May 28, 2013. Three days later, officially kicks off the season of tropical storms in the Atlantic. With a probability of 70% this year it will be active or very active, experts say NOAA.
During the season, from June 1 to November 30, there will be 13 to 20 storms, which will be assigned names. Of these, from 7 to 11 stages reach hurricane, including from 3 to 5 will be intense vortices hurricanes (winds 178 km / h or more). For comparison, the regular season is born 12 storms, including six hurricanes, including three intense.
Among the major oceanic and atmospheric factors on which the seasonal forecast, the NOAA experts allocate:
- special model of atmospheric circulation called energetic West African monsoon, responsible for a series of high hurricane activity in the Atlantic, ongoing since 1995;
- higher-than-normal water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea;
- the absence of El Niño, which could inhibit tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic.
However, the American meteorologists are reminded that the seasonal forecast does not include the number of hurricanes that may enter the land and the place where it happens.