Growth in the manufacturing sector. Russia against the background of the world

The PMI manufacturing sector, which is calculated by the bank HSBC, in May reached 53.2 — this is the highest level since March 2011 In April 2012, the PMI index stood at 52.9 in March — 50.8. 

The volume of new orders received by the company's manufacturing industries, the eighth consecutive month of increases. An increasing number of export orders, the growth rate was the highest since November 2011 

The increase in the number of new orders secured higher employment and purchasing activity in the manufacturing sector. The growth of the purchase price was low, it is associated with a weakening of the ruble and higher costs for electricity and fuel. 

"The most amazing thing is that both domestic and export demand in the manufacturing sector of the Russian Federation in May continued to strengthen. How is it that such strong results PMI index were not on a par with the rather weak official data on industrial production and PMI data and industrial production coming from other countries? 



The article about PMI in March-April

 

 

PMI survey respondents reported a strong growth of economic activity in a group of manufacturers of consumer products. This is in line with the official statistics about the high rate of growth in retail sales and bank lending to the population. 

At the same time the results of the study PMI, representing a group of producers of intermediate and investment goods, are more aligned with the weaker trend in the index of industrial production, which represented more than heavy industry. 

Furthermore, in contrast to the main index PMI, the index of production in May fell, indicating a slowdown in growth, and this result in a greater degree coincides with the official dynamics of industrial production. 

Among other things, this year the government procurement of goods have become more account of the beginning of the year than ever before. As a result, the supply of new domestic orders from the state is more intense than usual at this time of year. 

With respect to the strong growth in demand in the export market, we believe that Russian exporters were able to capture a large market share at the expense of competitors from other countries. 

Indeed, a significant proportion of primary commodities in the structure of Russian exports in the overall weakness of world commodity markets leaves little room for alternative explanations. 

In any case, the recent strong performance of index PMI in manufacturing Russia can hardly be interpreted as evidence of the real autonomy of Russia on global economic trends, "- said the chief economist at HSBC in Russia and the CIS Alexander Morozov.

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