Russian export-oriented industry in minimally felt the impact of the recent economic crisis and the confidence revs. While almost all areas of the domestic IT market (consumption of goods and services within the country) "sunk" in 2009 by 25-30%, and only this year began to go to pre-crisis lines, software exports even in the peak of the crisis increased. And in 2010, its volume has increased by 20% compared with the previous year, to the level of $ 3.3 billion, and is expected in the next few years, the pace of growth will be maintained at the same high level.
Such information and forecasts contained in the annual report "Russian export of software development industry, 2011", prepared by the Association of Russoft. One of its main conclusions — the dynamics of the development of this industry in the last decade clearly shows promise of this area of IT business, its stability regardless of the economic situation in the country and abroad.
Although at certain aspects of research methodology and received on the basis of its results, you can make certain objections, in general, this work provides a good comprehensive view of the state of affairs not only in the export component, but the entire software development industry in Russia.
The main characteristics of the dynamics of the
Russoft traditionally speaking about exporting software involves two main streams of results of work of Russian developers of this country over its borders: custom development, made in the format of service overseas customers (both IT and non-IT companies), and our software products Software venodrov. Immediately notice that the export is not included in the marketing concept of "Russian IT-market" (here consider the consumption of products and services within the country). In the first stream, in turn, stand out even two "sleeves": Russian commercial companies provided software development services, which are referred to in the report service, and similar services are in Russia Center for Foreign Companies and equivalent in this case, works of national universities and research institutes in foreign orders.
In the initial stage of our export software industry in the early years of this century, the overwhelming proportion (for fairly unanimous experts) to belong to a registered projects. And just then began intensive discussions as to which way to Russia — to develop services (Indian version) or product lines (European). It is unlikely that these conversations on their own (especially since they were not supported by regulations to support one or another variant) influenced the course of events, but now it is clear that domestic market conditions and the mentality of us closer to Europe: product lines developing rapidly (Fig. 2), and is likely already on the results of this year will take first place in the volume.
Compared to the pre-crisis year of 2008, in 2010 the export of software from Russia increased by 26% and 75% of products. The volume of commercial services within two years has also increased, but only by 10% (in 2009, there was a small decline). Of course, such a decline in service areas to some extent be explained by the fact that the Russian service companies are increasingly switching to the domestic market. But research by IDC suggests that the crisis occurred not only a sharp decline in IT services in Russia (in 2010 they reached pre-crisis levels), but also reducing the proportion of custom software development.
Note that the trend is shifting interests of Russian developers in the domestic market and is easily visible on the results of the study Russoft survey: the number of respondents whose share of exports in total turnover is more than 75% decreased from 42% in 2006 to 13% in 2010 -m, and those with such share of less than 10%, increased during the same period from 13 to 52%.
As for the development centers of foreign companies, this is the direction in Russia has developed rapidly in the middle of the last decade, which, by the way, not very favorably perceived domestic IT companies, as it has significantly increased competition in the market of programmers and was accompanied by a marked increase in wage costs. However, in recent years we have seen that the cost of foreign companies to develop software in Russia declined, not only in the shared record, but also in absolute volumes (by 8% from 2008 to 2010). But in spite of this, according to the authors of the report, the number of Russian software developers, represented in various international rankings continues to increase. Thus, in the TOP100 Global Services Russia by number of companies represented surely ranks third after the U.S. and India.
In this regard, you need to pay attention to an important point. For quite a long time in the IT market are of the opinion that, when faced with economic challenges, customers wishing to improve their costs, are beginning to make greater use of outsourcing scheme, including international. Experience shows, however, that everything is just the opposite, especially in the case of international schemes: the governments of various countries are beginning to make efforts to preserve jobs in their states.
Geographical and vertical aspects of the export business
The study found that overall optimism about the development of individual business lines with Russian software developers over the past four years has declined markedly (see table). Increased only assessment of the prospects of online sales, but this change of opinion is a reflection of the objective world trends. The main trend in the Russian domestic developers consider the growth of the domestic market, this is where they see the main prospects for their development (77% of respondents), the second place among their priorities are in the export activities (47%).
Pretty obvious trend is the decline in the importance of the market for Russian developers in North America (U.S. and Canada). The percentage of respondents that are present in this region, from 2007 to 2010, decreased from 55 to 40%, and those for whom North America is a key market — from 43 to 15%. According to the authors of the report, the interest in America in recent years lost primarily small companies. However, in 2010, and significantly reduced the proportion of large companies (with a turnover of more than U.S. $ 20 million), which is considered the U.S. market for the key itself, their share has declined from 63 to 27%. The attractiveness of the U.S. market as a priority decreases primarily for service companies. The demand for software development services in the United States almost not growing.
Interest in working in the countries of Western Europe is for all these years at the same level (as a key point for its 12% of respondents in Germany and as much again — for the rest of the European countries). In recent years, the increasing presence of Russian developers in Ukraine and other CIS countries, but the assessment of these markets as key to their own business also remains at around 10%.
Among the vertical markets of export products and services to Russian developers are still confident the first place is the IT industry (with that in 2011, 74% of respondents agreed), among other segments (banking, telecom, etc.) there is no clear leaders, then share " mentions "the respondents
ranged from 17 to 28%.
Terms of Business
According to the authors of the report on the Russian software companies account for less than 2.5% of the production in the global software market (according to our estimates — less than 1.5%). They also believe that the potential of Russia now allows you to have no less than 10 billion dollars a year. Unfortunately, the text of the report is not very clear on what basis such optimistic conclusions, but it is difficult to agree with them, if only because that achievement of these indicators will require increasing the number of developers in the country at 2-3, with the current personnel and demographics in the country is not very realistic. At the same time, it is possible to agree with the fact that the development of the export sector (and software in general) continue to hinder the unresolved issues of the legislative and regulatory environment in which business has to operate.
The survey exporters separately studied the complex issues of conditions of their activities in Russia. Assessment was given on a five point scale, where 3 means satisfactory. Only on one point in a poll of 2011 was the result obtained above 3 — protection of intellectual property (3.1), for the rest of the views are in the range of 2.2 to 2.9. Virtually all positions except one, there was a reduction estimates compared to the previous year by one or two tenths. As regards the protection of intellectual property, the number who believe that it has improved, down from 47 in 2008 to 16% in 2011
The staffing situation in the country
A large section is devoted to the study and analysis of labor market training. Of the numerous data given there, we note only that the number of professional software developers in Russia has grown significantly over the last decade. By cited a number of positive developments in the domestic IT industry:
an increase in the number of IT professionals trained in the universities of the country, including through the actions of the state, largely initiated by IT associations of the country;
increase the share of IT graduates working in the specialty (growth of prestige IT);
reducing the outflow of specialists abroad (but limiting the influx of CIS).
Despite the problems with staffing the Russian IT industry as a whole as long as the situation is satisfactory, although after the crisis (for obvious reasons) the share of software companies who do not feel the lack of specialists, according Russoft decreased from 56 to 46%. At the same time, all the experts domestic IT industry unanimously believe that the problem of personnel will increase, primarily due to unfavorable demographic situation in general.
According to experts Russoft, salaries of programmers in Russia has reached the ceiling, which is determined by the tax burden on businesses. The report says that the Russian programmer working in the company of the exporting earns an average of about 1.5 million dollars, which is 4 times less than what the developer is in the U.S.. But in the Russian higher costs for office space, on the administration, accounting and financial reporting, higher taxes. But most importantly — Russia in the global software market competes primarily not with the United States and Europe, and with India, China, Vietnam, where labor costs are less than about two times, and lower costs for the business organization.
Specialties, technologies and tools
Is undoubtedly of interest then what professions most in demand by Russian developers which features and tools, software companies use to create software. As the trend is probably necessary to select decline in demand for C programmers and a marked decline in the popularity of experts on ASP.NET.
Among the operating systems used by the leader of references Windows (96%), but more than half of the companies in one way or another and create software for Linux. Over the past few years seen declining interest in Windows Mobile. Also noteworthy is the emergence in the last two years on the list used by the OS Android. Three leaders of the DBMS all these years remains unchanged — SQL Server, Oracle, MySQL, but there is generally noticeable decline from 2008 to 2011. working with databases as such. Among the top three languages are also unchanged (Microsoft SQL, Oracle, MySQL), but then statistics show that companies in recent years, moving more towards the use of one language in their work. Of the most popular development tools is the Microsoft Visual Studio. Quite strange looks disappearance of Delphi list of used, despite the fact that the application of the language mentioned in 2011, 9% of respondents.