, you are not a member of any of the parties.
— I lead a political association "Alternative", which has created precisely because the current party ideology obsolete, yesterday …
— The official biography of Mr. Chiesa said: "In 1979, he headed the Italian Communist Party in the provincial council of Genoa." Of course, not the first secretary of the Central Committee, however, communist ideology was close to you. Then there were other parties and movements. But mostly left-wing. Surely many of today’s leftists in Italy you feel at ease?
— I do not think now himself a socialist or a communist for a number of reasons. For many left-wing parties — and I’m talking about the European example — is only important class struggle, but few of them are interested in the fate of mankind. I was 5 years in the European Parliament. And there and seen that the Socialist Party is often not able to understand the new situation that has arisen in the world. Socialists blinders. Therefore, losing the election.
— Okay, but how two years ago in your life there was a Latvian party "ZaPcHeL — For Human Rights in United Latvia"? However, maybe you — Latvian roots? And then everything will be clear ..
— Such roots I have not. And in general with "ZaPcHeL" happened by accident.
— Only Well Latvians did not say not to take offense. But I was thrilled with delight while reading the newspaper Riga when they reported: "The Saeima deputies factions met with Juliet Chiesa, watched his film" 9.11.Rassledovanie from scratch "… "ZaPcHeL" you are treated almost like the Pope — is respected, but not easy, but "with an eye to the future" — say, that’s who will now represent us in the European Parliament!
— Honestly, I agreed to become a candidate for the European Parliament from that Latvian party because … I told him from the beginning. Back when I was a deputy, I was approached by the leader of the "For BEES" Tatiana Zhdanok. She asked, "Can you help us? You defend the Russian … And we would like you to represent our political force in the European Parliament. "
So I thought, since the rights of Russian speakers in Latvia is very bad, but in Italy there is not a party that would interest me, then why not accept? Although, as you know, nothing came of it. Not elected. But I had time to quietly pursue writing a book — and it was also to some extent help the Russian minority in Latvia. The book was called — "Latvian candidate." It was translated into Russian.
— Why do they call you "protector of the rights of the Russian-speaking population in the post-Soviet space"? Briefly explain. It is unlikely that such a mission is enough only that you have worked in Moscow correspondent of the newspaper "L’Unita" and "La Stampa". Tell the readers: what is the reason? Well, I do not know … Maybe Russian wife?
— Wife Italian, by the way, a journalist. She also learned Russian. And the son, who is 15 years old, Lyceum student — also can talk in Russian … No, it’s just different. I lived in Moscow, and it was a long period in the history of the country and around the world. I consider myself a happy person, because in my eyes there is a transformation, through his heart and soul I was missing the experience of millions of people. Probably just a different way and could not have … I sympathized with them.
— And so imbued with this feeling remains forever. Here is a great "adventure" with the Italian in Russia.
— Then, as the years passed and I became a member of the European Parliament, it is very keenly felt both within Europe are often not very affectional are Russian-speaking. For me it was very unfair. Therefore considered it his duty to use every opportunity to join in the fight for their rights.
— But in your heart you already consider yourself a Russian?
— I consider myself a man of peace. I work in Italy — I consider myself an Italian, in Russia — Russian …