A powerful earthquake in 2015, scientists predict the East Siberia

July 15, 2013. Scientists have noted an increase in seismic activity in the Siberian Federal District. The most powerful earthquake in the last period was in the Kemerovo region, noticeable activity is logged in the Baikal region. On this occasion Portal "Sibinfo" talked to the deputy director of the Institute of the Earth's Crust doctor of geological-mineralogical sciences Cyril Levy.

— Cyril G., it seems that in Siberia became more earthquakes occur. Really now there has been increasing seismic activity?

— Yes, just recently there were two earthquakes with a difference of a few days — Barguzinskaya depression (tectonic element of the Baikal rift system. — "Sibinfo") And most Barguzinsky Gulf. We can say that it was quite large earthquake.

— The Siberian Federal District and the Baikal region observed the same trend in terms of seismic activity, or there is a pronounced its specifics?

— The difference, of course, there is. In the Altai and Tuva dynamic environment defines one situation in the Baikal region — another. Lake Baikal there is a certain tension that is associated with the formation of the rift valley, and in the Altai, Kemerovo region, Tuva there is a situation of horizontal compression and shear. That is, different principles prevail.

You can tell exactly what the Baikal area more seismically active than the Altai and Salair. There's strong events occur at intervals of about 100 years. While that was recently earthquake in the Kuzbass. It is believed that this is one of the strongest man-made earthquakes associated with working coal mines. But here the two told the grandmother.

As for the Baikal area, there is the event with a magnitude of more than four occur quite often.

In general, seismic activity increased slightly, but to say that this is a catastrophic increase, it is impossible. This is a normal life crust, and from time to time there is accumulated tension, which must be removed. And the situations are different, and thus participate magnetic storms that occur on the earth, and atmospheric processes. But in the last month, once again, everyone is really as if lit up — before all drizzled some detail.

— Cyril G., had to face the fact that different branches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, such as the Altai-Sayan and Baikal give about the same earthquake different data.

— This is due to the location of the stations themselves. Our stations are conveniently located in the Baikal system than in the Altai-Sayan. Second, the Altai-Sayan away, so they can some options overstate or understate. Geophysical Survey of the United States, which is installed IRIS, also gives an estimate of the magnitude. But our closest station, so the data is more accurate.

Regional Emergency Management receives data from the Baikal Branch continuously. There has been a significant event — the specialists in the Ministry of Emergency Situations reported.

— By the way, had to face the fact that Europe's seismic monitoring service record is quite powerful push in the same Irkutsk region, and in fact there was no event later found out that the earthquake was north of Australia

— This may be due to the fact that the Mediterranean network is really quite far away from us. You see, the waves from the earthquake are fleeing across the globe and seismic stations of different countries, all of this is fixed, but with our mistakes. In the lithosphere many irregularities on which these waves are delayed, accelerated and therefore a straightforward unobtainable. It can be up after all data statistically processed by all stations. Only then can we find the specific value, but it will be with some kind of mistake.

— And the last question, Cyril G.. In the short term, in the Baikal region is predicted any major seismic event?

— I've said many times that the cycle is 50-60 years. So on average 55. Roughly speaking, we can observe the situation by means of seismic stations only in the last 50 years. All what we have before — it's historical background, which originally errors can be quite solid.

In the period from 1957 to 1959, there were several strong earthquakes. In the summer of 1957 there was a strong earthquake in the Muya basin at BAM. In December — a powerful earthquake in the Gobi-Altai, then in 1959 — an average of Baikal. Then all was quiet. Adding 55 years, we get the 2014-2015 year. We occasionally calculate a sine wave cycle on and can not get out of 2015 (Laughs). All the time. New information is added, and the effect is the same. Statistics shows so. But based on the statistics that it lay. That is, the error may be, but they are objective.

Source: Sibinfo

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