The operation of Russia’s GDP, or trap for a hamster marsh

My first article, "My answer to Chamberlain or the legends and myths of marsh hamsters’ Forum has conceived some public outcry. I have heard many words of encouragement, a little bit of constructive criticism and some disgruntled grunts "just so". To those who supported me, I want to say sincere gratitude — thank you, supporters! As for constructive criticism, it would, together with the support of like-minded people, and spodvigla me to write the second part of the article. Critics are very interested — why I took the first article of the period for analysis, which ended in 2007, a year and expanded the analysis for 2007-2011. This discretion was even malice and attempt to "rig the facts by omission." Well, I have accepted the criticism was, in fact, it was interesting — if my findings are confirmed in the entire historical retrospective or not. Here’s how.

In my first article, I showed that in the period up to year 2007, no unambiguous dependence of Russia’s GDP ONLY the price of oil does not exist. Therefore, the approval of marsh hamsters that in our country, nothing is produced, all production and destroyed our economy only exists only at the expense of energy supplies abroad are false. How did things for the period after 2007, the year? Let us again turn to the originally scheduled oil prices in historical perspective — from 1999 to 2011 (data for the chart are taken from here: http://www.inflationdata….ical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp). Like last time, under the graph of oil prices put the schedule of Russia’s GDP. So, as I discovered in Wikipedia data on the growth of real GDP in Russia for the period from 2007 to 2011, in addition, many marsh hamsters swear even on Wikipedia, saying that there are data from Rosstat, who rigged in favor of the Government of the Russian Federation, I looked on the internet the other data source and found a great site that will be very helpful to me in the following analysis: (

Graph of oil prices:

Russian GDP graph:

Watch the segment after the schedule of 2007. What can we see? Oh, the horror (!), And loss graph of oil prices between 2008 and 2009, the year the GDP graph definitely going down! It turns out that bog hamsters right? Indeed, at first glance so simple! Here is the time to remember once again one of the key ideas that are brought to my readers in my first article. Russia’s GDP is generated not only from oil prices, but also from the price of cars, planes, metal, metal products, grain, spaceships, military equipment and other products produced in our country and shipped abroad. And what happened in the period of time in addition to the fall in oil prices? Moreover, more precisely to ask another question: what was the cause of the fall in oil prices in the world? The decrease in production, reduced consumption, reduction of business activity, a total lack of liquidity, which did not allow major companies to take loans for the purchase of components, raw materials, people are not allowed to buy products from these and other businesses. Proizsholo global decline in trade and commerce. In other words, there was a global financial crisis. Therefore, this portion of the graph is to be considered as a special segment, as the analysis takes place in the changed external conditions. Here I foresee an angry roar of critics and wetland hamsters that: "Stop all the blame for the crisis! Other countries live normally in this very crisis! Only we have all been bad! "What then, I will not argue without proof, turn to the facts. And, as I always do, I’ll take the facts for accuracy from several sources:

It’s all come together. Leading economic powers! How do you schedule? Notes the general trend of the GDP of all countries in the year 2008?

Here’s a similar chart from another source:


Do not like the data from Wikipedia? Let us turn to other sources:


Here you can see a separate schedule of real GDP at any country.

Take a look:






And finally, the fiercely beloved swamp hamsters, their "fatherland", England:

And now, for clarity, the graph of oil prices:


Well, as you, dear readers, the relationship? This is what happens, the entire global economy podsazheny on oil needle? GDP of all countries depends entirely on the price of oil! Help! So what? No wrong. In fact, much simpler and more complex simultaneously. The modern world is not the same as 70 years ago. There is a tight integration of economies. And you can not consider the growth of GDP of one country in isolation from the global situation. Otherwise, the data are obtained distorted. Conclusion: Russia’s GDP in the period from 2007 to 2011 depended on the price of oil is not higher than in other periods of time. And in these very different periods of time (with the exception of the glorious era of Yeltsin’s rule), it is dependent on the price of oil is only partially true. Again, according to various sources, this part is 30% (pro-Western "economic" edition, foundations, etc.) to 10% (data of domestic economists). I hold the middle ground — 20% ;) How many is that? It’s not much and not enough — it’s as much as is. This source of income we have and it would be foolish not to use it. Of course, not everything is perfect in the country, but the cries of "raw materials appendage of the West," "devastated impoverished Russia" have no basis.

So, what we have in the bottom line? Russia‘s GDP (as well as any other developed country), is actually quite complex, comprehen
sive, integrated indicator. And it depends on many factors. Including the price of energy and the price of airplanes and cars, and the price of grain, meat, spaceships, weapons — for all that we trade with our neighbors and the multiplying economic strength of our country. The share of energy in GDP impact is such that it can drastically affect the growth or decline in GDP. Low energy prices can only affect the slope of the growth rate of GDP. Thus, we continue to live in peace, to work and to strengthen their power. A swamp is time to think again and hamsters instead of barren destructive activities, watch yourself have a place abroad. Somewhere in London. Because after March 4, their salaries, "over the hill" to pay is unlikely. There’s something for mousetrap marsh hamster and snap.


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