Today, at night, after watching the speech Zyuganov, after the election, all of a sudden, well-thought, starting to analyze his statement on "Urgent nationalization of the commodity sector of the economy," ie, oil and gas companies.
And that’s what was thought, again just once. And how can you talk about nationalization (not by expropriation), namely the nationalization of oil and gas sector in terms of applications of the same Zyuganov, the imminent fall of oil prices. And here is my analysis.
All data on the eye, in memory of all that was deposited in my head for the last 2-3 months, "bog events." I would be glad if someone will correct then my figures (the final output will not change, but the swamp should be written with the maximum evidence base).
So, what remained in my head, we have:
1. The external state. debt of the Russian Federation — ~ $ 36 billion http://ria.ru/economy/20120305/584823990.html (then everything in dollars, unless otherwise indicated.)
2. Gold reserves — about 500 billion
3. Other funds — about 200 billion
4. Valuation of redemption of the private oil and gas sector ~ 1 trillion.
Total: we have 670 billion of available funds at a cost of $ 1 trillion of private oil and gas sector. That is, for redemption (nationalization within the market, about the expropriation Zyuganov said, hence we are talking about the full redemption) Russia must find about 330000000000.
Of course, the rule of thumb seems to be that everything is fine, we just change the support of the U.S. Federal Reserve, to own real value, ie drilling rigs, refineries, etc. much more valuable than the green toilet paper, therefore, urgently needs to nationalize!
Just bad luck that’s what will happen with the rating of the country when it becomes a creditor of the debtor? What happens when instead of 700 billion gold reserves + Funds, Russia will become a debtor and not WARNING 330 billion, and (then you can go crazy at all) as much as 530 (Minimum) billion?
Why 530 billion? And that’s why, right now the oil and gas sector, the accumulated corporate debt of $ 200 billion buying oil and gas companies and the state not only buy their assets but also liabilities, ie This is the debt, and he at the same moment will not corporate, and government! Since the company will be 100% state-owned.
Thus the Russian corporate debt will be reduced by 200 billion and will be ~ 200 billion (currently ~ 400)? and the state. debt will be as much as 530 billion.
Total debt of the Russian Federation will be 530 +200 = 730 billion
So, I repeat: we started with:
1. The funds accumulated 700 billion
2. State debt: ~ 36 billion http://ria.ru/economy/20120305/584823990.html
2.1. The duty of every citizen in the state. debt (share): $ 240
3. Corporate debt (for which the state does not care, it’s not the taxpayers’ money, is the risk that the owners of these companies) — ~ 400 billion
What came after the nationalization
1. Nakoplnnye means: 0
2. State. Debt: 530000000000.
2.1. The duty of every citizen in the state. debt (share) 3533 U.S.
3. Corporate debt: ~ 200000000000.
4. Money in the hands of former oil tycoons: ~ 1 trillion. dollars!!!
5. Responsibility for the previously dialed loans from the former oil and gas oligarchs: 0
It’s not like anyone yet another wave of enrichment of oligarchs and robbing citizens of a country that wants to spend Zyuganov?
Yes, here I immediately could object but we are instead we get the oil and gas sector.
And here I am, and I hasten to remind you another thesis Zyuganov: * oil will soon fall in price and the country will come cover *.
So, what we have is the state mired in debt (per household, your family, if not just out of 3 people, including infants and the elderly by 10 thousand greenbacks (for 3 people, repeat)), the oligarchs with trillions of cash and no debt and liabilities and the price of oil at the rate of (say) $ 30 per barrel.
Given that the budget is calculated on the price of 100 and above.
Or who do not like the situation right similar to the last years of the Soviet Union?
Let me remind you, then, at the end of the USSR collapsed. Now the Soviet Union is not, but there is a terrorist threat, national republic of Tatarstan, the same, I recall that part of the nationalized oil companies will come from Tatarstan. Do you think that will not separate from the dying Russian?
So it wants to create Zyuganov? Destroy Russia. Drive it into financial bondage, rob people, to enrich the oligarchs.
But you will object that the oil and gas industry is the money worth it, if anything, can be privatized again!
But how much will it cost neftegaz in markets with the price per barrel to 30 dollars? Exaggeration, I can say that three times less than the 100! But the market will not be so generous to the Russian state, believe me, no recapture and 200 billion from the same assets (ie, 1/5). What would recapture something will have to give Gazprom and Rosneft — FULL! Then maybe get enough money from the market 400-500 billion, but not more. That is, close the state. debt, sold everything under the net. And this is the background that the pension will not pay for half of the year, the plants will rise again, and the economy will roll down the slope at a speed of free fall.
SO WHO IS THERE FOR Zyuganov for nationalization?
I agree only to expropriate! But hold it Zyuganov does not offer. He has to destroy the country.
Thank you nagoHok for the information.