Clantsevy bubble or sell Global

The world is changing global gas market? No — this is just another global sell! Looking through the material of the Western media, and the Russian "friendly" western creates the view that their task is not objectively reflect the problem, and grind certain stereotypes developed by spin doctors to manipulate the public consciousness. If Lukashenko — that Europe's last dictator, if Gazprom — a gas giant, if the gas market — the global change associated with the "shale revolution". At the same time these activities are spent considerable money — it is obvious that in order to gain even more income. Do not think anyone doubts that this is a business.

Let's try to analyze the bases of the mechanism of processing of the population stereotype associated with global changes in the gas market due to the "shale revolution". What is the content of this stereotype. In the technology of gas advanced American science and engineering school has made a quantum leap by harnessing previously considered junk giant gas accumulations confined to deposits of shale widespread in the world. World Energy has received a readily available source, relatively cheap and large, and capable of ensuring the independence of most of the traditional gas producers. As a consequence, the role of the countries have greater resources of gas — Russia, Iran's energy trade is reduced to zero, not to mention the fall of their geopolitical role.

Specialists on projects and experimental work on the production of unconventional gas in the U.S. knew a long time, and technologies like 40 years ago, but the general public "information tsunami" about the "shale revolution" hit in 2009. It took 3 years, it would seem, for this period, all the dregs settle down and everything will become clear, transparent to both professionals and the public, as stated about some giant, which is not seen is not possible when the wave will subside. But no, the situation has not cleared up, and has become even more murky.

One of the main factors of influence on the global gas market, which, strictly speaking, no, that gas production from shale. The fact that shale gas measured in billions of cubic meters, in general, that there is no doubt, but exactly how much is produced, data statistics is complicated and is not complete, and it is very alarming. A large number of bloggers, journalists and experts have to publish figures sharp increase in shale gas production in 2009, with some reported production of 51.1 billion cubic meters3, Russian expert Vladimir Vysotsky gave the figure 67 billion cubic meters3, in most American publications featured figure 87 billion cubic meters3. So how is produced? Argues that the leading firm Chesapeak energy in 2009 produced 70% of the gas, but the published data only company produced 22 billion cubic meters3, wherein only half of shale deposits. The site Chesapeak energy in 2009 reported that the average daily production from the field Barnett Shell in the fourth quarter amounted to 26.9 million m3, and this is the maximum for the year about 10 billion cubic meters3, there is written that it is half the production from shale deposits, then only produced no more than 20 billion cubic meters3.  We live in 2012, should already be cleaned up with the statistics for the previous period, but in fact, this company stopped to publish information on the production of gas from shale deposits on the site. What does that mean?

In 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced his doubts in the "correctness of statistical records of gas", with a hint that there is a suspicion of inflating the data by about 10% and especially the extraction of shale gas. However, the expected scandal in the United States over the falsification of data followed. "Secretly" reduced production in 2009 by 10 billion cubic meters3, but 10% of the 600 billion cubic meters3 Annual production is 60 billion m3, rather than the 10 billion cubic meters3. And this is more in line with the previously performed calculations. So what numbers to believe?

Fig.1

The question arises, the current situation with statistics — an unprecedented or earlier as different sources give different figures for gas. Fig. 1 shows the gas production in the United States based on IEA — an information unit of the Ministry of Energy and BP statistical review ofword energy. As can be seen from the figure there is a slight difference. BP underestimates prey, but rather within the error statistics

Particularly strong underestimation of gas production in the statistics BP does for Russia — see Fig. 2. In the Russian Federal State Statistics Service data cited, the Department of Energy (CDU TEK), Gazprom is also sometimes different, but no more than 1-1.5 billion cubic meters3. And experts BP regularly underestimates production of about 60 billion cubic meters3 every year, and the reason is not clear. There is speculation that they exclude the production of associated gas, but for what reason? There is the opinion of one expert, they exclude amounts of non-hydrocarbon gases — hydrogen sulfide in the Astrakhan and Orenburg fields, but there's total production can so affect, not to mention that the amount of hydrogen sulfide in the Astrakhan field no more than 25%, 5 billion cubic meters3Annual production is only 1.25 billion cubic meters3. Since this is a mismatch regular, we can say definitely — this is most likely connected with the method of accounting. And that's what's going on with a statistical view of shale gas — this situation is chaotic, and therefore unprecedented.

Figure 2

Most importantly, it's tempting to think of the total falsification of data on shale gas — these data can not be verified. What we have in mind. Check would be to analyze the data on the extraction of shale gas in specific fields, with no need to communicate general information on the volume of drilling wells and putting in the whole United States, and specifically, what company has drilled wells as site-specific as well put as bogged down, how many to expect a connection or repair, etc. That is the usual statistics of the gas organizations, which for example, is reported by Gazprom and other Russian companies. From these data, a qualified person can make their own independent evaluation of gas production. So these statistics on shale gas — no, more than that and you are sure that it is done intentionally. To date, no U.S. organization who value their reputation, including the Ministry of Energy and Information Unit (EIA), Bureau of Mines does not publish information on shale gas — it's not a coincidence. Weather — please, and actual production — no.

The second factor that points to fraud "shale revolution" — is the lack of information on the composition of the gas. For all gas fields, gas composition is known, is one of the standard required parameters in the study of the subject. On the exact composition of shale gas is not given, get off with statements such as "predominantly methane." Bearish on the field of methane gas in the 98% — a clear and specific figure, but mainly methane may be at 51% of the methane and 49% nitrogen, but it is generally not conditioned gas. It is nearly dark and its calorific value does not meet the standards.

Why is it important to know the composition of the gas. The gas composition determines not only the calorific value of gas condition, respectively, the cost of bringing it up to standard and price, but also determines the environmental requirements. The composition may include shale gas hydrogen sulfide, which makes it impossible to transport and incineration without purification, but it is an additional cost, production economy, respectively. On top of the shales, as well as all of clay, low-level radioactive, and gas composition can include radioactive radon. And it already defines standards of safety, control, etc., which is also related to the cost, or if it does not do — with pollution.

Here is an example of manipulating facts and resourcefulness essentially related to the composition of the gas "gazoslantsedobytchikov." The Polish national gas company in the first quarter of 2010, announced the beginning of a broad exploration of shale drilling on several sites. Drill a well to a depth of 3-4 km, after Derrick works, even in a difficult section requires one to two months. A drilling results were not reported for one and a half years, only in the 4th quarter of 2011 reported that the results of drilling in the Podlasie Basin within 100 km from Warsaw "Molodecheno-1" unsatisfactory and everything. What is the cause of unsatisfactory results, than they appear? Leave the answer, and only from our foreign colleagues, "secret", we are told that in the flow of gas, resulting in the well about 20% methane. It is not at all the natural gas in the usual sense as fossil fuels. A hidden because it means that all the resources of the Podlaskie pools that figure as high-potential does not actually exist, they should be deleted from estimates, and do not want to. So many things can povycherkivat, from giant shale gas resources may remain "horns and hoofs."

With such a problem related to the composition of the gas may be encountered in other areas, so the composition of shale gas is forbidden to speak. It should be said that the exploration works, there have been occasions when the first results were negative, and then the manifestation of geologists perseverance, their professional level, finally discovered huge deposits, high-output, etc. Exploration risky business, and, therefore, may follow the results of drilling on the shale gas deposits in Poland will be better, but why the secrecy now. One answer — this is due to the propaganda struggle, it is dosed reported evidence.

The third thing that is surprising and suspicion of manipulation — a statement that the United States dramatically increased their production of gas, even as they say "easily pushed out of first place Russia" at the expense of shale gas, whose vast resources are already involved in a cost-effective production. This in turn has led to what they say gas prices in the U.S. fell sharply and were lower than in Russia. This paradigm is not discussed, it is believed that it is a proven, as they say is a medical fact. But is this true?

Figure 3

If we look at the natural gas production in the U.S. (Figure 3), since the period of the 80s, you will see that it is sinusoidal, the periods of increased production followed by periods of decline and there is no shale gas or not. The main factor influencing the periodic change in the level of gas production in the U.S. is not the resource base, although it affects, and the level of gas prices in the country. It is well known to experts. High gas prices make effective investment, it is the drilling of new wells, intensifying activities in the constructed wells, access to new objects, etc. And as soon as the gas market in the U.S. overflows — prices are coming down. Declining profitability of the business, investment declines and this leads to a decrease in production. What factor — the high prices or the "discovery of shale deposits" contributed to the increased investment and therefore increase gas production in the whole United States at the end of zero years has not been studied, just assumed that it is the role of shale gas. For me, as an expert to predict that in 2012 due to lower gas prices will decline in production in the U.S. is not something new, paradoxical, and no matter how many actually mined shale gas. You will be mistaken for six months, but no more.

Once again, I stress that there is no real evidence that the increase in gas production in the U.S. was primarily due to an increase in shale gas production, it could be due to increased production in traditional deposits and non-traditional, including shale deposits, the volume of production of which besides not reliably established.

 

Figure 4

As for the comparison of gas prices in the U.S. and in Europe, in Russia. It is incorrect and biased. You can only compare the incomparable. You can not compare the price of gas to Russian consumers and the wholesale price on the trading floor «Henry Hab». Figure 4 shows that in the first place, the United States, unlike the Russian gas price is differentiated winter-summer, winter, gas is more expensive and the difference is significant. Secondly, unlike U.S. Russian gas price differentiated depending on the user. The minimum price for energy and industry, and the maximum for residential customers, and the difference of $ 200-300 per thousand cubic meters3.

 

 

Figure 5.

If we're talking about the U.S. gas market compared to the Russian should pay attention to two significant differences. The first — a high proportion of the local market of gas consumption (gas source is located near the consumer), the United States, it reaches 30%, and in Russia (and in Europe), the local market is almost no gas consumption. 99% of Russia's gas is transported by pipelines. This feature is important to analyze the role of shale gas. And the second highest proportion in the consumer price of gas attributable to vendors, resellers and gas timing. In the U.S., for the same with the Russian gas pipeline capacity of 600 billion cubic meters3 in the year of twice the length and if the gas pipelines in Russia is essentially in two corridors from the North to the South and West, the United States, they are more complex, often looped. This allows the U.S. to implement the reverse supply of gas, which allows you to actually sell gas, and therefore there is a large number of resellers of gas. If you look at the structure of the consumer price of gas, the Russian major costs associated with transport — 55%, and in the U.S. — it's gas distribution and speculators, the latter in Russia yet.

Feature extraction of shale gas is that it is not transported by pipelines, can not be liquefied and exported. His fate of the local market of gas consumption, mainly for power generation. Some experts, for example, in Ukraine, claiming that shale gas is the same as conventional natural, only a marginal well — that's all. Marginal wells results in order to achieve cost-effective production of depression set the maximum, the collector is stable and there is no problem with the removal of sand. The only limitation — the pressure in the cracks should not allow the overburden pressure to close them, crush fracture. This means that the minimum head pressure and allow for economic reasons no clear shale gas, or raise the pressure of the compression. In order to increase the pressure on the mouth for manufacturing operations bringing shale gas to the condition have to sacrifice rate of the well, which is already at the minimum pressure at the mouth at the limit of profitability. Thus, theoretically, shale gas can be brought up to standard Urengoyskoye Qatari gas or gas technically, but practically it is contrary to economic reasons, so it can not be done.

Shale gas is supplied to the local consumer at short distance from the well, so the price of gas at the mouth and the price of gas consumers do not differ significantly. In the price of shale gas is not the components of transportation and gas distribution (see Fig. 5), but in this case it is a competitive normal gas. We emphasize once again that the destiny of shale gas is only a local consumer market is the United States, there are approximately 150-180 billion cubic meters of3 year. But in this market, there are competitors — gas production from individual wells, depleted fields, from tight sands, from coal, so in principle, the ceiling level of shale gas will be the level of 100-120 billion cubic meters3/ Year. Possible to increase the market by reducing the production of conventional gas or coal displacement, but not significantly. In Europe and the Russian gas market is almost no local consumption. Leg company has drilled 3 wells in Poland, has its exploration program and is trying to sell the gas from them in a small amount, but the buyer is not yet, perhaps, not for economic reasons.

About craftiness statistics on gas production. A number of journalists, particularly why that Ukrainian and Belarusian wrote that in 2009, the U.S. easily pushed Russia out of first place in gas production. However, this is based on the data cited BP statistical review of word energy, but if look at the data of Russian statistics, we do not lose the first place. The information specialists who receive BP — this information from official sources, not from the agents, illegal immigrants, but they are in their very peculiar. For example, a fully trust the information coming from the Ukraine, which states that produces about 18 billion cubic meters3 year. But check out these data is not possible, because in Ukraine is prohibited to report information on the production of gas from specific fields, gas fields — is a state secret. One of the most terrible secrets of Ukraine. Because there is a suspicion that some 2-3 billion cubic meters3 Ukraine annually stealing Russian gas transit. At the same time, this figure is not verifiable believes BP, but the statistics of the Russian — no. But in Russia, these data can be easily checked, because in specialized publications we regularly publishes quarterly information on gas production both in companies and in specific fields. Falsify this information is a real opportunity there, and it's not who do not need, but about 60 billion cubic meters3 in the year of our open BP statistics remove the cause is not known.

A global change in the world gas market. Global gas market does not exist. Is a closed North American market, there is European, there is gas market in the Asia-Pacific region. The interaction of these markets is very weak. A significant decrease in gas prices in the U.S. in recent years as a result of excess gas in the North American market, regardless of its origin, in some way related to the European market and only a single source of gas — in Qatar. Western media disinformation explain the situation in the European gas market that Qatar by investing heavily in the development of the North Field, built terminals for liquefied methane carriers acquired the tanker. All this is intended to supply gas to the U.S., but there due to shale gas Qatari gas was not necessary and the flow of LNG from Qatar went to Europe, which led to a sharp decline in gas prices in Europe.

In part, this reflects the real picture, but it does not change the global market, and the local factor, really connected with Qatar, which will inevitably be in the foreseeable future, and dampened the European gas market will return to its previous state, to the action of the well-studied and predicted factors influencing this market. Falling gas prices in Europe in 2008 due to the crisis and the decline in production. This led to the fact that many countries, supplying LNG to Europe significantly reduced the supply of LNG to Europe, such as Algeria, Nigeria, Qatar and only stepped up the supplies. The reason for reducing the supply of LNG from Algeria — purely economic, the supplies have become unprofitable, while Qatar dumping and supplied gas at prices well below the gas network. In some publications, the cost of Qatari LNG in the port estimated at $ 90-100 / thousand m3. In this case, the cost of production of gas from the North Field of approximately $ 20/tys.m3, Gas treatment and liquefaction costs $ 20-30 / thousand m3, Transportation and $ 80-100 / thousand m3. Hence it is clear that Qatar is selling gas at a loss. Continues it is 4-5 years, but the loss-making gas supplies continue. What is it?

 

Figure 6

The fact that the gas deposit Northern high condensate of about 200 g / m3. The condensate from the gas is not included in the student's record volumes of liquid hydrocarbons in the OPEC quota. Quotas for Oil Qatar correspond to the order of 36-37 million tons, which corresponds to the level of oil production by Qatar 2000-2002 (see Fig. 6). Currently, Qatar exported 65.7 million tons. Growth of exports — 77%, while in other OPEC countries this increase is not more than 1 percent over this period. Qatar has found a loophole significant increase in oil exports due to condensation in the period of high oil prices. Qatar gas production can be regarded as a companion, and therefore to sell gas at dumping prices. Although at the present time, the price of LNG is only 25% lower than pipeline gas. With the price of the last $ 400 / thousand m3 — It turns out that Qatar LNG and sell at a profit, after the conquest of positions in Europe.

Qatar creates an excess supply of gas to Europe and thereby undercut. At the same time, the consumption of gas in Europe about 1 trln.m3 gas to 36 billion cubic meters a year3 Qatar exported to Europe weather do not. However, the main consumers of LNG Qatar — United Kingdom (13.9 billion cubic meters3), Italy (6.2 billion cubic meters3), Belgium (5.8 billion cubic meters3), Spain (5.5 billion cubic meters3) And previously received LNG, but from other exporting countries.

The impact of these supplies to the Russian gas supplies are mediated, but give a serious weapon in the propaganda war against Russia the EU for the redistribution of the gas market under the banner of so-called liberalization. Qatar's position does not fit into the framework of a leading organization for cooperation of Gas Exporting Countries, OPEC, and the principles of the WTO. Russia should call to order "a bully." But basically, Russia enough to withstand the pressure, and the factor of time will put everything in its place. These processes are manifest in the period not exceeding 2 years. American politicians have tried to squeeze out of the shale is not only gas, but also significant political arguments, but until the gas and in limited quantities.

Recent reports have been increasingly exported to mention "shale gas" from the U.S.. This false reports, because the U.S. is engaged in re-export LNG from Trinidad and Tobago and other countries. If these reports are analyzed together with the reports of the capacity of U.S. exports of refined petroleum products, it is more likely reflects the stagnation or even recession of the real economy, and therefore they will export the surplus to more attractive markets.

Nenakhov VA

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