From the fact that the Russian standard of living for the last ten years has grown, almost no one argues. In addition to data on income per capita, there are objective data, such as car sales, which are growing from year to year. And everyone can see the raised standard of living, standing in a traffic jam, which does not surprise not only the residents of Moscow, but also the province.
But in the debate increasingly there is a new argument — it’s all because of rising oil prices, and the growth of its sales. So I decided to compare — is it really so much we depend on oil prices, whether this relationship has grown over the past 10 years, and whether our economy will collapse without oil.
First, I want to advise the State Statistics Committee website developers
hammer a nail into his head upload data in a more digestible form, with the possibility of charting online to help everyone to see for yourself, without additional calculations basic things.
So, let’s take the data on the country‘s GDP, will translate into dollars (for the purity of the experiment) and plot data.
It usually follows an objection — and as the price of oil — it, too, has grown? Grew up, I agree, and to see how it grew — add a graph that shows the change in the oil price over the last 10 years:
— I apologize for the schedule, it is better not find if any of the readers would give a tip to a more intuitive — happy to replace.
It seems to be expected — there is definitely a correlation, but there are some nuances. Nuance first — in direct proportion to the price of oil GDP in 2009 was to go down to the level of 2005, which, as we can see, has not happened. And another very important point — it is the role of natural resources in GDP and exports of the country.
The value of mineral exports in GDP can be seen in the chart below:
Here we just can observe the results of the diversification of the economy. Yes, 2000go, we have not completely gotten rid of export dependence, as many would wish (and me included), but you can see a consistent decline in the share of export revenues in GDP (2008y year because of a little-known events interrupted the trend), despite on the rising cost of oil. I also want to note that the mineral raw materials — it is not only oil but also gas, and the whole periodic table, which is extracted from the Russian interior.
In general, the country’s exports by 2010 the share of mineral exports is 68.4% (for comparison, in Norway’s share of oil and gas exports account for over 50% of total merchandise exports), but if you look, then in 2000 it was 53.8%. I hope readers will compare themselves as a percentage of the increased price of oil and its share in the country’s exports.
In the same physical units, since 2005, the volume of oil exports has declined, the volume of exported oil products increased (but this is a topic for a separate post, if you dear readers seem interesting — sign for more detail).
So, what we have in the end, citizens who talk about increasing dependence on Russian oil at least err (clone army we here do not take into account). I know it’s better to be rich and healthy than poor and sick, and everybody would like, so we just stopped exporting mineral resources once and for all. But we live in, unfortunately, is not a fairy tale, and that the export of natural resources helped us to get out of debt since the Soviet Union and the "democratic prosperity" in the 90s. Also, this is the export has led to the fact that at the moment the debt situation of Russia, the countries of Western Europe (not to mention the U.S.) can only dream of.
What happens if the price of exported oil and gas (and all the elements in the periodic table) drop to zero — we will lose 20% (or to be more precise, 18.32%) GDP (thanks cap).
What is that you can compare? Well, for example,
Georgia Georgia after 2008 is just around 20% of GDP and grants received (only much happiness to them to no avail), and Latvia during the last crisis, on the contrary, lost. So far from being pissed away all polymers, and "raw materials appendage" more pobarahtatsya and forces show gruel we still have enough.
ZY in all graphs (except oil price) data for 2011 are preliminary, more accurate will be the end of the year.