Back in 2011, Ukraine controlled two-thirds of the transit of Russian gas, but the beginning of 2013 through its territory is already less than half the volume. Ukraine will continue to lose control over the export of gas by Gazprom and receive less of 300-400 million dollars a year, experts say
Ukraine, once controlled two-thirds of the transit of Russian gas to the countries of the former USSR, now provides less than half of the bleeding, according to the calculations of the Agency Gas Information (AGI) based on Russian and European managers.
If the I quarter of 2011, Ukraine provided 63%, in I quarter 2012 — 56%, and in the IV quarter — 55% of Russian gas. In 2012, gained momentum just launched "Nord Stream". Gazprom has acquired the 100-percent shareholder "Beltransgaz". Therefore, the whole year was carried out stage by stage work on the conversion of transit flows with Ukrainian corridor in the "Nord Stream" and the Yamal-Europe.
Since the beginning of 2013, Gazprom Ukrainian colleagues presented a new "gift" — on January 1, the use of Ukrainian pipes decreased by 18% (compared to the last decade of the previous year). Gazprom has reduced by 26% by pumping Uzhgorod corridor, increasing the loading of "Nord Stream" — having increased transport along the eastern allotment of OPAL and steady supplies of the western allotment of NEL.
As a result, the total share of Ukrainian transit of the Russian gas export up to the first decade of January 2013 stood at 42%.
"Reducing the share of Ukraine as a transit country for Russian gas due to the launch of the two branches of the" Nord Stream ", as well as buying Gazprom Beltransgaz, which helped to keep and increase the supply of gas through Belarus without fear of unauthorized taking of gas," — says the newspaper VIEW director of the analytical department of the IR " Region "Valery Weisberg.
"The second reason — the gradual reduction in European demand for Russian gas. For example, last year, demand in Europe for Russian gas fell by about 6%, "- adds a leading expert of the Ukrainian Razumkov Center Volodymyr Omelchenko.
"If the policy of Gazprom in Europe will remain the same tough, no long-term contracts would be revised if the price of Gazprom’s gas will remain above Norway, Qatar, Venezuela prices and the cost of gas from other sources, the share of Russian gas to the European market will continue to decline," — predicts Omelchenko.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is not yet recognizes that its importance as a transit country for Russian gas is reduced. On the eve of the Minister of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine Eduard Stavitskiy said that the volume of transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory in the current year is not expected to lower than in 2012.
He explains this by the fact that the routes on the transit of gas generated Russia to bypass Ukraine is not yet in operation. At the same time, the minister did not specify the transit volumes for 2012, noting that the final data will be January 25.
However, the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory since the beginning of 2012 to the end of October this year amounted to 64.8 billion cubic meters, which is 25% less compared to 2011 (official data of the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine). In 2011 the volume of transit for the same period amounted to 81 billion cubic meters. According to preliminary data of the Razumkov Center, just through Ukraine in 2012 received about 80 billion cubic meters of Russian gas. For comparison, in 2011 the transit of gas through Ukraine to Europe amounted to slightly more than 101 billion cubic meters.
Experts are in agreement that the share of Russian gas transit through Ukraine to continue to decline. "This is a natural process in connection with the construction of gas pipelines bypassing Russia and lower demand in Europe for Russian gas," — said Omelchenko. "It laid the first branch of the" South Stream ", so after a year or two, the share of gas transit through Ukraine to cut even more," — expects Weisberg.
"For Ukraine, this means only one thing — a tripartite consortium plans to modernize the Ukrainian gas transport system with the participation of Gazprom, Naftogaz and the European Commission is likely to have not realized. Europe, having received "North" and "South Stream" will satisfy their needs for Russian gas. Then it will be rather interesting to work with the Central Asian countries: the Europeans will look for ways to deliver gas from Turkmenistan to develop the pipeline "Nabucco" or "Trans-Caspian" — says Valery Weisberg.
"Ukraine will be the only way to attract a foreign partner for the modernization of its gas transportation system — is to turn to Gazprom. But Russia in exchange will obviously seek access to the domestic market of Ukraine ", — the expert adds.
"Perhaps, Ukraine will require increased transit fees Gazprom. But Gazprom, which has alternative ways of pumping gas, and on this would be an adequate response, "- says Weisberg.
"Finally, Ukraine lost its transit importance, at the same time and lose its position in the negotiations with Russia on gas prices" — sums up the expert.
The loss of Ukraine redirect routes of Russian gas supplies Volodymyr Omelchenko of the Razumkov Center is estimated at "several hundred million dollars" in 2012. "This year, Kiev, is also likely to lose about 300-400 million dollars.
But this sum is not particularly critical for Ukraine. Total revenue for the transit of Russian gas through its territory is about $ 3 billion. That is, the loss of Kiev are only 10-15%, "- said Omelchenko.
However, Ukraine meanwhile is not sitting idly by, and is trying to reduce its dependence on Russian gas and get out of other countries. "We can not exclude that in the distant future, Ukraine modeled on the Baltic will negotiate with Europe about how to connect it through Slovakia and Hungary to the" South Stream "and the receipt in fact Russian gas, but with the European territory. At least, with Germany in the past year, Ukraine such operations carried out in small volumes, and this gas is turned cheaper than the Russian. Also, at one time did the Baltic countries that have achieved detachment from the Russian and accession to the European gas system: they have to work according to the rules of the European market and from this in the long run can win, "- says Valery Weisberg.