One-third of the world population in 2004 will suffer from natural disasters

26.12.2003

26.12.2003


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According to the World Meteorological Organization in the near future on Earth can be an unprecedented number of catastrophic weather events. Most of the country will suffer from the so-called Third World.

There is no bad weather …
In recent months, the world celebrated a record increase in the incidence of extreme weather events. In June, the South of France the average temperature rose above 40 degrees, which is 7.5 degrees above normal. In neighboring Switzerland in June was the warmest in the last 250 years. A similar situation is observed in other parts of the world. In the United States set a record for the number of tornadoes in May, there were 562 recorded. The previous record was 399 tornadoes in June 1992. The U.S. also observed a dramatic increase in precipitation. India, like Europe, is now suffering from an unprecedented heat wave: the temperature sometimes reaches 49 degrees, 5 degrees above the norm. Meanwhile, located next to India Sri Lanka poured unusually heavy rains that caused major flooding and landslides. Representatives of the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) say that, despite the climatic records, do not think that Earth is quickly heading to the climate apocalypse. Such extreme weather events on Earth not once occurred during the ongoing observations of weather, scientists say …

Any weather-grace …
Over the last hundred years there is a gradual increase in the number of cases of abnormal weather events such as extremely high or low temperatures, droughts and heavy rainfall. But it should be understood that this is largely due to improved significantly in recent years the quality of observations. Roughly speaking, many extreme weather events had simply not recorded. You also need to take into account another factor: at the moment has multiplied the speed of information transmission, so people will immediately recognize the disastrous natural phenomena, and they have an impression that the planet is on the verge of death. However, the number of weather disasters is increasing in parallel with global warming. According to the WMO, the mid-19th century on earth there is a gradual increase in surface temperature. In the past century, it has increased by 0.6 degrees. At the same time, climate scientists predicted, by the end of this century, global surface temperature could rise by 1.4-5.8 degrees. According to some Russian scientists, human activities contribute to global warming is only 10-15%,>

and the rest — this is a global natural trend. Therefore, the introduction of the world is completely ecological production will hardly be able to stop him. WMO forecasts that in a hundred years the world's oceans could rise by almost a meter compared to 1990. In this scenario, the Earth expects decline in agriculture, which primarily affect the third world countries, will be a sharp increase in diseases, and some areas such as the east coast of the U.S. will suffer from severe storms, while a number of European countries are waiting for permanent flood . All this leads to the fact that multiple load increase on the world economy. Now the damage from a variety of natural disasters is estimated at $ 100 billion, and in the future, this figure can only increase. WMO says that now many states are forced to spend huge amounts of money to protect against the consequences of global warming in the future. Thus, the leadership of the Maldives has already started the construction of protective structures around the island of steel and concrete in order to protect themselves from storms and raising sea levels.

Cold, warm, hot — looking for the truth
However, according to another group of experts, the flood will not, and after 5-6 years on Earth will come cooling. Their point of view they explain the fact that the forecast of climate warming on Earth in the 20th century was built on the basis of data collected from a limited area, ie talk about a certain precision of the study can not be. The current warming may be part of the natural cyclic fluctuations in temperature, such as a sharp warming after the last ice age 15,000 years ago. As for the growing number of natural disasters, it is associated with a rapidly increasing population of the Earth. In third world countries, more people due to lack of space has to settle on problem areas like the mouth of a river or flood plains, ocean and sea coasts, etc. Naturally, in the case of flood victims are inevitable. A similar situation is observed in Europe. In the Old World growing area of settlements, most of which are paved. It turns out that the water that evaporates or earlier, or went into the ground, immediately enters the river beds. This was one of the causes of flooding in Western and Eastern Europe in the past year. What can we expect next?

Dr. Matson

Source:
Ria.ua

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