In September, industrial production growth accelerated sharply

September brought the macroeconomic surprise. For the first time after months of apparent stagnation of growth in industrial production accelerated sharply, reaching 11%. Of course, today, only crazy people can make predictions as to whether this trend or a coincidence, but some analysts of "Expert" is one of these and relate. And it is precisely those analysts who predicted the crisis and fall of 2008, and that the nine-month period of acute post-crisis recession — in general, they sometimes can be trusted. Now, they believe that growth and rapid to continue. According to them, up to the end of the year the growth rate of industrial production will remain at the same high level. The question is: why would it? We do not see any macro-economic reasons, which could lead to a fracture of stagnant trend: the world economy in the doldrums, the money supply is not growing, investments are falling, the trade balance also decreased (although not critical) in response to a fall in exports and a slight increase of imports. The only macroeconomic setting that is growing — income population. In 2012, they grew vigorously. But can the consumer be sufficient domestic demand growth engine for the industry? Apparently, it can.

 

The current state is most similar to the long forgotten 2002, when the economy is as invisible to all began to grow rapidly. The nature of that growth was not incorporated in the strategies of the largest, and in the strategies of many small and medium-sized companies, which increased their capacity to postdefault period and, as they say, caught the new wave. They were assisted by domestic demand — in part consumer, part production. The influx of money into the economy, investment, strong growth in oil prices — it all started about a year. Then we treated it in a way that "thousands of businesses have started to realize their economic plans," and the combination of these implementations resulted in growth.

Rather, we are witnessing something similar. With all the enormous difficulties faced by the business, we can see the formation of many new trends that involve in the growth of economic agents. Ecological products — production and sale, logistics services of different power levels, a variety of ways to introduce energy-saving technologies and materials that are modest but numerous attempts to produce apparel and footwear in Russia, began to bear fruit and localization — foreign manufacturers gradually grows component suppliers . Here’s the set of the new trends that are visible to the naked eye too.

Anxiety inspires investment dynamics — these are reduced, and it would seem, it is contrary to the expectations of a rainbow. However, at the time the early 2000s rise of investment began a year after the start of economic growth (and why shalt not particularly seen). This phenomenon — the delay of investment in relation to height — is explained as: economic growth the most active economic agents a few months later started to shape positive expectations of a greater number of players, in response to the banks start to reduce the risk of subjective feeling, interest rates fall, allowing you to engage in economic growth is even greater number of agents. Thus, a new wave of economic growth, which, as a rule, there is no apparent reason. It is this spontaneous nascent wave — the main proof of the vitality of the economy.

Does this mean that the government can relax? Of course not. The more it will "play up" the wave, the more it will become more widespread. In general, the fact that we are in a position to move to the growth in the global stagnation, shows that we have a good chance over the next seven years to increase roughly by half the proportion of the middle class of the country, and with it, and drastically improve the overall quality of life.

 

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