Photo by Vitaly Yurtaev, el-moino.livejournal.com
TSAMTO, August 29. If the intention of the published range of traditional importers of Russian weapons procurement jet UBS are implemented, the Yak-130 is already in the short term can take a leading position in the global market in this segment.
Interfere with these plans can military aggression of the West (U.S., UK, France) against Syria, which is the largest customer of the Yak-130UBS (36 pcs., The amount of the order of about 550 million dollars) in the near-term (now the Syrian Air Force pilot training is carried out in the Czech planes L-39 "Albatros").
It is noteworthy that one of the key topics at the MAKS-2013, the press service of "Rosoboronexport", is a marketing campaign to promote the Yak-130UBS. According to the Russian special exporter, "potential customers Yak-130 can become Ukraine and Kazakhstan. With Kazakh partners also considering the issue of the involvement of local businesses to service these aircraft. "
Russia is very timely in the rapidly growing global market jet UBS. The growth in global sales due to the fact that many of the "non-rich" countries prefer purchasing UBS instead of expensive multi-role fighters.
According to TSAMTO in the last 4-year period (2009-2012). Were exported or manufactured under license for at least 245 new aircraft in this category in the amount of 3.587 billion dollars.
In the coming four-year period (2013-2016 gg.) The volume of sales of the new jet will be 292 units of UBS. in the amount of 7.964 billion dollars in the case of the delivery schedules under current contracts, and the declared intentions of the tender.
In percentage terms, the growth of new supply in this segment of UBS in the years 2013-2016. compared with 2009-2012. amount to 19.18% in terms of quantity and 122% — in value.
In 2009-2012. average demand for new jet trainer aircraft in the international market was 61 units. year. In the 2013-2016 years. annual demand will rise to 73 units.
At the moment, according to TSAMTO, over the period of 2009-2016 years. with UBS Yak-130 is Russia plans sales of about 80 cars in the amount of 1.65 billion dollars is the quantitative parameter 3 in the ranking of the largest exporters in this segment of the market.
In 2009-2012. were exported 16 Yak-130UBS (Algeria) at a cost of about $ 200 million. In the 2013-2016 years. Sales may be up to 64 units. amounting to 1.45 billion dollars (it counts as a supply under contracts and stated intentions with an estimated delivery time in the reporting period). And of this amount, more than half (36 pcs.) Are in Syria.
In the ‘off’ Russia over the period 2013-2016 gg. included delivery under contracts with Syria and Belarus. In the case of the development of the situation around Syria, the worst-case scenario, a major contract with Syria on the Yak-130UBS (as well as on MiG-29M/M2) can not take place. And losses on Russia for these two contracts will be very significant. The presented calculation is made based on the fact that the contract with Syria on the Yak-130UBS be realized.
Also, take into account the intention to supply a billing period Yak-130UBS for Bangladesh (contract has not been signed), and possibly Vietnam (Hanoi has to decide on purchases in the near future, as the park Su-30MK2V in the Air Force in Vietnam in recent years has grown exponentially.) In the short term, you have an additional order to supply Belarus Yak-130UBS. In the medium term, potential customers may become Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Russia has some chances also in Uruguay.
In the longer term, the list of countries that may be interested in purchasing Yak-130UBS (in this case we are not talking about the fact that the following countries necessarily become customers of Russian aircraft, and that these countries "can work" ) TSAMTO included Algeria (second batch to replace the L-39), Brazil, Venezuela (there will be stiff competition with China), Vietnam (the second party if the first is ordered in the short term), Ghana, Jordan, Iran (in case of cancellation embargo), Yemen (in the case of the normalization of the situation in the country), Libya (in the case of the normalization of the situation in the country and the lifting of the embargo), Malaysia, Sudan, Peru, Thailand.
This list does not include a number of advanced countries where the chances of the Yak-130UBS there, but they are not included in the examination, based on the financial constraints of budgets (this is a number of countries in Africa, Latin America and the Southeast Asian region), or because of the political orientation of producers other countries. That is, in general, a group of potential customers is wider than it is higher.
As of to date from the period 2009-2016 years. China ranks first in the number of planned and delivered to the supply of jet UBS (170 cars in the amount of 1.85 billion dollars). In 2009-2012. were exported and manufactured under license from 146 planes worth 1.57 billion dollars. The order book for the period of 2013-2016 years. still makes up 24 new cars to the amount of $ 280 million. Such a significant difference on the two 4-year periods for China — a temporary phenomenon, which is associated with the transition to an active marketing policy to promote to the world market a new SS L-15.
UBS K-8 "Karakorum" is quite outdated machine, so the future prospects of retaining his position in the world market Beijing ties with its new product L-15.
During the reporting period, the supply UBS K-8 have been implemented in Bolivia, Venezuela, Egypt (licensed production), Zambia, Myanmar (as the supply of ready-made cars, and the organization of production license), Pakistan and Tanzania.
In November 2012, the company «AVIC Hund" signed with the China National Aviation Import and Export Corporation (CATIC) contract to supply 12 SS L-15 in the first export order. Officially, the first customer to be announced later this year.
Potential customers of the L-15 are considered, first of all, those countries which are the operators K-8 "Karakorum".
Preliminary negotiations for the supply of L-15 with the Air Force conducted a number of African countries, including Namibia and the DRC. The Venezuelan government also evaluated the possibility of acquisition of L-15.
Comparison of potential customers in China and Russia said that in many countries the Yak-130UBS will compete in the first place, with the L-15.
United Kingdom on the quantitative parameter for the period of 2009-2016 years. with UBS "Hawk" of the various versions in second place (157 aircraft valued at 4.284 billion dollars). In 2009-2012. were exported 73 cars worth 1.636 billion dollars). In the 2013-2016 years. predicted sales will reach 84 aircraft in the amount of 2.648 billion dollars.
The main customers of UBS "Hawk" of the various versions currently are: Australia, India, Oman, Saudi Arabia, South Africa.
A very strong competitor in the near future may become South Korea with UBS T-50 "Golden Eagle".
The first export contract with Indonesia for the supply of SS T-50 "Golden Eagle" has already been concluded (16 pcs.). These customers are expected to become the Philippines (12 pcs.) And the UAE (20 pcs.).
Traditionally a very strong competitor in this segment of the market is Ital
y, in certain regional markets, competition can make the Czech Republic.