Two major American researcher of the atmosphere, having carefully studied the work of their colleagues assert that they had no doubt that human activity has a significant and growing influence on the global climate. Thomas Karl, director of the National Climatic Data Center, and Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA, believe that industrial emissions have a dominant influence on climate change in the past 50 years, outweighing the action of natural forces. The most important emissions fall to the share of carbon dioxide. "There is nothing surprising in the fact that the composition of the atmosphere is changing," — the scientists say, — "and the most likely outcome of this — more frequent heat waves, droughts, sverhobilnye rainfall, and they cause forest fires, heat stress, vegetation changes, improving Sea — depending on the region. "
According to estimates of Karl and Trenberth there is a 90% chance of that for 1990-2100. average global temperature will increase by 1,7-4,9 degrees Celsius as a result of human influence on climate. If temperatures rise by 1.7 degrees, the changes are relatively small, but if a 4.9 — then the consequences can be very dramatic, even partially unpredictable.
The researchers warn that even if the international community to stabilize the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the temperature will continue to rise half a degree Celsius for several decades — Greenhouse gases are vented from the atmosphere very slowly. So climate change is almost guaranteed. If emissions continue at the current level, the world will experience the most rapid climatic changes over the past 10,000 years. It can change the direction of ocean currents and radically reshape the climate. Moreover, with accelerated warming and many natural processes.
Karl and Trenberth believe that more research is needed to better evaluate the magnitude of global and regional effects of global warming. Scientists have yet to figure out how to increase cloud cover due to temperature changes, and how these changes will be reflected on one of the main mechanisms of the formation of a planetary-scale climate variability — the El Niño.
Battery News, 09/12/2003 12:01