Experts say Ukragroconsult, that the situation with exports in the 2011 to 2012 in the Black Sea region is not unique. If Russia reaches record level in its history, Ukraine will surprise lower shipments. In such a situation, the fate of exports from Kazakhstan remains a mystery and a lot depends on the neighboring countries, but if the trend of lower exports from Ukraine continues, Kazakhstan can realistically go global.
Doubt that Russia otvoyuet their own place in the world market has run out.
As of August 6, the country had exported more than 2.5 million tons of grain, including 2.34 million tons of wheat, barley — 196 thousand tons. Exports by the end of July totaled 2.38 million tons, a record high for the month. Federal Customs Service reported that the rate of export of grain (including flour in grain equivalent) in July and the first week of August, the highest — more than 3 million tons.
The high rate of export diversification of export markets is provided.
Absolute leaders are Turkey and Egypt. In general, Russia in July this year exported grain to 43 countries.
Positive changes have also taken place in the market price environment. After a nearly two-month decline in wheat prices in Russia have started to grow.
Russian farmers have benefited. Meanwhile, the Russian wheat retains upside: it’s still cheaper than the American and French. But the spread between prices and reduced voltage increases.
Ukragroconsult predicts that prices will remain approximately at the same level. Expanding the geography of deliveries are still competitive freight rates and reduced confidence in major importing countries of Russian grain can guarantee the success of Russia.
USDA export forecast increase of Russia in the current year to 20-23 million tonnes from 18-20 million tonnes of further fuels the "export" the situation. A high-profile statements by the authorities of non-interference in the process of export in the current marketing year is encouraging for the global market.
Thus all the prerequisites for the implementation of forecasts exports to 20 million tons are available.