Harvest-2011 in Russia: there is cause for optimism

 Photo source:chistoprudov.ru

Participants of the Russian grain market in the current year have every reason to forget about last year’s colossal drought. The harvesting campaign covers every day more and more regions, experts and officials predict near-record harvest and large-scale exports, which will allow Russia to return the lost ground in the global market.

According to official data of the Ministry of Agriculture, harvesting is carried out in all federal districts of Russia.

On August 10 grains and legumes threshed on an area of 14 million hectares (32% of the planted area). Harvested more than 41 million tons of grain (in 2010 — 38.1 million tons). Yield of 29.5 t / ha, 8.2 t / ha higher than in 2010, and 2 t / ha — than in 2009.

In the South and the North Caucasus districts grain threshed on 80% of planted area. In the center is close to the equator cleaning (45% of the area), and in the Volga Federal District threshed grain from the area of more than 2.5 million hectares, accounting for 20% of the planted area. According to the ministry, farmers Siberia just beginning to harvest. On August 10 grains and legumes were threshed from the area of 86.1 hectares (1% of the planted area).

Wheat in the whole country threshed with an area of about 9.5 million hectares (37% of the planted area). Harvested more than 30.8 million tons of grain (in 2010 — 27.7 million tons). Yield of 32.5 t / ha (in 2010 — 24.1 c / ha, in 2009 — 28.8 c / ha).

Barley threshed with an area of about 2.3 million hectares (29% of the planted area), harvested more than 5.9 million tons of grain (in 2010 — 5.4 million tons). Yield of 26 t / ha (in 2010 — 18.3 c / ha, in 2009 — 26.1 c / ha).

It is worth noting that as the inclusion of new regions in Russia harvesting experts began to raise forecasts grain harvest this year.
Thus, analysts’ Rusagrotrans "in early August forecast of increased grain harvest in Russia in 2011 to 91.8 million tonnes (previous forecast — 90.9 million tons).

Including wheat crop forecast was raised to 56.4 million tonnes (previously — 55.8 million tons), barley — is left unchanged 15.8 million tons of corn — increased from 5.6 to 5.76 million tonnes .

Company experts expect a significant growth in the gross collection in the South and the North Caucasus region — to 32.48 million tonnes (2010 — 27.25 million tons). This is the second maximum figure in the history of post-Soviet Russia (2008 — almost 37 million tons).

In the Central District harvest is estimated at 17.88 million tonnes (in 2010 — 9.7 million tons, in 2009 — 21.55 million tons), the Volga region — 20.2 million tons (in 2010 — 6.55 million tons, in 2009 — 21.7 million tons), Siberia — 14.4 million tons (in 2010 — 13.36 million tons, in 2009 — 18.35 million tons ).

According to the July forecast "ProZerno", the grain harvest in 2011 in Russia will amount to 93.27 million tons. As the CEO of the company Vladimir Petrychenko, grain production in Russia this year, according to the forecast, "ProZerno", estimated at between 90-96,5 million tons. The lower limit corresponds to the pessimistic scenario of the forecast of the situation and provides a minimum level of gross harvest of grain in extremely poor conditions and planting and growing season and harvest. And the upper limit of the forecast, however, corresponds to the optimistic scenario development. "It is most likely we propose forecast gross collection in 2011, 93.27 million tons of grain," — said the expert.

V. Petrichenko believes that the projected growth in the Russian grain harvest in 2011 will not happen so much because of the expansion of cultivated area, and of course, thanks to the recovery grain yields even higher than in 2009. That is, it will be the second in the history of the average grain yield (after 2008 — 23.2 c / ha), it will be in 2011, 21.1 t / ha with a cultivated area, up 49.6% over last year’s failure at 14 , 1 t / ha.

Given the results of the first harvest and improve the forecasting yields in regions of analysts of the International Grain Company raised its forecast of grain production from 90 percent to 92.4 million tons. It is assumed that wheat production will reach 57.8 million tons (including triticale), barley — 16.3 million tons of corn — 5.6 million tons.

The company’s analysts also raised the upper limit of the forecast gross yield, which rose to 96.5 million tons.

According to IA "APK-Inform", most market experts predict the next harvest in Russia within 90-93 million tons.

According to Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Russia Andrei Klepac, optimistic forecasts of experts on high yield is likely to come true. Therefore, in his opinion, the question of grain purchase interventions in Russia this year will be very important.

"According to preliminary estimates of experts, the harvest of the current year expected to more than 92 million tons of grain. Application optimistic. Probably it will be justified. It is understandable that there will be pressure on prices. Therefore, the question of grain interventions will be relevant and this year ", — said Klepach.

Ministry of Agriculture of Russia while its grain harvest forecast does not update, but for the third time in the last few weeks increases the forecast of grain exports. So, Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrinnik August 8 confirmed voiced earlier forecast cereal harvest this year within the 85-90 million tons. According to the minister, the wheat harvest is 35% higher than in 2010. The ministry also predicted that in the current season Russia could export 20-23 million tons of grain.

In favor of the successful outcome of the harvest and the data say agrometeorologists. According to the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, during the second week of August at the prevailing European part of the Russian agro-meteorological conditions for harvesting are mostly satisfactory. It is also noted that the conditions for the formation of late row crop harvest in most areas of the Black Earth region will be mostly favorable, in the north-east of the Southern and North Caucasus federal districts — mostly satisfactory.

The only question that is being concerned about market experts — is the quality of grain. The problem lies in the fact that quality parameters uniquely define the harvested grain is not currently possible. Experts note that complete information about the quality of the grain yet. Consequently, market participants have to settle for piecemeal information and own estimates.

According to the State Organization "Center for evaluation of the quality of grain," this year in the Russian grain quality higher than last year. As of July 29 center examined 8 million tons of grain in eight grain-producing regions of the Russian Federation. The share of wheat was 73.7%, including a share of 3-grade wheat reached 26%, Class 4 — exceeded 47%. The share of milling rye amounted to 86.6%.

In general, the farmers of the southern regions of the country positively assess the quality of the current crop. At the same time, a number of regions (the center, the Volga region, some regions in the south) is informed about the high level of damage of wheat pests (especially bug-bug).

But, despite some uncertainty to the quality of the grain, according to all forecasts, Russia offers a rich harvest. And this is encouraging …

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