Uranium arithmetic. Who Rosatom will divide the world’s energy future

April 25, 2013 Ivan Lisan

Obviously, the energy future of humanity will not "green", what is still trying to convince the world of the many lobbyists "environmental projects", bred in the beginning of zero. It is unlikely in the foreseeable future, mankind will be able to eliminate the use of fossil fuels. Energy future of the world is not for the wind turbines and solar panels, and for nuclear reactors. In recent decades, the costs associated with the acquisition of nuclear technology, greatly reduced and the needs for low-cost electricity in developing countries have grown many times.

Now a nuclear program in the state from 35 to 40 countries, and some — Iran and North Korea — accelerated master peace and not very peaceful atom. India and China feel a huge lack of electricity. By 2022, Delhi is planning to increase the peaceful nuclear capacity in ten, and by the middle of the XXI century — 100 times. By 2020, Beijing plans to increase the capacity of its nuclear power plants and 40 GW (compared to 6.5 GW in 2005), amounting to 4% of the total domestic supply.

In the meantime, these facilities are not yet built, Beijing forced deeper and deeper bite into their bosom, hollow out more than 3.7 billion tons of coal in 2012, planning to increase production in 2015 to the level of 3.9 billion tons, with further prospects of entering the the level of 5 billion annually. 

The situation in India is even sadder: at night, looking at the Indian subcontinent from the ISS, astronauts see the lonely lights of India’s major cities: everything else is covered with darkness of the night. India is experiencing great difficulties due to the lack of electricity, which is only possible to overcome the development of nuclear power.

In total, 2030 of the world can be built 350 nuclear power units — excluding ships with nuclear power plants.

The order book of Rosatom: Done to all nuclear power plants built in time

And now more about the tremendous nuclear field to master the Russian Rosatom, that is — on orders for the construction of nuclear power plants. And then very useful to read interview Deputy Director General of the State Corporation "Rosatom" on development and international business Kirill Komarov "Rossiyskaya Gazeta": "At the end of the year there were, as I said, 21 unit abroad and nine being built in the country. Only thirty units. This is a unique situation. Nobody in the world does not build much. Even China, which is now over They give the example of the most dynamically developing country. They, unlike Russia, not one, but two state nuclear company. Moreover, "Rosatom" builds in China. So, two Chinese companies to build 25 reactors, and we — thirty. In this sense, we are the champions. And we go around the competition, which are in the same league — I mean, the French and the Americans. Only they now offer us on a par with nuclear reactors, which can be attributed to the generation of conditionally "three plus" " .

The aggregate amount of contracts of "Rosatom" is $ 69.3 billion (+18.4 billion $ to the level of 2011). It is planned to even out the corporation for the Latin American market.

The ambitions of "Rosatom" are: Corporation plans in the next 16 years to increase its revenues by five times — up to $ 75 billion. Already, the company controls 25% of the global nuclear market. Potentially, the "Rosatom", along with the Russian defense industry, is a powerhouse of industrial development, which pulls the composition of re-industrialization of Russia and the vehicle, simultaneously downloading orders factories to customer country. And while 97% of all the equipment and services provided by "Rosatom", and are made at the expense of domestic contractors.

Uranium arithmetic

And now is to tell how raw material will be provided by the work of all nuclear power in the foreseeable future.

The absolute world leader in the reserves of uranium ore is Australia, whose reserves are estimated at 1.673 million tonnes, or 31% of the world. It is followed by Kazakhstan — 651,800 tons or 12%. In third place Canada with its 485,300 tons — 9%. After Canada — the Russian Federation, with 480,000 tons, equivalent to 8.9% of the world’s uranium rud.Zatem descending line up: South Africa (5.5%), Namibia (5.3%), Brazil (5.2%), Niger (5.0%) , USA (3.8%), China (3.2%) and India (1.5%). And as a nice bonus at the end of the list are of Uzbekistan with 114,000 tons — 2.1% and Ukraine with 105,000 tons, or 1.9%.

Characteristically, but in the EU and UK stocks of uranium ores are practically no: it was previously used for industrial needs, inventories and no more are expected.

Now start an interesting arithmetic.

Conditional "west" — the U.S., Australia, Canada, and those whose reserves are estimated at the level of statistical error, — have a cumulative 43.8% of uranium ore, uranium stocks through Australia. The Eurasian Union will have a guaranteed 20.9% of world reserves, and subject to the successful integration of Ukraine and Uzbekistan — 24.9%. Probable reserves BRICS, subject to the replacement of Russia’s membership in the Eurasian Union (with Ukraine and Uzbekistan) — 40.3%

Thus, the BRICS countries will have the second largest reserves of uranium ore, and EAC — third. And this is without the control of deposits in other countries.

And while "Rostatom" ranked second in the world in a controlled uranium reserves buying recently 100% of the Canadian Uranium One Inc.

All of the above gives every reason to believe that without nuclear fuel EAC in the next decade remains. And if we add to the reserves of uranium ore and thorium have that in the future will also be fuel for nuclear reactors, the fuel domestic nuclear power plants and nuclear power plants with them and built "Rosatom", will be provided for many decades. By the way, thorium reserves stored in warehouses in Russia is estimated at 6,000 tons, and monazite concentrate from which the radioactive isotope 232Th, accumulated in the dumps about 83,000 tons. It remains only to exhaust the reserves of uranium ore, then the use of thorium in nuclear power will be virtually no alternative. In fact, until the commencement of commercial use of fusion is at least half a century, and uranium still limited.

The bottom line:

The Russian nuclear industry is a world leader in the field of peaceful nuclear energy saved thanks to the staff, a huge stepping stone from the Soviet Union, as well as dynamically developing new nuclear technologies.

"Rosatom", along with the defense industry, is the driving force of industrial development of Russia.

Already, "Rosatom" ranked second in the world in controlled reserves of uranium ores. Control of the deposits of uranium ore has become analogous to the current geopolitics of oil. So, one of the objectives of the operation in France, Mali — control of resources,
including uranium, for nuclear power plants in France are working on the African uranium.

"Rosatom" is a world leader in the number of signed contracts for the construction of nuclear reactors. The order book is estimated $ 69.3 billion, while corporations build 30 nuclear reactors across the whole world.


In alliance with the leaders of "Rosatom" strengthen the country’s position in the global high-tech market


We had time to get used to the fact that in the last ten days of April talking about peaceful nuclear energy with an eye on Chernobyl. Keeping in mind that the safety of the construction and operation of nuclear power plants — an absolute priority. Last year’s events at nuclear power plants in Japan with new force drew this imperative, said the deputy general director of the State Corporation "Rosatom" on development and international business Kirill Komarov.

Russian newspaper. It is believed that after the accident at the nuclear power plant "Fukushima-Daiichi" demand for the construction of nuclear power plants around the world fell sharply. Do you agree with this assessment?

Kirill Komarov: In fact it is not. Now, as has already been a year after the accident, it is possible to objectively understand what is really going on, and take, if you will, some of the intermediate results. What our analysis? Refused or simply do not want to develop nuclear energy, only those countries that in the past, before the events in "Fukushima" is not going to build a nuclear power plant and / or did not have a major nuclear energy development program. The most famous example — Germany. Yes, they were and are operating nuclear power units. However, over the last thirty years in Germany there was a new nuclear power plant construction program.

Or take Italy — where, as you know, a referendum for the abandonment of nuclear power plants. So in this country has never had any operating nuclear plant. Plans for their construction in the years nurtured, but not very specific. Now, referring to the referendum in Rome officially declared that he does not want to do it.

— Thus, you want to say that the choice of Italy and Germany — is not a trend and not a rule, but rather the exception of those?

Kirill Komarov: I say only what I say to those countries that have taken at serious nuclear energy development program, would have a certain share of nuclear power generation in the country’s energy — they all reaffirmed their commitment to a single course of development of nuclear power. What is this country? China, India and other countries of Southeast Asia, including Vietnam. The Middle East is Bangladesh, Turkey — very dynamic nation. And almost all the countries of Central and Eastern Europe: Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria. South Africa — the African continent, Argentina and Brazil — South America.

In this series, not only developing countries, but also the states with developed economies, including the UK, France, USA. In the United States, which is very significant, it is now a national regulator has issued the first (after a very long pause) the authorization for the construction of the country’s new nuclear power stations. I draw your attention to the fact that the Japanese government last week decided to resume the work of the two previously idled reactors at the plant, "Ooi." Of course, the future of Japan’s nuclear power industry is very dependent on public opinion in the country, but the position of the need for flexibility and continued operation of nuclear power facilities Japanese authorities show.

As for Russia and the "Rosatom" so we never for a moment did not stop the national program of building nuclear power plants in the country and were not rejected plans for a similar construction abroad. The demand for our projects and the global demand for nuclear energy as a whole have not gone away and keep a positive trend.

Imperative Security

— Is "Fukushima" had no impact on the order book of "Rosatom"?

Kirill Komarov: Affected. But I would say — influenced in some positive way. This may be, for some unexpected effect — the result of long work that "Rosatom" spent over the past years. Because now, in postfukusimskih conditions demand not just nuclear power, and energy safety, the customer wants to see the reference design that has already been implemented in other countries. In this sense, Russia provides comprehensive warranties because we do not just offer stations around the world, we are actively building their own country, which is the best proof of what we believe in the safety of our technology.

— Reactor systems, we now offer foreign clients belong to the generation of "three plus"?

Kirill Komarov: Yes, that’s exactly what we offer to the world market. Customers have a solid, it is important for them to have a full set of safety systems that would protect the station even in the worst-case confluence of the most difficult and horrific situations — such as an earthquake, a tsunami with the highest wave total power outage. The customer now wants to get a station that even in these extreme conditions, even if they are all together at one point, do not get out of control.

This means that in normal mode will shut down the reactor, there will be no release of radiation, there is not any threat to the safety of life and health of people who live in this region. Russia is able to build such plants at home and offer the world. Is not this is the fact that over the past year, we have almost doubled our portfolio of foreign orders: 2011 began the first of twelve contracts for the construction of nuclear power plants abroad, and ended it with 21 contract. Plus, remember, have carried out a nuclear power plant start-up "Busher" in Iran.

— And I myself have launched the fourth unit at Kalinin NPP. How many of these orders have "Rosatom" — already deployed and in preparation for the construction?

Kirill Komarov: At the end of the year there were, as I said, 21 unit abroad and nine being built in the country. Only thirty units. This is a unique situation. Nobody in the world does not build much. Even China, which is now taken as an example to all as the most dynamically developing country. They, in contrast to Russia, not one, but two state nuclear company. Thus "Rosatom" builds in China. So, two Chinese companies are building 25 reactors, and we — thirty. In this sense, we are the champions. And we go around the competition, which are in the same league — I mean, the French and the Americans. But they are now offering on par with us nuclear reactors, which can be attributed to the generation of conditionally "three plus".

With long-term view

— How do you see the development of the global nuclear power market over the next 10-15 years? And what part can claim "Rosatom"?

Kirill Komarov: We believe that by 2030 the world could be built 350 nuclear reactors — it is absolutely real. About the same prediction, but a six percent increase was down to the "Fukushima". Shortly after the incident in Japan, totals slightly reduced, but the order remained the same. What is particularly gratifying — it’s not only our, Russian, point of view. Its share in the IAEA and the World Association of Nuclear Operators and the World Nuclear Association.

And as for our "share" as you put it, the answer is that today in the world m
arket of nuclear power plants in Russia about 25 percent. We believe that we have a good chance to save it in the same volume. The current package of overseas orders is estimated at $ 50 billion. This is serious money we give from abroad in the Russian economy, seeking to maximize the share of supplies and services of Russian companies in the implementation of our overseas projects.

As for the internal construction of nuclear power plants, the 97 percent of all equipment and services — it is our custom in-Russian machine builders, the construction industry and other contractors. And jobs, taxes, development of social infrastructure in the cities of a station. When people talk about sectors of the economy, the locomotives, the nuclear industry should be called in the forefront. Moreover, it is extremely high-tech and high-tech sectors.

— High hopes at one time associated with large-scale construction of Russian design nuclear power plants in India, for this case was defined multiple sites in different locations. And what now? Are you able to resolve the difficulties that have arisen in the final stages of building nuclear power plants in Tamil Nadu?

Kirill Komarov: In India, we had to take a break due to the fact that local people have questions about the nuclear plant "Kudamkulam" which is based on the Russian project and with our participation. But the government, state government and local communities with the assistance of independent experts could make sure that the station is not only safe, but in a sense — exemplary. It is an example of the most secure of all the nuclear power plants that are in the world today.

Since March 20, pre-commissioning at this site were resumed. In general, we see a good prognosis for the development of nuclear energy in India. And we see massive opportunities for their participation. At the same time actively working with EU newcomers, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh. Last year, they signed with the relevant intergovernmental agreements.

— Earlier, you mentioned South Africa. They do not belong to the "newbies"?

Kirill Komarov: They were preparing for this program for a long time. Because nuclear power, by definition, nothing happens quickly. This is an area where the need is very serious, well-informed decisions. There is always a long period of preparation — before you implement such a technologically sophisticated and very expensive projects. We see that today South Africa really coming to the fore, to start in this area to make decisions. And we want to actively participate in it.

— Do you have an explanation of how and with what provisions "Rosatom" managed to keep a large backlog of orders — while other producers are hurt?

Kirill Komarov: The main reason is probably that we did not stop building nuclear power plants. Even after the Chernobyl disaster, when many states have come a very serious pause in the development of nuclear power, Russia quietly, just not as fast as it is now, but she continued to build something, something to complete construction of the previously launched projects — at home and abroad. In this sense, our mechanical engineers, developers, designers have not lost the most important — skills for the construction of nuclear power plants, have been refining source projects. And today you customer can present the most important thing — a successful experience. What is impressive is better than words and promises.

Today we have such a huge backlog of orders that any potential customer can come to any of our facilities and see the construction of a nuclear power plant in any of its stages, from preparation and excavation work on finishing predfinishnymi launch it in operation.

— And competitors such "privileges" no?

Kirill Komarov: For all the talk will not, but if you take, say, a well-known American company, so it is for twenty years has not built a single reactor in the United States. And when it comes, for example, in the Czech Republic, where we are now at the tender compete with them, they are reasonable to ask: "If you do not build such a station at home, why would you want to build it in the Czech Republic?" People ask natural questions is — how safe the proposed project. And here we have an absolute advantage — we can produce the reference, that is already built unit. In other words, we do not offer a "pig in a poke" and nothing that would not do yourself.

This — the first. Second, Russia has an enormous scientific and technological potential, accumulated since the days of the Soviet Union. The following years he continually improved, allowing us to offer our foreign partners and customers the most advanced, reliable and secure solutions.

Hay per cow does not go

— This activity of "Rosatom" in foreign markets creates a kind of alternative to the traditional commodity exports from Russia. Support the government in this case feel?

Kirill Komarov: Certainly. In some places, time to get used to Russia — it’s only supplier of raw materials on the world market. We all know that our country is selling gas, oil, aluminum, and other metals. A truly competitive in the world market of high-tech products is extremely small. Nuclear power offers the chance to develop this area. And it is very gratifying that the first person in the country shared with us this priority and understand that here it is necessary to provide full support.

I would also like to dwell on the world’s only nuclear power plant construction project for a new type of market — "system — Rule over — are exploited." It’s about the Turkish station "Akkuyu." This is very beneficial not only politically but also economically. Russia will increase the share of the world market is high-tech services. In this case, the annual revenue from the sale of electricity at the station will be 3-3.5 billion dollars. In addition, we are increasing the volume of the order of products and services to domestic production, which will give a significant effect on the development of the national industry. These are new jobs and taxes to the Russian budget. Plus up to 10,000 additional jobs in the active phase of construction at the station. This, too, in the vast majority of Russian experts will be.

However, interest in such projects for countries that only faced in the way of development of nuclear power is that we offer a complete solution: funding and facilitate the provision of loans, assistance in the development of national legislation, training and education, guaranteed supply of nuclear fuel, waste spent fuel. Through such projects Russia comes to foreign markets with their technologies to stay.

— It has been reported that in the next two years, "Rosatom" plans to open up to twenty offices around the world. Why is it necessary?

Kirill Komarov: As you know, the cow hay can not walk. If we want our customers to establish a reliable contact, to be with them on a regular communication, understand what they want, what are their aspirations, what configuration they see for themselves, then with them, of course, need to communicate. Especially when you consider that our business is not only to build nuclear power plants, but also to supply fuel, enriched uranium, equipment, provide maintenance services, technical advice and help to support the operation of stations. To do this, just need the customer to be in constant contact. Of course, it is better to do it, as do all of our competitors and all the world’s leading companies. In regions where we see an important their presence and where we develop the business in the first place and become open marketing offices that would be the focus of our interest and in the country, and would make it possible to
communicate with the customer, the opportunity to hear him, to offer him the best of that we have. In short, we will open such offices in locations where we are most active.

— A first appeared in Kiev? Why?

Kirill Komarov: Ukraine has always been for us a very important partner. It is a country where the biggest to date, installed base and existing reactors of Soviet and Russian design — fifteen nuclear units. On the one hand, this is a very serious market — where we supply fuel, enriched uranium. On the other — this is the future for us. Today we have some very serious projects with Ukraine. Together, we are building a plant to produce nuclear fuel on their territory, implementing the project on completion of Khmelnitsky NPP — plus two blocks. There are a number of other projects that are currently in elaboration. In particular, we discuss the possibility of a deeper integration of the Russian and Ukrainian nuclear industrial complexes. For this purpose there is a serious basis. We work in a technological environment, one industrial and manufacturing base. And this cooperation is absolutely logical. It is, they say, comes from life.

Following Ukraine’s plan to open a similar office in the Czech Republic. Because the Czech Republic for us is a very important region. It is the center of Central and Eastern Europe. In the Czech Republic during the time of the CMEA was formed and is now developing a market-based serious scientific, technical and engineering base. And for us it is absolutely logical cooperation with the Czechs not only in one particular project where we participate in the tender for the construction of a new station in their territory, but also in other joint projects with Czech companies in third countries.

calling card

Komarov Kirill B. was born in 1973 in Leningrad. After training at the Ural State Law Academy graduate and has worked in a consulting company and the group of companies "Renova" (Director of Legal Affairs and Project Management, First Deputy General Director, General Director of "Renova — Development").

In 2005-2006 — Deputy Head of the Federal Agency of Water Resources. Since March of 2006 — Vice-President of "fuel elements", since April 2007 — General Director of "AtomEnergoMash."

In September 2008 he was appointed Executive Director of OAO "Atomenergoprom", since April of 2010 — the director of "Atomenergoprom" combined this post with duties of the Executive Director of the Directorate for Nuclear Power Complex SC "Rosatom".

In April 2011 he was appointed Deputy Director General of Rosatom "on development and international business.

Candidate of Legal Sciences.

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