According to data released on May 17 the U.S. Census Bureau, for the first time in the history of the country from ethnic and racial minorities were born more children than white Americans of European descent. Now the debate about what will change in the demographics of the country, flare up with renewed vigor. The current news is already occupied the front pages of American newspapers.
From July 2010 to July 2011 in the United States are born approximately four million children. 50.4 percent of them (2,019,176 people) were children of ethnic and racial minorities. 1988824 born white man (meaning only those whose parents have European roots, white Americans of Hispanic origin in this study belong to a minority.) For comparison, in 1990, the children of minorities was 37 percent of newborns.
This is to be expected — the number of births among white Americans is slightly higher than the number of deaths. According to The Wall Street Journal, last year at 1,000 deaths they had only 1,025 births. For every white American woman in 2010 had an average of 1.8 births, while residents of the United States Hispanic — 2.4. Fertility and in whites and non-whites is on the wane, but the white is falling faster. It is worth to note that the average age of Americans with Latin American roots less than that of whites. This partly explains the fact that the former is more children.
The average age in the U.S. white is generally higher than other groups. More than the average white American, 42 years old, Asian, and African-Americans — 30 with a small, American and Latin American roots — less than 28.
According to the Pew Hispanic Center, the main reason for the growth of the latter group in the United States is already a high birth rate, not immigration. With regard to immigration, from Mexico, she said, for example, has stopped. But those who have already arrived — it's usually young people who are willing to give birth to children.
Among the minorities themselves the situation is as follows. On Hispanics and their descendants from July 2010 to July 2011 had 26.2 percent of all births in the United States (1.05 million), African Americans — 15.3 percent (slightly more than 613,000 newborns) for Asian Americans — 4.6 percent (more than 185,000), on the Indians and Native — 1.7 percent (more than 66,000). In this case, the fastest growing as a percentage of the number of Americans of Hispanic and Asian origin.
For different age groups of minorities are not the same. Among Americans over 50 years of black on the number second only to white, but in the younger age groups, and they are inferior to white, and the Americans with Latin American roots.
In the American press attention is mainly on the advantages that the U.S. has because of minorities. In European countries, due to low birth rates among whites overall population decline. In the U.S., the birth rate among the descendants of Europeans about the same, but thanks to the fertility of minority population as a whole is not shrinking and growing (here, however, need to take into account and immigrants), and the proportion of young people is higher than in other developed countries. Such an advantage over the United States and Japan have a population decline. In Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, Hispanic Americans do not give depopulate small towns that might otherwise disappear from the map. In the U.S., there are many districts where white Americans of European descent are a minority among children under five years of age. In September 2011 it was reported that the number of whites fell in 15 states.
The basic sense of what is happening is clear: Right now, minorities make up the majority of the children, then after a while they will be the majority in the general population. So far, white with European roots in the United States 63.4 percent of Hispanic Americans — 16.7 percent (whites among them about half) African Americans — 12.3 percent, Asian Americans — 4.8 percent. The entire population of the country has already exceeded 313 million.
According to recent estimates, the white will be in the United States less than 50 percent by 2042 (reduction of immigration, however, according to some experts, may postpone that moment until 2050 or even later). Descendants of Europeans was less than half in California, Texas, New Mexico, Hawaii and the District of Columbia in the capital (almost 50 percent of the population of Washington — African-Americans).
What will all these changes is unclear. It is not clear, for example, what impact will that happens on the level of crime — according to the latest available data (for 2009), minorities make up the majority of U.S. prison inmates (alone there are more blacks than whites). Already in school arrests are mostly African Americans and Hispanics. Does this mean that the U.S. should expect a rise in crime or somehow manage to escape? On foreign policy, the United States, most likely, will pay more attention to Latin America. After all, to some extent, the United States and has become a continuation of the Latin American civilization, not just European.
See also Death of the West. New Reconquista.