Rosstat summarized interim results on main statistical parameters of Russia in the first half of 2013.
Faster all in the first half grew salary in Dagestan when compared to the same period last year — a 15.2 per cent. But this does not mean that live here most prosperous people.
The salary is relatively small, about 16, 27 thousand rubles a month. Approximately at the same level it and in Mordovia. Here, in the Volga Federal District, the leaders of Tatarstan, where the average wage close to 24.7 thousand. But if growth in Mordovia continue, and this goal is achievable.
The highest salary is still in the Chukotka region — more than 67.7 thousand.
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However, it is not just about wages. There is evidence of regional inflation, rise in food prices, the financial performance, unemployment, housing construction … And, of course, about the birth. And here — the first sensation! This year, for the first time in many years in the Far Eastern Federal District recorded the natural increase of the population — 1730 people in the first half.
In comparison, over the same period last year, the natural population decline in parts of the county was 696 people, but, for example, three years ago, the decline was more than 3,200 people. The district is growing steadily declining birth rate and death rate. That, however, is characteristic of the whole country. In addition to the Far East, population growth also occurred in the Siberian and Urals federal districts, and traditionally in the North Caucasus.
In general, the country is still locked natural population decline, but it has been steadily declining. If in the first half of 2012, the loss was 57,000 people, in the first half of this — is 52.8 thousand.
At the same time in June for the first time since the beginning of the year registered a natural increase of the population — nearly 7,000 people. As a result, over half of the population growth showed 34 regions. Earlier, commenting on the demographic situation, the head of the Labor Ministry Maxim Topilin stressed that the rise in births this year marked not only in regions with traditionally high birth rates, but also in depressed in terms of demographics.
More than 3 percent of the birth rate has increased in the republics of Tatarstan, Karachai-Cherkessia, North Ossetia-Alania, in the Khabarovsk region, Kaliningrad, Samara, Sakhalin regions, in St. Petersburg Nenets Autonomous District. Reducing the number of deaths in January to June 2013 were registered in 57 regions. Of these six regions in rate of decline in the number of deaths of more than 6 percent. This is the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Karachay-Cherkessia, Amur, Magadan region, the Jewish Autonomous Region and the Chukotka Autonomous District.
Demographers agree that all of these positive changes — the result of a competent public policies aimed at stimulating the birth rate and support for families with children. In this case, according to the research chief of department of the Center for Population Studies, Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University. MV Lomonosov Moscow State University Vladimir Archangel, the most actively responded to the measures of state rural population of the country where the birth rate is significantly higher.
It should be emphasized that the positive changes in the demographic situation continues. In July, the natural decline further reduced — to 29.7 thousand. In addition, in July registered a record monthly birth rate for the time of implementation of the population program — 181,9 thousand babies were born, which is 6.4 percent more than in July 2012.
As for inflation, the national average price rose for six months at 3.5 percent. But it is in the Southern Federal District, they grew most rapidly and gained 4.1 percent. In the leading regions — not only for the district, but also in the country — has become the Republic of Kalmykia, where the consumer price index for the six months was higher than the annual forecast of inflation: 6.6 percent. The slowest rates rose in the Urals Federal District, where they gained 3 percent in six months. The lowest inflation was in Ingushetia — just 0.9 percent, and in the Nenets Autonomous District and in the Chelyabinsk region — 1.8 and 1.9 percent, respectively.
The annual rate of inflation, likely to be near the upper limit of the forecast — about 6 percent, or slightly above, predicts Nikita Maslennikov from the Institute of Contemporary Development. Indexation of tariffs, which took place in July, has played for, he says. Wait acceleration in food prices is not worth it. Even by conservative estimates of independent experts, the grain harvest this year will be 15-16 million tons higher than in the past, like Maslennikov. So, there should not be problems with the feed for livestock and poultry.
However, the warm inflation at the end of the year can monetary factors, the traditional build-up in November-December of investment costs, as well as the overall situation in the economy, warns Maslennikov. The rise in prices is always the flip side of economic acceleration. This year, however, the locomotive did not work: the growth has been sluggish, projections repeatedly revised downwards. According to data for six months, the index of industrial production gained quite a bit — 0.1 percent. Moreover, the Central and North-Western Federal District went negative — 2.4 and 2 percent, respectively. But the situation is not hopeless. August has shown that there is, though, and a slight tendency to accelerate the pace of growth, Maslennikov said.
And, even in the semi-annual statistics, 52 out of the region on the industrial production a plus. No recession worked all regions of the Southern Federal District, and he was the leader in the country: 6.8 percent increase. However, there is a suspicion that this leap achieved mainly at the expense of the Republic of Kalmykia, where the increase in industrial production was 29.1 percent. But it is — a mystery that experts do not undertake to comment. A more modest, but more obvious successes also have.
In the central part of the country’s 6.5 percent added industry in the Kaluga region, 8.7 — in Kostroma and 8 percent — in the Tula region. In the Volga Federal District, the best performance in the Nizhny Novgorod and Ulyanovsk regions — 10.1 and 5.9 percent, respectively. The Siberian Federal District the best things in Buryatia, Novosibirsk and Tomsk regions.
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"We do not have a recession, the economy is not in crisis, — Rosstat says director of the Institute for Public Finance Reform Vladimir Klimanov. — Another thing, before an increase of 6.5 percent was the norm, now it is perceived more as an exception. "Slowing down is because the resources are exhausted growth in primary industries — energy prices have barely increased, production also explains Klimanov. At the However, despite the gloomy predictions for the industry was not sharp blow the country’s accession to the WTO, positive impact programs to support industrial clusters, the allocation of funds from the state defense order, with the benefit of a diver
sified economy, the expert continues: "A classic example of where all of these factors came together at once — Nizhny Novgorod region. "
Ulyanovsk region, apparently, is also helping the state order for the army and the aviation industry. Some regions support large-scale investment projects. Construction of Spaceport East, for sure, tightens the entire industry of the Amur region, suggests Klimanov. Industrial production in the region has grown for six months by 16.1 percent.
The position of regional budgets for the first half quite rightly reflects the general state of the economy. The consolidated budget surplus — the minimum, only 5,233 billion rubles. Without deficit from January to June, 26 regions have worked. But, in addition to the two capitals, oil regions and republics, receiving a large amount of assistance from the federal government, the list of non-deficit were the same Samara, Rostov, the Kurgan region. "The main reason for the surplus in the budget of the Samara and Kurgan regions was consistent fiscal policy, which was carried out by local authorities — says economic expert Russian School of Management Kirill Linnik. — It is a long-term (three-year) cost reduction and revenue stimulation. This has led to the fact that, for example, the Samara region has moved from the planning to the deficit in 2012 to the planning and actual production of a significant surplus. " Following six months of surplus exceeded 6 billion rubles, which is one of the highest rates in the country.
Nevertheless, the semi-annual performance is difficult to draw conclusions, warns Klimanov. "In addition to the economic condition, the data on budget execution affected by technical parameters, such as offset for the second half of the year some of the costs of investment character, part of the payments deferred to the end of the year." Because of this, in the first half of the year the regional budget can be implemented with a surplus, but then he would take. "I would not paint a rosy picture — reflects Klimanov. — Many of the leading regions are experiencing a decline in economic activity, respectively, revenues will fall, especially income tax." — "Based on the risk-management practices, can be recommended as a successful regions and individual businesses to send unexpected profit is not in development, and in the reserves, since the instability of economic growth may be replaced by a fall and reserves to help cope with the situation," — recommends Linnik.
Standard of living
The average monthly salary at the end of the first half of the national average was 28 787,6 rubles (real wages compared to the same period last year increased by 5.4 percent). Traditionally, the highest earnings recorded in the Yamal-Nenets (almost 71 thousand), Chukotka (67.7 thousand), Nenets (61.2 thousand) autonomous areas, as well as in the capital (57.2 thousand). The lowest wages — in the North Caucasus (18.4 thousand) and Volga (21.4 thousand) federal districts. However, the true financial health of inhabitants are not always directly related to the size of the salary. An important role is played here by the living wage in the region. For example, in the comparable wage regions, this relation in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District, the average salary — this is 6 times the subsistence minimum of the local population in the Nenets — only 4 in the Chukchi — 5. In the "poor" Tambov region — three and a half times the subsistence minimum, and in a comparable Tver — 3 minimum.
Another indicator of the standard of living — housing affordability. Housing prices are directly dependent on the scale of construction. Where it is built much prices are rising slowly, or not at all growing up. For example, in the Moscow region, which has long holds the lead on the scale of housing, the growth of prices per square meter in the primary market was in the first half 2013th only 0.3 per cent in the secondary — 3.7 percent. In Tatarstan, which is also a lot of building, the primary market growth of 2.5 percent, and in the secondary — even the price decline of 0.4 percent. Overall, in 10 regions of the country there was a decline in prices per square meter in the primary market and in 6 regions — in the secondary. The most significant drop in the price of a new home — 3 percent — is fixed in the Magadan Oblast and the Republic of Buryatia. [/ Cut]