Industrial output in March remained on the path of slow growth rate of about 2.5% a year — is the conclusion that analysts HSE on the basis of the analysis of the release of several hundred range of industrial products in bulk.
At the same aggregate score of Rosstat, showing a decline in industrial production in March compared to February by 1.2%, not quite correct because of undercounting calendar factors (leap year February). Experts CMASF also record the continuing trend of slow growth industry in the first quarter — by 0.2% on average per month.
Growth has provided high reduction primarily gas demand (average monthly rate of expansion of its production, as calculated by "experts" were in the first quarter of about 17% per annum.), And in the manufacturing sector — of building materials (25% pa) and metals (9 %).
A very high rate of increase in output demonstrated engineering production: production of office equipment (44% pa) and railway engineering products (42%), manufacture of medical devices (35%) and cars (19%). However, because of the extremely low weight of these dynamic sectors in Russia’s industrial production, their contribution to the overall index of industrial production did not exceed 1 percentage point. Nevertheless, this development reveals a general trend characteristic of current and anticipated structural changes in the Russian industry — the expansion of production, mainly due to the localized international brands in the country.
Among the activities to reduce the output that have made the most significant negative contribution to the overall dynamics of industrial production — production of chemical products, coal mining, publishing, printing and production of electronic components. Compressed — traditionally — the volume of production in the leather and footwear and apparel industry. In the first quarter, they were joined by quite intensively to expand to this production of rubber and plastics, as well as tools and instruments, although because of the small role of the industrial structure contribute significantly reduce output in the overall dynamics of the industry has been very small.
At the end of March, the Russian industry has exceeded the pre-crisis peak of production, made in July 2008, by 5%. At the same time, the pre-crisis peak of the real volume of investment in fixed assets has not been reached (difficulties in statistical evaluation of the measure does not allow us to give a reliable figure backlog, as a rough approximation, we can specify the range of 3-10%). Accordingly, reducing the demand for building materials and a wide range of equipment will be maintained in the coming months.