September 9, 2013. Rumors of an impending earthquake in the southern Baikal in 8 points scared of Internet users. Risk of damaging the earth shake more than a day discussed on blogs and forums Irkutsk and wondered if it's true or not. Correspondent "KP" tried to find out where that came from.
As it turns out, this is a paper prepared by scientists from the Institute of Physics of the Earth.
"In July Siberian regional center of Ministry of Emergency Situations sent to the regions long-term prediction of earthquakes on the southern Baikal, based on their findings, — said the deputy director of the Institute of the Earth's Crust Cyril Levy. — The papers contained a forecast of the devastating earthquake. "
Irkutsk scientists immediately said they did not agree with the findings of colleagues.
"To make an accurate short-term forecast of earthquakes at 7-8 points in the Irkutsk region is impossible, as it requires a strong instrument base, as well as technology," — said the chief researcher at the Institute of Earth's Crust Valery Ruzic.
The probability that a 5.6 magnitude earthquake, even in the south of Lake Baikal to happen in the next few months, is small.
"The documents that we have obtained are not disclosed technology or techniques or devices, which are made on the basis of forecasts. Also tell in advance when and where an earthquake will be impossible. You see, these technologies have not yet come up, "- said Professor Cyril Levy.
The scientist said that a rough prediction of earthquakes can be done if we take into account the historical facts. Based on data from previous years can be detected pattern — the strongest point in the Angara are in August and September, or in the winter, after the New Year. But the fact that they will be.