Almost a year ago, I gave information about changes in the commodity structure of export / import. Here are the figures fresher:
So in January 2012 against July 2008. There are no miracles, but I like the direction of movement: Reduced export of crude oil and gas is increasing imports of machinery and equipment in the fall of import cars. So this is growing imports of capital goods. Growing their own exports of machinery and equipment. Export of unprocessed timber treated with growth falls.
On the other hand increasing the export of ores, a fall in exports of ferrous metals (domestic consumption?). It seems inevitable increase in imports of medicines. Pharmaceuticals in poor condition, her recovery will take years, if not decades, and medications needed. Fall in exports can be attributed to lack of fuel in the domestic market.
I emphasize. And the export of oil and gas exports fell, while total exports rose.
What will happen if oil and gas prices will fall to $ 80 to $ 50? up to $ 30!? well, and finally to $ 0!
Balance and without good at any realistic price of oil / gas it will remain positive. Adherents Naganofa wish to choke bathert.
The statistics themselves under the cut
In January 2012 compared with July 2008, the value the volume of imports increased 7 out of 14 commodity groups considered:
- Garment — more than 2 times,
- citrus fruits — by 51%
- medicines — by 43.1%,
- furniture — by 32.2%,
- machinery, equipment and vehicles (excluding cars) — 17.1%
- goods belonging to other import — by 16.9%,
- alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages — by 5.9%.
At the same time imports declined:
- raw sugar — by 78.4%,
- fresh and frozen poultry — by 64.3%,
- steel pipes — by 38.8%,
- cars — by 37.2%,
- fresh and frozen meat (excluding poultry) — 30.9%
- ferrous metals — by 30.6%,
- fresh and frozen fish — by 2.8%.
- wheat and meslin — almost a factor of 2,
- coal — 71.8%
- refined copper — 68.3%
- iron ores and concentrates — by 53.9%,
- unwrought nickel — by 53%
- liquid fuels — by 50.8%,
- goods belonging to the Other export — by 30.3%,
- machinery, equipment and transport vehicles — by 28.8%,
- Synthetic rubber — by 23.8%,
- processed wood products — by 23.4%,
- raw aluminum — by 11.5%,
- wood pulp — by 5.6%.
- raw wood — by 45.9%,
- ferrous metals — by 36.8%,
- motor gasoline — by 33.4%,
- natural gas — by 17.7%,
- other petroleum products — by 15.3%,
- diesel fuel — by 10.6%,
- crude oil — by 1.5%
- mineral fertilizers — by 0.8%.