Yesterday, Rosstat published economic statistics for July.
The unemployment rate fell slightly to 5.3% from 5.4% in June, though, "VTB Capital" and the market is expected to increase. More importantly, this index also decreased slightly and adjusted for seasonal factors — up to 5.5% versus 5.6%.
Real annual growth in retail sales accelerated by 0.8 percentage points to 4.3%, while turnover improved dynamics as in the food and non-food segments.
Annual investment growth in July reached an eight-month high of 2.5%, rebounding after a weak June figure (minus 3.7%).
The volume of construction has increased significantly — by 6.1% yoy, while in June it fell by 7.9%.
Annual growth in real wages accelerated to 6.6% from a revised downward the June value (5.3%).
Statistics for July, the Bank of Russia does not give unconditional bases (especially compared to the weak data for May and June) for a more aggressive easing of monetary policy, but we believe that if the 13th of September (the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on money Credit Policy) annual inflation rate to fall below 6.0% the regulator finally announce the long-awaited reduction in base interest rates.
PS The other day I said that in July there will come a tipping point, and we will enter into a new uptrend. I hope these statistics will not disappoint my expectations, and in August, my expectations are confirmed a portion of new positive news.