The Russian market of rapeseed: record levels of production and export

For the Russian market of products of processing of rape seed was already a big part of sezona-2011/12, and therefore have a reason to take some interim results.

The presence of the favorable situation on the world market of rapeseed and rapeseed oil as a result of the active global consumption of rapeseed oil as a food and for technical purposes, contributes to further increase the interest of Russian companies to the processing of oilseeds.

On the March to the experts of IA "APK-Inform", in 2011/12 total supply rapeseed oil will be 379.88 tons, that more than last year almost 105 thousand tons and 127.3 thousand tons — an indicator of 2009/10.

The total supply rapeseed meal / cake In the current season, according to forecasts of our agency will also increase and reach 533.47 thousand tons. For comparison, the total supply of the product in 2010/11 amounted to 446.68 thousand tonnes and 444.87 tonnes in sezone-2009/10. Analysis of the market of products of processing rapeseed

At the present stage of development of the Russian market of oilseed rape is of considerable interest because egoprodukty processing can provide people with food energy (oil) and livestock — feed protein (meal / cake). Rapeseed oil is one of the most consumed vegetable oil in the world, along with sunflower and olive. According to the level of world production and consumption of rapeseed oil in third place after the palm and soy.

The main processing capacity of rape focused as a rule, in the main growing areas of the oilseed (Central, Volga and West Siberian regions).

On the March to the experts of IA "APK-Inform", in 2011/12 total supply of rapeseed oil will reach 379.88 million tons, more than last year almost 105 thousand tons and 127.3 thousand tons — an indicator of the 2009 / 10 MY.

Table 1 

The total supply of rapeseed meal / cake in the current season, according to forecasts of our agency will also increase and will reach 533.47 million tons. For comparison, the total supply of the product in 2010/11 amounted to 446.68 thousand tonnes and 444.87 tonnes in sezone-2009/10.

It should be noted that sufficiently strong demand for refined products rapeseed properly affects the pricing policy. In this case significant influence on the price of oil has a value of raw materials for processing, as well as the cost of production. At the same time, the activity is important consumer demand for rapeseed oil in certain periods of time. It is also worth noting that an important factor in the formation of prices in geographically close to the ports of the regions is the price situation on the foreign market.

The formation of the selling prices of rapeseed meal and cake, in addition to internal factors (cost of production, the number of proposals and the volume offered for sale, as well as protein content), is also affected by a number of factors. These include the procurement activity of buyers, as well as the price situation in the related market (the market of sunflower meal, cake).

Prices for rapeseed oil

Offers a new crop of rapeseed oil in Southern Region began to arrive in late July — early August. Many manufacturers have voiced declarative prices often at 36000 RUR / t EXW. It is worth noting that the demand of the buyers at these prices remained fairly low due to expectations of further price reduction. Throughout August as the number of proposals on the oil market witnessed a decline in sales prices. By the end of the month product manufacturers voiced the offer price is usually in the range of 34500-35000 RUR / t EXW, depending on the conditions and forms of payment. It should be noted that the demand was moderate. The current price situation remained on the market for September and October.

Starting in November, due to a substantial reduction of the proposals bulk of rapeseed oil producers, who have the technical capabilities to do so, focused more on processing sunflower seeds.

In Central region the end of July, some manufacturers unrefined rapeseed oil began to sound declarative offer price for the product of the new crop is most often at the level of 37,000 rubles / t EXW. Oil shipped parties usually do not exceed the machine standards. It should be noted that the trading activities at these prices practically implemented. In the second half of August, as the number of proposals asking prices were quoted more often than not below 35500-36000 RUR / t, excluding shipping costs. The observed low, but stable pace of sales of oil.

During September — the first half of October the bulk of producers carry out the implementation of the product at prices that are generally in the range of 36000-37000 RUR / t EXW, depending on the conditions and forms of payment. Active trading activities remained low due to the seasonal surplus of oil on the market offers. In the current situation in the second half of October, many mills that needed urgent implementation of the product, the offer price was lowered and voiced their often at 35,000 rubles / t on an ex-warehouse retailer.

During November and December of rapeseed oil market continued to be characterized by a downward price trend, which, as before, was due to the relatively high number of product offerings. The main part of the voice of producers’ prices are often in the range of 34500-37000 RUR / t EXW, depending on the conditions and forms of payment. Demand was quite low for such and their relatives prices.

At the same time, some maslodobyvayuschie plants with stable markets, reported a fairly high rate of sales of oil more often and minimum prices close to them.

In January the activity of trading activities remained the same. This situation, according to experts of manufacturing companies, was caused mainly by a decline in demand of export-oriented companies, aided by "ice" conditions in the ports. Another reason is the higher interest of buyers in purchasing sunflower oil at more affordable prices. By the end of February, the market saw an increase of rapeseed oil supply prices. This situation was due, above all, an increase in activity of the demand of export-oriented companies on the product.

In early March, many steel mills voice selling prices most often in the range of 36500-37500 RUR / t EXW, depending on the conditions and forms of payment. At the same time remained fairly steady pace of sales of the product. It is worth noting that by the end of March, the selling prices for oil continued to be adjusted upward. During this period, many mills are often voiced the offer price in the range of 38000-38500 RUR / t EXW, depending on the conditions and forms of payment. At the same time, some oil producers carry out the sale at prices generally between 39,000 rubles / t excluding the shipping costs.

In Volga region Oil supply new crop began to come closer to the middle of August. The new season for the market of rapeseed oil was characterized by high activity of trading activity on the background of an extremely small amount of product offerings of the old crop. Many product manufacturers’ prices often articulated at the level of 37,000 rubles / t EXW.

In September, the bulk of producers in the voice of the offer price range 36000-37500 RUR / t EXW. The rate of product sales at such prices were characterized as stable. At the same time, some sellers rapeseed oil articulated declarative offer price is not lower than 39 000 rubles / t excluding the shipping costs. Demand for such prices were low.

By mid-October, the majority of producers’ prices mainly arti
culated within 37500-39000 RUR / t EXW, depending on the conditions and forms of payment. In turn, buyers were willing to buy rapeseed oil prices, as a rule, no more than 37000-38000 RUR / t CPT.

During November and December in the market of rapeseed oil was observed low activity of trading activity due to a fairly large number of product offerings. In view of this situation the bulk maslodobyvayuschih plants in order to attract more buyers lower selling prices, leaving them with a previously steady range. It is also worth noting that during this period many producers of rapeseed oil shipments carried out under previously signed contracts to export.

During January and February of significant changes in the price relation was observed. At the same time, market participants noted the relatively stable pace of product.

According to market operators, since March, due to the rather strong demand for rapeseed oil, many manufacturers raised the prices of their proposals and voiced most often in the range of 38000-38500 RUR / t EXW, depending on the conditions and forms of payment. Settled situation prevailed in the market before the end of the month.

End sezona-2010/11 MG for rapeseed oil West Siberian region marked decline in sales prices. This situation was due to the release of storage space for the acceptance of a new crop of rapeseed oil. Proposals for the purchase of a new crop of rapeseed oil began to arrive in late September. Many mills in this period have reported fairly strong demand on prices in most cases at 30,000 rubles / t excluding the shipping costs. The steady price situation was typical market of rapeseed oil by the end of October.

Since the end of October, most of the manufacturers in view of the slowdown in product sales prices and reduced their voiced most often in the range 29000-31000 RUR / t, excluding shipping costs. This fact, by and large, been caused quite a lot of suggestions on the oil market.

According to market operators, during November and December sales fairly stable rate of rapeseed oil prices persisted in most cases at 29,000 rubles / t EXW. In rare cases, the sellers who needed urgent implementation of the product, voiced selling prices are usually at the level of 28,000 rubles / t EXW.

During January and February trading activity carried out at prices mostly in the range of 29000-29500 RUR / t EXW, depending on the conditions and forms of payment. The current price situation was typical of the market by the end of March.

The market prices of rapeseed cake in

In early August, according to market participants, many manufacturers Southern Region began to articulate the offer price of the new crop of rapeseed oil cake predominantly in the range of 4900-5800 RUR / t, excluding shipping costs.

Throughout September and October, many sellers of the product mentioned relatively stable pace of sales at prices that are generally no more than 5,500 rubles / t on an ex-warehouse retailer.

Starting in November, experts manufacturers Increases in trading activity in the market. This situation is mainly was due to seasonal factors. Thus, during this period there was a fairly strong demand of buyers, in particular feed businesses.

It should be noted that since the end of November due to scanty number of proposals rapeseed bulk of rapeseed oil cake preferred to work with sunflower seeds.

In Central region the first offers a new crop of rapeseed oil cake began to come closer to the middle of August. According to market operators, selling prices were quoted most often at the level of 6000 RUR / t EXW. In this case, there was a high demand at that price.

During September and October because of a sufficient number of proposals on the market the main meal of the sellers reported a moderate but steady pace of sales at prices often in the range of 4900-6000 RUR / t EXW, depending on the quality parameters of the product, the conditions and forms of payment.

It is worth noting that in the first half of November, according to market operators, some manufacturers reported an increase in demand for high-protein meal from consumers, mostly feed companies and livestock farms. During this period, trading activity was carried out at prices most often in the range of 5200-6200 RUR / t, excluding the cost of shipping raw materials to the plant. However, many vendors have noted that the product is high in protein (36-38%) was realized at maximum prices.

During January and February the market rapeseed cake remained fairly steady pace of sales at prices above the specified range. In view of this situation, since March, most of the manufacturers increased the minimum and near-cost prices. Before the end of the month, according to market participants, trading activities were carried out at prices that are generally in the range of 5500-6500 RUR / t EXW, depending on the conditions and forms of payment. It should be noted that there was strong demand for both low-and high-protein product.

In late July, Volga region most manufacturers sounded prices in the new crop of rapeseed cake more often than not below 7000 RUR / t EXW. The demand was estimated to be sufficiently low, since the majority of buyers are not in a hurry to conclude the contract for the supply of the product, expecting to further strengthen the bid prices.

By the end of August, as the number of proposals cake observed relatively stable pace of sales at prices most often in the range of 5500-6000 RUR / t EXW, depending on the quality parameters of the product, the conditions and forms of payment.

Throughout September and October, according to market participants, the significant changes in the activity of trading activity was not observed. Product manufacturers in the majority voiced the offer price, usually within 5000-6000 RUR / t EXW, depending on the conditions and forms of payment.

During November and February, many manufacturers have voiced rates of supply / demand in the previously formed range.

Beginning in March, as a result of reducing the number of product offerings saw an increase in prices, while selling prices remained in the previously formed range. In turn, many buyers have noted that high protein product went on sale at a price not less than 6000 rubles / ton EXW. This situation persisted until the end of March.

Starting in the second decade of September, West Siberian region many manufacturers have started reporting prices in the cake the new crop predominantly in the range of 7500-9500 RUR / t, excluding shipping costs. Also in this period, the sale of the product has received offers of the old crop, the volume of which companies offered an average of at prices not higher than 7000 RUR / t EXW. By the end of December, as the number of proposals cake vendors in the majority reported high demand at prices not higher than 7500 rubles / t excluding the shipping costs.

Since October, the relatively moderate demand was mainly on prices in the range of 7000-7500 RUR / t, excluding shipping costs. However, some manufacturers have reduced the maximum offer price to attract more buyers.

During November and February, according to experts manufacturers were observed relatively stable rates of sales at prices mainly at the level of 7000 rubles / t on an ex-warehouse retailer.

Since March, market participants began to report increased activity of the demand for oil cake, which was due mainly to the seasonal decrease in the number of product offerings. The producers for the most part did not want to raise selling prices, voicing them, as before, at the level of 7000 RUR / t EXW.

Exports and imports

High enough canola crop in Russia in the current season is the result of a significant increase in the total supply of rapeseed oil and, as a consequence, its exports. Thus, a
ccording to the March forecast of IA "APK-Inform", the export of oil in sezone-2011/12 increased almost twice as much as last year and will reach 175 thousand tons. In 2010/11 exports of the product was 89.4 million tons and 95.49 million tons — in 2009/10.

Still major customers are rapeseed oil Italy (31%) and Latvia (22%) and Lithuania (14%).

 

While the export of rapeseed oil outflow from the country increases its RF import also present and even has an upward trend. So, according to our agency in the current season imports of oil will be 1 million tonnes against 946 tonnes in 2010/11 and 552 tonnes in 2009/10.

According to the March forecast of IA "APK-Inform", imports of rapeseed oil for August and February amounted to 700 tons. The main supplier countries are Germany, Finland and Lithuania.

According to the forecasts of IA "APK-Inform" in March, in sezone-2011/12 in Russia will increase exports of rapeseed meal / cake and will be 220 thousand tons, 72.1 million tons more than last year and 112.5 thousand tons — from 2009/10. Thus, the export of meal / cake in 2010/11 amounted to 147.9 thousand tons and 107.5 thousand tons — in 2009/10.

The main importing countries are Spain (23%), Denmark (17%) and Latvia (13%).

At the same time, according to IA "APK-Inform", imports of rapeseed meal and cake in the Russian Federation in the current MY missing. For comparison, in 2010/11 imports of the product was 110 tons and is almost absent in 2009/10. This situation is primarily caused by a sufficient number of common meal and cake supply the required quality in the domestic market, which has made this season 533.47 thousand tons.

Findings

Over the last three seasons in Russia tracked a clear trend towards increasing the volume of production of rapeseed processing (oil, meal / cake), which is a result primarily of increased internal consumption of rapeseed processing, in particular from the feed companies, as well as livestock and poultry farms.

Given the favorable pricing of the market of products of processing rapeseed both domestically and in the foreign market, it can be assumed that in the near future we can expect further increases in consumption and, consequently, the volume of production of rapeseed oil meal / rapeseed meal.

Svetlana Gnoevets,

Expert of Russian market of oilseeds

IA "APK-Inform" 

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