International consulting company Bain & Co, recently prepared an interesting report — "The global diamond industry: Lifting the veil of secrecy"
(The global diamond industry: Lifting the veil of mystery), which noted that for the year 2010 in the production of natural diamonds continue to consistently lead the two companies — South African De Beers diamond production by volume — in terms of money and the Russian "ALROSA" on diamond output — in carats.
It is noteworthy that in 2010. continued to decline sales of rough diamonds through the world’s principal seller "sightholders" — Diamond Trading Company — DTC (less than 40%), a trading division of De Beers in London,
and the most extensive sales channel of rough diamonds in the world are long-term bilateral contracts, under which it sold more than 70% of rough diamonds.
Just last year, the world has produced 133 million carats of rough diamonds worth a total of $ 12.3 billion (excluding sales of unique diamonds in Russia "State Repository" as well as diamonds, sold artels and illegal miners)
and in 2011., according to Bain, production will increase slightly.
The industry is still far from pre-crisis level of annual production in the 150-160 million carats — too strongly affected the decline in production in the global crisis.
In 2008-2009, the production of rough diamonds was lowered all the mining companies of the world, except for Russia, "ALROSA" (which could not stop the production because of social obligations and work "in stock").
Company experts Bain believe that pre-crisis levels of production will only be achieved by 2017. — Through the restoration of reduced production volumes, as well as the launch of new projects, which are now leaders realize the diamond industry.
New large projects (total — 13) together give the market some 23 million carats of rough. The most important of these projects:
— GACHO Kew (Gahcho Kue) in the north of Canada, owned by De Beers, with a potential production of 6 million carats by 2020.;
— Handset them. Karpinski in the Arkhangelsk region ("Severalmaz" subsidiary "ALROSA"), the development of production which will give up to 5 mln.karatov a year;
— Bunder (Bunder) in India (company Rio Tinto) with a forecast production of 3.5 million carats per year.
The other production projects implemented by the "second tier", including those for which it will even be the first experience in diamond mining.
Among them, for example, the Russian "Tube them. Fungus "that the Russian oil company Lukoil was originally planned to sell, but now intends to develop on their own. Initial production from the new Russian "Tube mushrooms", according to Bain, can be expected in late 2012.
Implementation of the basic scenario of the report will enable the global diamond mining in 2014. reach an annual level of 160, and in 2016 — 170 million carats.
In subsequent years, production is expected to rise slightly, and in 2020 will increase to a maximum of 175 million carats.
The reason for this — the inevitable depletion of those reserves, which are now in working out, and no other major new projects (comparable in importance to the above).
Moreover, experts have concluded that even if in the coming years will be to found a new field with significant reserves, exploration and preparatory work will take a long time, and until 2020, this new project affect the overall picture is still not able to.
Bain & Company Co.otmechaet also that, at the launch of the diamond mines in operation out of 4 years (Orapa) to 13 years (mine "Lucky").
In this case, the largest diamond mine in the past year, given by 62% of the volume of production in carats, producing 82 million carats worth approximately 7.5 billion dollars.
But, in 2010. there was a sharp recovery in rough diamond prices after the crisis.
Compared with the peak reached in 2008 — 2009 years, according to the report, the price of natural diamonds increased by 65%, while the prices of polished diamonds have increased by only 23% over the same period.
The prices for rough and polished diamonds have been exposed to less severe fluctuations than the price of silver, palladium and platinum.
Bain predicts that the production of rough diamonds in 2020., Relying on new mines and small companies to reach 170-175 million carats
while the demand for rough, driven primarily by India and China,
will grow by 6.6% per year (2020g.mozhet to be around 22 billion dollars a year in money terms).
Of which the U.S. will account for 35%, while India and China are already 30%.
There is a more positive scenario, based not only on the potential production of the current leaders, but also by the emergence of new diamond-mining regions. Such, according to Bain, may become Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo-DRC (formerly Zaire), which have the potential to produce significant amounts of rough diamonds.
In the event that the political situation in both countries will be stabilized, the DRC and Zimbabwe can make a major contribution to the diamond market, increasing world production to 209 million carats in 2020.
The optimistic scenario assumes even greater growth in consumer spending and increase global GDP at rates higher than 3.9% per year.
Under this scenario, demand for rough diamonds in the world could even grow to 371 million carats in 2020.
Experts see and conservative scenario in which the difficult economic situation and the technical reasons why not give the largest manufacturers to bring their production to full capacity.
In this case the world diamond production will remain at the current level until about 2014, after which (due to the gradual working out of existing facilities) will gradually decline, reaching 127 million carats in 2020.
But, according to Bain & Co., Regardless of the scenario of the situation … the next 10 years, the global diamond market expects shortage of rough diamonds, and the difference is only in its scale.
In 2010, the diamond market is coming out of the peak of the crisis, was in the balance sheet:
supply and demand is at about 133 million carats a year.
But already in 2012, experts expect a change — in the diamond market in 2012, according to the expectations of experts, will cease to be balanced and face a shortage of raw materials in the amount of not less than 20 million carats a year,
i.e., about 16-20% of the production.
This trend will continue in the future …: The gap between supply and demand will continue to increase.
By 2020, the deficit in the market of natural rough diamonds can reach at least 72 million carats — these volumes are not comparable with 15-20%, and a half of global production of rough diamonds.
Russia is one of the major players on the world diamond market:
In the first nine months of 2011. exported about 35.76 million carats of rough raw diamonds worth U.S. $ 3.001 billion (data from the Ministry of Finance of Russia).
Compared to the same period in 2010. Export volumes of stones abroad rose by 17% and in monetary terms — by 38.9%.
In the third quarter of 2011. Russia exported 8.41 million carats of diamonds, which is 29.2% more than in the same period of 2010. (6.51 million carats).
In value terms, exports increased by nearly two times — up to 1.143 billion dollars.
The largest volume of Russian exports of diamonds consistently accounted for Belgium — in the third quarter of this country exported about 4.4 million carats of diamonds worth 757.63 million dollars, followed by Israel — 1,681,000 carats 118.37 million USD (there regularly sell rough diamonds to the amount — $ 300 million a year), and India — 1.45 million carats 175.14 million.
It is interesting
that she buys Russian natural rough diamonds abroad:
Volume of Russian import of diamonds for the first nine months of 2011. increased compared
with the same period in 2010 more than 2.7 times — up to 140 thousand 740 carats for a total of 40.721 million dollars, while the decline in value was 20.2% (compared with 51.08 mln a year earlier).
Only in the third quarter in Russia imported about 53 thousand carats of stones of 17.56 million dollars — from Belgium, Guinea and the United Arab Emirates.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Finance in January — June 2011, the mining of diamonds in Russia
increased compared with the same period of 2010 by 5.44% to 18.278 million carats.
In terms of value extracted in Russia in the first half of 2011. diamonds valued at $ 1.27 billion, up 11.2% from a year earlier.
More than 90% of rough diamonds produced in Russia "ALROSA".
By the way, since the end of November this year "ALROSA first began trading publicly sell their shares on the Russian MICEX stock exchange (as the price of one share of around 45-55 rubles. Apiece).
That’s according to company "ALROSA" consumption of the world’s production of diamonds in 2020
reach 127.8 billion dollars and will be mainly accounted for the following countries: USA — 44.5%, China — 26%, India — 20.5%, and Japan — 10%.
License to export of rough diamonds from Russia have steadily only 7 companies: JSC "ALROSA", "her daughter" — JSC "ALROSA-Nyurba", JSC "Diamonds Anabara", JSC "Severalmaz", JSC "Lower Lena" and and JSC "Uralalmaz" Federal State Unitary Enterprise Moscow and Foreign Economic Association "Almazuvelirexport."
Russia’s largest producer and exporter of finished product of diamonds (diamonds) — the software is "Crystal" of Smolensk.
Sales of diamonds on the "Crystal" from the beginning to October 2011 reached a record high in the history of the company — $ 434 million, while net income was $ 36 million. Growth in sales and net profit is estimated
respectively 79% and 96%. Interestingly, 98.3% of total sales of diamonds by "Crystal" went for export,
while Russian buyers of diamonds give the company a mere 1.7% of revenue.
By "Crystal" gets 4% of rough diamonds from De Beers and about 60% of the diamonds from the Russian "ALROSA", the rest of the stones are purchased on the secondary market, in particular, on international online auctions.