While roasted cock does not bite, you can carry a different snowstorm

While "roasted cock" does not bite, you can carry a different snowstormThe deputy head of the Ministry of Economic Development Andrei Klepac, in charge of macro-economic outlook, gave another interview in which shared the position of the ministry. The main indicators of which read Klepac, were prices oil and the exchange rate, with all this, in his opinion, the ruble could grow by the end of this year to 24-25 rubles. for a buck at oil prices in the range of $ 115-120 per barrel.

More accurately, he said that the average annual cost for oil in 2011 will be above $ 105 per barrel. "Thus there is the possibility of substantial capital inflows in the 2nd half of the year", — said Klepac. These criteria ruble strengthened stronger than waiting for Economic Development in its own baseline projections of economic development.

There is need comment. From the words Klepach implies that there cost oil is determined by purely economic mechanisms that now is not so. Moreover, there is the main thing that really has an impact on these prices — U.S. monetary policy, which almost certainly will change in the coming months. Already, April 27, the Fed may start tightening monetary policy cycle (the reasons for this is), but may, on the contrary, to continue the policy of stimulating the economy. Such solutions Fed could take in June and in the fall.

In this case, if we are going to tighten, it will inevitably lead to the collapse of the speculative markets (other than gold), ie, a drop in global oil prices, thus, can be quite severe. And in this case we talk about the "average" price of $ 105 is not necessary. If monetary policy is relaxed, will be announced programm type QE3, then, on the contrary, the price of oil will rise very.

In other words, Klepac averaged the price of oil on the various lines of the scenario that can not be done. Obviously, one can imagine that he knows that the tightening of monetary policy is scheduled for the fall, that is, to act both scenarios, with a suitable proportion, but here I am inclined to doubt. I doubt even more capital inflows. Where is he, in fact, be pritekat? In what industry, in which regions? Klepac says about it, and without that his reasoning is not very meaningful. Maybe he is referring to the influx of petrodollars? But the extra income will still remain on the external accounts or exporting companies, and the Ministry of Finance (in the spare funds). And private investors are in no hurry to Russia, and, we note, and will not hurry, because where is the profit, it is not clear at all.

Next Klepac said that in the event of such ruble Our homeland will face with the problem of the growth of imports, with the result that badly affects the development of the Russian industry. Here it is impossible to disagree. Too bad he just realized it's so late. If monetary authorities have understood the basic economic patterns of early, perhaps, the crisis in Russia would not have been so strong, and recovery from it — more real.

We note with all this, that Klepac says nothing about what the government is going to do to cope with the adverse effects of the ruble (with capital flight!), But the conversation to the acts of the Central Bank, which, According to Klepach, "acting within their own rules." "These rules will still lead to the fact that there will be capital inflows and the ruble will become stronger," — said the deputy minister. In his view, "it is necessary, or change the rules, or act in any other way." Translated into Russian: at this point in the Ministry of Economic Development of the Central Bank can not act, and his actions are not described by the economic logic, in which the incumbent mayor. Powerful position, do not say anything. But note that it is likely only in this case, if the country in general there is no central authority, which should, in fact, result in different departments "to a common denominator." On the eve of the election is — basic information: to vote for those who are in a position to coordinate the actions of the ministries and departments, as now, such work is not clear.

Klepac further went on to say that for the industry and for the balance of payments of capital inflows and the ruble will mean access to the deficit in the current account by the end of 2012. The bureaucrat said that under the current forecast of Ministry of Economic Development is going to happen only in 2014. That is, it is practically admitted that the forecast is inadequate (but we did not know!), And that the situation is worse than I would like the government. We also note that if oil prices fall down before the end of 2012, the deficit and we will get faster, than at the end of 2012.

In addition, Klepac devoted some time reasoning about the courses and prices, but nothing fundamentally new has been added, so that this part of the interview we will miss him. And in conclusion note, that our government has to reach (though also not in full form) that the situation is a lot worse than he would like to create. With all this, it stubbornly considers only the vital scenario, although even with the naked eye can see that there are at least two feeble places: world prices oil and capital inflows. And if at least one embodiment, things do not go very well, we are fully secured large-scale crisis.

There is also another curious event. The leaders of our country are not economists. It is perfectly evident from the fact that they allow the various departments in a long term lead various economic policies. For information in a certain uniform strategy to awareness picture of the world, and it obviously is not. In addition, our management particularly receptive to frank "noodles" that representatives of the economic bloc can hang it on your ears. Roughly speaking, until the roast cockerel does not bite, you can carry a different blizzard, using all the advantages of his position, but the reality is always pops up suddenly. At this point, the authorities began to suspect something, but he hung another noodles on the "unpredictable" events and catastrophes — and continues to roll on the thumb. Not the most pleasant picture, but, apparently, it was she now has a place in our country.

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