The birth rate in Russia from the point of view of the Orthodox-patriotic demographers

In my previous article, the question was raised about the "Orthodox-patriotic demography" and their negative impact on the demographic processes in the country. In this article I will explain my point of view the three specific examples of the speeches at the II All-Russian forum of the "Sanctity of Motherhood" on the theme "Building a family policy in modern Russia." Just say that I personally do not doubt in the Orthodox nor the patriotic people of whom I will bring it below. I just want to emphasize that their understanding of the demographic processes no relation to demography as a discipline has not.

An example of the first. Belt of the Virgin.


Belt of the Virgin as a factor that influenced the increase in the birth rate in Russia in 2012, especially energetically promoting Ms. Natalia Yakunin, the wife of the head of Russian Railways Vladimir Yakunin. According to her, in those regions in which at the end of 2011 visited this shrine, the birth rate has increased. I’m not going to ask Ms. Yakunin about:
• Why should the birth rate have to grow in those areas where the belt of the Virgin visited. Do not give birth to the States and the people, as the pilgrims were from all regions of Russia.
• why the greatest surge in the birth rate recorded in many regions, can not see the shrine, for example, in the Kaluga region, the Mari Republic, Omsk region.


I shall consider only the faithful words of Ms. Yakunina the example of my hometown of St. Petersburg. Belt of the Mother of God was in the city from 20 to 24 October 2011. Let us take a careful scientific assumption that the children of those parents, who "influenced" belt of the Virgin, are born of God in the traditional way — conception and followed through 40 weeks of birth. Consequently, the explosive growth in the number of births in St. Petersburg to be expected before the end of July 2012. What this bill authorizes statistics?

It is clearly seen that the increase in the number of live births in the Northern Capital has acquired a steady, explosive since August 2011, two months before the arrival of the shrine from Athos. Thus, either Ms. Yakunin is a proponent of the theory that children are "jump" from the mother’s womb at any stage of pregnancy, including dozachatny period, or she should seriously think about how God relates to perjurers.


The real reason for the "PR" Belt of the Virgin as a factor that influenced the birth rate in the current year, as far from the Orthodox faith, and on the demographics. The initiator — especially financial — the importation of the belt of the Virgin from Mount Athos was the foundation, the chairman of the board of trustees of which is (who would doubt it!) Himself, Mr. Yakunin. There is nothing surprising in the fact that the wife of the head of Russian Railways with such violent jealousy "PR" and the usefulness of the solutions for the country. For if there is no visible result on the investment in the project funding, it inevitably raises the question of whether the money spent.


An example of the latter. Catholicos of All Georgia.

A typical example cited at the II All-Russian forum of the "Sanctity of Motherhood" famous "demographer" Igor Beloborodov, who heads the "Institute for Demographic Research." This "institution" deliberately taken in quotation marks because I have not raised a hand to call this office, consisting of one of its founder, sereznym educational or research institution. Mr. Beloborodov, in particular, stated that "the birth rate in Georgia increased by almost 25% after His Holiness and Beatitude Catholicos-Patriarch of All Georgia Ilia II announced that he would personally baptize every third child." Indeed, the first such baptism took place January 19, 2008 in the Cathedral of the Holy Trinity in Tbilisi. Indeed, over the next two years, the number of live births has increased by almost 30% compared to 2007. Does this mean that the "Orthodox-patriotic" methods really sposobstuyut increase fertility? Look what happened to the next birth in Georgia.



Finally, the most "fun" schedule, resulting in fear of any "Orthodox-patriotic demographer."



We can not assume that the Catholicos of All Georgia roughly skimp on the obligations assumed. Consequently, short-term rise in the birth rate in Georgia "religious," and several other reasons. For if in the birth rate affects the baptism of a child by the Catholicos, why simultaneously with fertility and increases the number of "bogomerzkih" abortion?


Of course, the real reason for short-term increase in the birth rate in Georgia is obvious: it is the well-being of the population thanks to contrary to the economic transformation of Mr. Saakashvili. No relation to the request of the Catholicos of all third baptize children in the family of this process has not. Mr. Beloborodov grossly mistaken. If he intends to continue to speak publicly on demographic topics, he should more often "automatic update" their informative channels and pay attention not only to the "nice" for the news itself, but also on the "unpleasant", like the same statistics of abortion.


Example Three. The lower the abortion rate, the higher birth rate.


When it comes to abortion, "Orthodox-patriotic demographers’ like to talk about" ohuliardah unborn children. " It is assumed that a total ban on abortion (which seeks these "demographers"), will give life to all these "ohuliardam." The birth rate in this case should whirl up to the skies. But is it? No, of course. In modern developed countries, the rate of abortion is correlated with low levels of fertility. The best confirmation — Poland, in which the realization of the late 80-ies of XX century up to the total ban on abortion not only led to the explosive growth of the birth rate, but also caused the opposite effect bezabortnaya Polish birth rate for women dropped by 70-75% in comparison with the " abortifacient, "70-80 years. the last century. Why did it happen, do not you think?

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