October 31. Scientists do not share the apocalyptic mood about weather events around the world. Similar changes were observed in the past. The winters were so warm that Ivan the Terrible Kazan could not take because of the Volga did not get up the ice, told the "Voice of Russia" Moscow State University assistant professor of climatology Paul Toropov (AUDIO)
Many residents of the central districts of New York, were left without electricity after the storm hit, "Sandy", move to the periphery of the city. The underground metro line is still not working, the buses do not go. However, the hurricane "Sandy" is not the only disaster that hit these days on the planet. At that time, as the eastern states of the U.S. are experiencing severe flooding in Canada — there was a great earthquake. In the province of British Columbia to the west of the country, magnitude quake was 6.3, reported by Reuters.
Floods in South America — flooded the capital of Argentina Buenos Aires. Bad weather descended on Vietnam — where the north of the country walked Shontine storm, which was the strongest since 2005. Suffering and Europe — an unprecedented flooding in Venice.
Extreme weather for the "Voice of Russia" said MSU assistant professor of climatology Paul hurry.
— Pavel, of course, in the form of weather reports from different parts of the world in my head some kind of apocalyptic thought. In the U.S., a raging hurricane "Sandy" in South America, flood, storm in Vietnam. Tell me, it's all kind of seasonal activity, or there is some tendency to climate change, and all the storms and binges elements ulterior motive?
— I would like to reassure our listeners in the sense that hurricanes, heavy monsoon rains, including freezing rain in the temperate latitudes, all of these phenomena, in general, it is normal. They have been observed in the past, been observed in the historical past, and many thousands of years ago. The question is, what is now, of course, due to the fact that the infrastructure is quite different, the economy is more vulnerable to these phenomena, of course, more attention, more interest. And the weather in this context becomes more and more popular.
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To say that now the frequency of these events once an order of magnitude, much more than, say, 100 years ago, in general, impossible. On the other hand, the climate really changed. Of course, does not change so dramatically, as is often said, and as is fashionable to say, but the changes are, of course, is, first of all they touch when it comes to negative consequences, coastal areas situated below sea level. But the apocalyptic mood I would have dispelled, to be honest.
— Pavel, You say the climate is changing. It varies on a single line or is it the same spiral scenario, when similar events were one hundred, two hundred years ago, and now it's all over again? Or do we experience something new on the planet?
— You know, at this point there are different points of view. You are quite right to say that such phenomena are observed. Moreover, it is often said that the modern warming is not unique, it's very intense. This is not true. In the same average age was warming. Approximately XV-XVI centuries warming was even more intense. Winters were very warm. Known fact that Ivan the Terrible Kazan could not take because of the Volga in the winter ice has got even. That is such a situation occurred.
But the specifics of the modern warming really exists, it lies in the fact that the temperature is increasing at an exponential rate, that is, with some acceleration. And it is associated with an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gases, of course, in the first place. Certain physical basis of this hypothesis is severe enough, but for now it's still a hypothesis, while any climatologist will not take the responsibility to say that the current warming is completely determined by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Of course, the contribution of greenhouse gases are, but how big it is, how it determines this one can only speculate some. Although, really, the physical climate models and numerical well enough consistently predict the ongoing climatic changes. That is, the physical basis of this hypothesis is.
— Pavel, I want to talk to you about forecasts. And, I'll start off with a fresh news. About two weeks ago there was a big story in Italy after the earthquake that destroyed a whole city. If you remember, there sentenced to six years in a group of seismologists, which are not expressly warned the authorities and, accordingly, the population of an impending earthquake. I can not ask you this question, because it has caused a lot of controversy. Actually it's right or wrong. How do you think it is responsible for the forecasts, which now provide a variety of scientists — seismologists, climatologists, meteorologists? Could there be a responsibility, as a minimum, the administrative? I'm not talking about the criminal, because, perhaps, of course, it's too hard, but at least the administrative. What do you think on this subject?
— The question is very interesting. For seismologists difficult to answer, but I still would have stood up for fellow scientists. Because even though I am not an expert, not a geologist, but I must say that the forecast earthquakes — is, in general, the thing in itself. As I understand it, they have there with this problem, which is probably why, they do so to apply strict measures were not necessary. Although again, I still do not geologists seismologist, they know better, perhaps correctly, it is hard to skazat.chto for meteorology, one needs a very clear distinction between what we expect and for how long.
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If we talk about long-term outcomes, of course, such sanctions are impossible because modern science is physically reasonable weather forecast for more than 5-7 days can not give. So, for example, criticize Hydrometeorological that failed with a forecast of the summer or winter or something like that, in general, impossible. Because seasonal forecasts in any case very approximate.
As for short-term forecasts, the situation is different here. I'll even give you an example. Aviation forecasters, those who serve aviation, just carry a very real, even administrative and criminal liability. That is, if the case of a flight accident, it first checks the weather forecasters, check how well the given diagnosis and prognosis of the synoptic situation. Such cases were when attracted. Accordingly, if the weatherman again to give a bad day, something bad happens with the weather … For example, now icy rain predicted perfectly, and in some situations, such as not, the sanctions are, in principle, possible. Although it should be very clear to see, it all depends on the situation. There are situations really unpredictable, and there needs expert judgment. Indiscriminately, of course, you can not judge people. And when the situation is quite typical, it can attract, of course.
— Thank you, Pavel, for your interesting comment. It was an MSU assistant professor of climatology Paul hurry.