Our homeland could face a debt crisis, the Greek similar, if not reduce municipal costs, the economist said the capital's office of Global Bank Sergey Ulatov. However, he expects it will happen no earlier than 2030.
If thoughtless policy of increasing government spending does not change, the level of debt of the Russian Federation will become unsustainable, as in Greece, said in his own interview Ulatov Euromoney magazine at a forum on capital markets of Russia and the CIS, which was held in London. "Now the first of the Russian Federation to help oil prices, not a prudent financial policy of the government," — quoted Ulatova agency Bloomberg. But even if oil keeps at today's break-even level of 115 dollars per barrel by 2015 Our homeland will not be able to cover some of the costs, for example, compensate for the deficiency of the Pension Fund, said Ulatov.
Last week the Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin urged the government to limit annual spending growth of 4% in order to "stabilize municipal money and avoid municipal paternalism in managing the economy." But this is far not the first letter of limiting the growth of government spending. "The dog is barking — the wind is", and costs continue to rise. In general, 2030 has long — we in Russia so far no plans to …
Revenues less oil
In his own statement, Global Bank confirmed that our homeland — the largest exporter energoelementov, this year, and then, perhaps, will have a cash surplus and the surplus on the current account, thanks to the highest oil prices. "Russia does not currently faced with the problem of financial stability, because it has a small national debt, and it has cash reserves amounting to over 520 billion. bucks. Yet, the non-oil economic disadvantage, which is crucial for long-term financial stability RF, as before is great, the WB said in a statement.
— The fact that the composition of the budget revenues are allocated a separate line oil and gas revenues, which consist of export duty and tax on the extraction of minerals, — explained the "joint venture" a senior researcher at the Institute of the State University-Higher School of Economics Andrei Cherniavskyi. — They are absolutely dependent on the global price of oil, and if oil prices fall, the budget deficit will be even greater than it is now. But I think that the juxtaposition of the Russian Federation and Greece — is a kind of "horror stories". Of course, at the theoretical level as can be, but if you follow a reasonable policy, this is unlikely.
In 1-x and city debt Rf it is still very small, it is still lower than that of European countries. All the same, we need to turn away from the temptation to increase government spending, especially federal spending due to opportunistic revenue from the oil and gas sector. At the moment, the ratio of budget expenditures and GDP grows significantly: in 2007 the ratio was 18%, and in the last year has grown to 22%. But the situation on the world market at any moment could change — it has a lot of assumptions, and the government will have nothing to pay for the costs of the alleged increase in pensions and benefits.
Then will have to either cut spending or borrow on the outer market. At the moment, outside the national debt is 11% of GDP, which is fully integrated into the norms defined by the Maastricht Treaty states. But most likely, our motherland will not borrow in the international market and increase the external debt, and go the way of the smooth cuts in government spending. Costs will be reduced by eliminating accumulated over the years social obligations, which, of course, would have bad social consequences.
So, I fully agree that the government should conduct a prudent and economical policy of not increasing obligations to retirees, state employees due to the current situation, as it is very unsafe — the expert believes.
In general, by the time both the Duma and presidential elections are held, and the responsibilities of the people will be forgotten for at least three years. "The Moor has done his job …"
Pyramid of the Eurobond
And here's another horror story. The total external debt of — Municipal and corporate, in 2050 will reach 585% of GDP, if it does not conduct structural reforms, analysts said agency Standard & Poor's. In their opinion, it will grow in the 10's again and reaches a level in comparison with which the present debt of Greece or even the U.S. does not seem to be very overwhelming.
According to the International Organization Creditors (WOC), outer debt Russia in 2010 headed for 480.2 billion. bucks, and made up 32.5% of GDP. Compared with "colleagues" of the BRIC in the Russian Federation highest value outside debt and its relationship to GDP. Although, according to experts WOC, this negativity leveled at the expense of a little spare cover external debt. The fact that Russia's international reserves at its own value — the third in the world, their size is seeking 522 billion. bucks, and one hundred percent of the volume covers the external debt. Neither Brazil nor India is such an achievement can not brag.
Yes, municipal RF debt in total external debt is low. In the middle of April last year our home for the first time since the 1998 municipal defaults entered the outdoor market borrowing. The Ministry of Finance has issued Eurobonds totaling 5.5 billion. bucks for a period of 5 and 10 years. The purpose of registration was financing the budget deficit after the financial crisis. In the end, the size of the national debt of the country, taking into account the balance of the previous borrowings amounted to about 40 billion. bucks.
But corporate outer RF debt grows constantly, with all this, about 20% are accounted for municipal companies — "Gazprom", "Rosneft" and state bank VTB. The five Huge Russian debtors also includes municipal "Russian Steel Road" and the Agricultural Bank. In the ranking of large corporate debtors of, which amounted to Deutsche Bank, state-owned companies occupy eight of the fifteen positions in the midst of "Transneft", "Gazprom Neft" and EBV. The rating also are private companies Lukoil, Evraz Group, «Rusal", "VimpelCom", "Severstal" and Nord Stream.
Almost in the last decade is a redistribution of the country's external debt of the country for the municipal and personal companies and banks. According to Deputy Minister of disk imaging money Dmitry Pankin, first in 2006 outer debt of state-owned companies amounted to 68.7 billion. bucks, by October 2009 crisis he headed for 148.4 billion. dollars, and now the debt of state companies are the third part of the total external debt of the country.
According to the views of a leading researcher of the Institute of Economics of Alexander Potemkin, the growth of corporate external debt is one of the important characteristics that are bad for the country's economy. For example, in 1998-1999, the volume of external corporate debt does not exceed $ 30 billion. bucks, and it allowed the economy to recover quickly from the crisis after the default. But later he began to rapidly increase, and in 2007 exceeded the 1999 level by 13 times and headed for 400 billion. bucks.
According Potemkin, at the present time there is a situation in which a number of Russian municipalities and private companies in terms of their own zabugornyh debts exceeded the thresholds of economic security, developed by the Maastricht Treaty. Moreover, apart from debt to non-residents, the same company and have large debts to Russian banks.
In previous years, the structure of the external loans RF dominated municipal securities, currently above 70% are corporate bonds. Meanwhile, corporate debt obligations of the least reliable than municipal, because Eurobonds quotes in recent years have significant differences. According Potemkin, a special danger lies in the fact that at the present time there is a saturation construction of the pyramid of corporate Eurobonds. Now it is well above the GKO pyramid before the 1998 default, with all this, more than 50% of corporate Eurobonds account for municipal companies and banks. Another threat is the very highest concentration of corporate Eurobond issues: a huge 15 borrowers account for about 71% of the total corporate Eurobonds. A resource base for the repayment of loans after the financial crisis remarkably small.
The Government of the Russian Federation has already taken a monitoring debt of state companies. The Central Bank currently has the right to directly limit the amount of borrowing by banks, but by state-owned companies control may affect only by administrative means. And the authorities of the management of state enterprises is not so long since taken out.