Emmanuel Todd: After the Empire. Pax Americana — the beginning of the end. 2002.

The United States is becoming a problem for the world. Meanwhile, we used to see in this country a solution. Guarantors of political freedom and economic order over the last 50 years, the United States is increasingly becoming a factor of international disorder, supporting wherever they can, uncertainty and conflict.

They require the planet to recognize that some second-rate country are the "axis of evil" against which to fight and which should be destroyed: Saddam Hussein's Iraq — menacing in words, but insignificant as a military power, North Korea, Kim Jong-il — the first ( and last) communist society, to inherit power by right of primogeniture, a fragment of the past, doomed to disappear without any external intervention. Iran — another obsessive goal — a country of strategic importance, but clearly embarked on the path of inner and outer calm. Nevertheless, the U.S. government denounces it as a full member of the notorious "axis of evil." United States of provoking China, bombarding its embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo war, easily detectable by filling the "bugs" "Boeing", intended for the Chinese leaders. In between the public and the two arms sheniyami agreement on nuclear disarmament, they even provoked Russia by encouraging the transfer of the Chechen language radio "Free Europe", sending military advisers in Georgia, and creating permanent military bases in former Soviet Central Asia under the noses of the Russian army.

And here is the theoretical top of this militaristic feverishness: Pentagon organizes the leak of documents on the planned nuclear strikes against non-nuclear countries. Washington government spends so classic model of a strategy that is not consistent with the country of continental dimensions, "madman strategy" designed to create an image with possible opponents irresponsible countries to further intimidate them. As for the establishment of a space shield that destroys the nuclear balance and the subsequent improvement which would allow the United States to rule the world, terrorizing it, it makes us go back to the world of science fiction. How not surprising manifestations of distrust and fear exhibited by today states that determined its foreign policy on the basis of a convenient axiom is responsible for everything the only superpower?

Traditional allies and clients of the United States all the more concerned that they themselves are located near areas that are characterized by their leader as a potential threat. In this regard, South Korea recalls that she does not feel threatened by his arhikommunisticheskogo northern neighbor. A Kuwait claims that he no longer dispute with Iraq.

Russia, China and Iran — three of the country, which is the absolute priority of economic development, are today only one strategic concern: to resist the provocations of America did not respond to them, moreover, to fight for stability and order in the world — an unthinkable 10 years ago to turn the situation 180 degrees.

As for the main allies of the United States, they feel more and more confused and embarrassed. In Europe, where France only allowed herself a modest claim to independence, we are surprised to find some irritated Germany and frankly troubled UK — or rather of the most loyal allies. On the other side of Eurasia silence of Japan expresses rather a growing sense of their own awkwardness than unconditional agreement.

Europeans do not understand why America does not want to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue, though it has all the necessary features. They begin to ask yourself a question: Does not suit essentially Washington this eternal source of tension in the Middle East and the growing hostility of the Arab peoples against the Western world?

The organization "Al-Qaeda", the gang mentally unstable genius terrorists appeared in a specific and limited region — Saudi Arabia, although bin Laden and his henchmen hired several Egyptian and a handful of defectors from the suburbs of misguided Western Europe. America, however, endeavor to turn the "Al-Qaeda" in an evil powerful force, "terrorism", which is present everywhere — from Bosnia to the Philippines, from Chechnya to Pakistan, from Lebanon to Yemen, thus justifying any punitive action, at any time and anywhere. Giving terrorism status of universal force institutionalizes a permanent state of war on a global scale — the fourth world war, according to some American authors who are not even afraid of looking ridiculous, considering the "cold war" of the third world (Podhoretz N. How to Win World War IV / / Commentary . -2002. — Febr. P. 19-28.). Everything happens as if the United States sought by vague reasons to maintain a certain level of international tension, to a situation of chronic limited war.

After only a year after September 11, is the perception of America seems paradoxical. After all, in the hours that followed the attack on the World Trade Center, we have realized the depth and appeal of American hegemony: a recognized authority in the world, the wide majority of which believes that only the capitalist organization of economic life and democratic organization of political life is the only reasonable and possible. At this point, everything is clearly seen that the main strength of America lies in its legitimacy. The solidarity of all countries of the world were immediate: all condemned this crime. European allies declared their readiness for active solidarity, speaking for the connection of NATO. As for Russia, it took the opportunity to demonstrate that most wants good relations with the West. That Russia has provided the Afghan Northern Alliance weapon, which he needed, and opened for the armed forces of the United States needed strategic space in Central Asia. Without the active participation of Russian American offensive in Afghanistan would be impossible.

The offense struck on September 11 psychiatrists manifestation of America's vulnerability to some extent destabilized throughout the state, not only adults, but also for their children. This mental health crisis has exposed the mental architecture of the planet, and the only legitimate superpower which — America — as if it was an unconscious mainstay. And those who admire America, and those who hate her, reminiscent of children deprived of their older, they need either to obey it, or to deal with it. In other words, the crime of September 11 revealed the voluntary nature of our bondage. Joseph Nye's theory of "indirect power" has received convincing evidence: American dominance in the world based not only, or even mainly, not so much on the force of arms, as the prestige of the values, institutions and culture of America.

Three months later, the world seemed to have regained its normal equilibrium. America won, again becoming after several bombings almighty power. Vassals thought it possible to go back to business as usual, mainly economic and internal. The opponents were preparing to resume from the point where they stopped their eternal denunciation of the American empire.

Still, it was expected that the wound inflicted by the September 11 — however, relatively small compared with the suffering in the wars of the Europeans, Russian, Japanese, Chinese, and even the Palestinians — bring America into the common lot of humanity, will make it more sensitive to the problems of the poor and disadvantaged . The world dreamed: the recognition by all, rather, almost all the countries of the legitimacy of the United States authorities has led to the emergence of a true empire of goods, where the subject peoples throughout the world recognize the central power, and conquer Americans are subject to the ideas of justice. But at this moment the behavior of the United States in the international arena led to the initiation of the revision of their way. Throughout 2002 was again a trend toward unilateralism, which was noticeable in the second half of the 90s: in December 1997, Washington refused to sign the Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel mines, and in 1998 — the agreement on establishment of the International Criminal Court cases. The story seemed to be back on track, when the United States refused to join the Kyoto Protocol to limit carbon dioxide emissions.

The fight against "al-Qaeda", which would institutionalize the legitimacy of the United States if it was conducted with moderation and reasonably identified, on the contrary, many times increased irresponsibility. A few months look America, narcissistic, nervous and aggressive, replaced the appearance of the nation humiliated cute and necessary for our equilibrium. This is the situation today. But what is really going on?

Indeed, the most alarming in the current situation — that in fact there is no satisfactory model for explaining the behavior of America's motivations. Why the "lone superpower" does not present, in accordance with established after the Second World War, the tradition, the basis of his country, and reasonable dobronravnoy? Why has it become so active, generating instability? Because it is all-powerful? Or, on the contrary, because she feels that the emerging new world slipping out of her control?

Before proceeding to the development of motivational behavior of the United States in the international arena, we should get rid of the standardized image of America, which supposedly has one problem — the problem of excess power. From professionals Americanism us in this matter will not be any good, and the establishment thinkers can provide very reliable guides.

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