The Russian army will not stand idly by attack on Iran

Exercises "Caucasus-2012" will take place in view of the aggravated situation in the Persian Gulf

What will Russia do if the U.S. and Israel attack Iran? Stand aside? Apparently not. At least try to defend its frontiers and boundaries of the neighboring post-Soviet countries. As the "Nezavisimaya Gazeta", the General Staff is developing a plan large-scale exercises based on the likelihood of such an attack. Maneuvers under the name "Caucasus" will this time not of tactical and strategic. The teachings will be the main event in the Armed Forces this year.

Teachings look quite timely background on what the situation around Iran is heating up more and more. United States and the United Kingdom being moved to the Persian Gulf warships West opens front against Iran’s oil, and Western and Israeli intelligence services have resumed the hunt for the Iranian nuclear scientists, killing last week at the Center for uranium enrichment at Natanz. But the hope for a peaceful settlement of the problem still remains: the day before it was announced that the U.S. and Israel have postponed their planned major exercises and missile defense, not to escalate the situation in the region.

In connection with this strategic command-staff exercises of the Russian Armed Forces "Caucasus-2012" will be more ambitious than before. The military will come not only from the possibility of war against Iran, but also from the possibility of armed conflict in the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus.

The first such exercise was held in the summer of 2008. As it turned out, for good reason: Experts believe that it is thanks to them that Russia was prepared for war with Georgia.

At this time in the exercises "Caucasus-2012" will take part all the military organization of the country, including the Air Force, Navy, Strategic Rocket Forces, EKO and Navy. Will involve other law enforcement agencies — the Interior Ministry, the FSB, the Federal Security Service, Ministry of Emergency Situations. One of the main goals of the maneuvers will be the development of new types of network-centric military operations with the use of automated control systems, electronic equipment and space reconnaissance drones and new weapons. This was at the end of last year, the chief of the General Staff, Army General Nikolai Makarov, during a meeting with foreign military attaches.

Head of the Center for Military Forecasting, Candidate of Military Sciences, Colonel Anatoly Tsiganok told the newspaper that the preparations for the exercises began earlier than planned due to the worsening situation in the Persian Gulf. Military to work out the possible actions in case a war with Iran will be drawn post-Soviet countries of the South Caucasus.

President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov is also convinced that, despite the routine nature of the exercise, most likely, they will be adjusted to reflect the political and military situation in the Caucasus region.

As you know, the intention to hold the U.S. and Israel in 2012, the largest joint military exercises announced in November last year, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Andrew Shapiro. It has been reported that the exercise will involve more than 5,000 U.S. and Israeli troops that tactic will work on missile defense (NMD). The Israeli military said the exercises are aimed at training of interaction to repel rocket attacks on Israeli territory from Iran and other countries hostile to Israel.

Already at the beginning of this year, I assure you that scheduled for January-February maneuvers "severe challenge — 12" is not associated with an increase in tensions over Iran, but on the eve of the U.S. European Command reported that the leadership of the two countries decided to postpone the exercise at a later time. The Israeli military said bluntly that the main reason for moving maneuvers is Washington’s unwillingness to exacerbate the situation in the region, especially against the background of publications on the preparation of an attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities by the U.S. and Israel.

As the international community has decided to influence the next steps in the development of Iran‘s nuclear program through sanctions and oil embargo, Iran called on the neighboring Gulf countries do not compensate for the deficit that may arise in the case of EU sanctions on its oil exports.

Sanctions in the meantime become more refined. December 31, U.S. President Barack Obama signed a law that foreign companies that conduct payments through Iran’s central bank will not be able to work in the United States. These measures should make the major oil companies refuse to cooperate with Tehran.

The likely introduction of an oil embargo on oil imports from Iran, EU leaders will debate on 23 January. Europe buys about 20% of Iranian oil, and the cessation of purchases would be very painful blow to Tehran.

Iran’s representative to OPEC Mohammad Ali Khatibi yesterday threatened that if the neighbors will go to the cooperation with the West, and will support the embargo will increase oil production, they will be responsible for adverse effects. "If these countries will light a green light to replacing Iran’s oil, then they will be the main culprits of what could happen in the region, including the Strait of Hormuz," — said Khatibi told reporters.

Earlier, the Iranian authorities have expressed a threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is a major corridor for Middle Eastern oil. Military experts believe that if Iran will go to this measure, it can not long withstand the U.S. Navy, and it would be a fatal mistake for the country.

But the threats do not frighten Iran’s neighbors in the Persian Gulf who feel themselves under the protection of the United States. The Saudis have assured that their country is ready for the growth in demand from European importers. This statement is all the more important that the introduction of an oil embargo is only possible with the support of Riyadh, as the only country powerful enough to compensate for the inevitable deficit.

According to some reports, Iran already having problems with the sale of oil produced. The sanctions also had a real impact on the Iranian economy. As a result, the price of imported goods in the country skyrocketed, and people rushed to buy foreign currency.

But Tehran is not going to stop its nuclear program. Last week, Iranian authorities reported the beginning of the process of uranium enrichment at a new underground plant near the city of Qom, sparking sharp criticism of Russia. Nevertheless, Moscow continues to insist on the inadmissibility of new sanctions against Iran, and even more so — war.

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