New Deal


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Another major rating companies clearly demonstrated that the restructuring of the Russian economy — a fait accompli. Over the last decade, four hundred largest companies simply have more than doubled their total revenue (up to 2.5 trillion dollars), but stopped carrying pronounced» raw» color. The share of oil and gas sector decreased from 33 to 20%, and engineering — has grown from 6 to 10% faster pace is the industrialization of agriculture. The leading position left the financial sector, almost equal to the oil and gas (18% of the rating). "

It’s not nonsense and not an attempt to sugary pre-election forecast. This is an excerpt of a possible commentary to the rated 2021, our vision of large business in a decade.

We talked for more than two dozens of managers and owners of the largest companies (the most interesting interview published below). And that their predictions (even with a fair adjusted downward) laid in outlook "Expert-400" -2021. They know what to do, they have the necessary resources. Finally, for their predictions, unlike many politicians, they answer their own well-being. That is, at least their voice is worth listening to.

Actually, on the restructuring of so many states and so many years, we have carefully searched and found no sign of her, that first fantastic weather has put us into a dead end. Sequential analysis showed: it turns out, fat zero were not in vain. Drop by drop, accumulated changes in the infrastructure of the economy, despite the enticing offshore, part of the money invested in the business industry. The country turned to growth. This growth has emerged, but so far little noticeable from the crowd. The rate of, for example, the financial sector (for the five years 2004-2009, it increased almost three times) economists of other countries and not just a dream. But we are used to this miracle and did not give it much importance, because the share of finance in the "Expert-400" did not exceed 8%. Now another thing, every move financiers will be felt for a rating. Another example — the car industry, the transition from the assembly of foreign cars to the localization gives the result. Aviation — from single items, we seem to go if not to the hundreds (both Airbus and Boeing), so to dozens of long-haul aircraft per year. There were modernized industry, the food industry. And there are dozens of examples.

What is the reason for this reversal? Well, certainly not in the "invisible hand." Since 2004, we have continuously talked about the forbidden then industrial policy. Finally it was legalized, and now makes its first fruits. Later, we talked about the need for major national projects that integrate confidence and resources, and expertise. They are: the KLA and USC, the modernization of Railways, the Sochi Olympics and the football World Cup, now — Greater Moscow. Only their implementation is already yielding significant growth potential.

Further, the innovation. "Expert" They fought for more than a decade ago, causing widespread confusion. Now an innovative rhetoric is already firmly established in everyday life. However, any significant results so far, the process is too slow, and incentives to big business is clearly not enough (see "Large and sluggish," page 142). Yet. A year ago, in the company of colleagues, we have tried to formulate the signs of success of innovation policy. One of the proposed criteria: there should be little less than ten innovative companies with a turnover of more than $ 100 million. All of this was seen as a fairy tale. So, in 2010 there were four such companies (see "seems to have begun," page 144).

Certainly not our forecasts form the economic growth. But our research showed that there is a chance, a good chance. And now, in addition to industrial policy on the agenda of maximizing innovation infrastructure, the consistent implementation of major projects. And more investment: a year ago in a comment on "Expert-400", we have estimated their required volume of about 30% of GDP, it is still relevant.

But the manifest is another pressing need: we need to grow in the Russian company on a global scale. Raising carefully and persistently. It requires patience and a fair effort. From the government and the business community. But without a global leader rainbow forecast is not feasible, talk about it all we surveyed, "co-authors" of "Expert-400" -2021.

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