The myth of the cosmic sabotage

On the Internet there are conspiracy myth that some saboteurs somehow caused the accident domestic space technology. In a strong statement disabled by military or dual-use satellites in low — any domestic. I decided to look at the statistics of accidents, and to refute this myth with numbers. So, for the last ten years have been following the accident orbital (ie, long-suffering "Phobos-Grunt" here does not fall) starts (data source — banal Wikipedia):



February 1, Zenit-3SL, Intelsat-27 commercial communications satellite, USA.

August 6, Proton / Breeze M, Telkom-3 — Indonesia’s civil communications satellite, Express MD2 — civil communications satellite of the Russian Federation.
December 8, Proton / Breeze M, Yamal-402 — civil communications satellite of the Russian Federation.

February 1, Roar / Briz-KM, Geo-SG2 — Science / application tasks — surveying, monitoring ice conditions, the Russian Federation
August 17, Proton / Breeze-KM, Express AM4 — civilian communications satellite, Russia.
August 24, Soyuz-U, the Progress M-12M, a truck on the ISS, Russia.
December 23, Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat, Meridian number 15, a communications satellite dual purpose.

December 5, Proton / DM, three GLONASS satellite, Russia.

May 21, Soyuz-2.1a/Fregat, Meridian number 12, a communications satellite dual-RF

March 14, Proton / Breeze M, the Americas-14, U.S. civilian communications satellite.

January 30, Zenit-3SL, NSS-8, civilian communications satellite, the Netherlands
September 5, Proton / Breeze M, JCSAT-11, a civilian communications satellite, not Russia

February 28, Proton / Breeze M, Arabsat-4A, a civilian communications satellite, Saudi Arabia
July 26, the Dnieper, 18 civilians around the micro-

June 21, Molniya-M, Molniya-3K satellite communication dual-RF.
June 21, wave, CCME-1, a researcher, a joint Russian / U.S.
8 otkyabrya, rumble, CryoSat-1, Research, ESA

December 24, Cyclone-3, two satellite remote sensing, Russia, Ukraine

2003 — No accidents

October 15, Soyuz-U, Foton-M1, research, international
November 25, Proton / DM, Astra 1K, communications, Europe.

Total crashes: 20
Accidents military / civilian: 4
Accidents foreign satellites: 7
Fire alarms / mixed civilian 9


The hypothesis of a stronger form: of the twenty-related accidents only 4 satellites with military or dual-use items.

The hypothesis of a weaker form: of the twenty accidents as much as 7 are associated with the commercial foreign order.


Conclusion: The clear pattern is not observed. A poster from which to begin the post, said the true cause of accidents — must work accurately!

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