Keep global warming at a relatively safe level of less than 2 degrees over the next 50 years is almost impossible, recognize the summit on climate change, which will start its work today in Cancun, Mexico.
Most experts doubt the success of the summit, which starts Mexican. The fact that the views on the key issue — the future of the Kyoto Protocol — are too different. For example, in Japan, a kind of "homeland" of the Kyoto Protocol, is strongly opposed to extending it. A number of countries, including Russia, would like to see a new general agreement, which would be differentiated actions by developed and developing countries, according to "RIA Novosti". At the same time Russia is declared presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich, will follow their own plans — to 2020 reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30 billion tons, or 25% relative to 1990 levels — regardless of the outcome of Cancun.
On the eve of the summit scientists make apocalyptic predictions for the near future: the growth temperature of the planet will be at least twice more intense than pronozirovalos — by 2060, the average temperature will rise by at least 4 degrees. This will lead to catastrophic consequences for the majority of countries in Africa and Asia. It will be virtually impossible to farm. The already dry areas become dead desert. Problems with food stir migration flows and by the end of this century, the planet awaits chaos.
"Despite all the loud statements, including those made at last year's summit in Copenhagen, the chance of keeping the temperature rise at an acceptable level, no more," — said climate scientist Kevin Anderson, representing the University of Manchester. British experts have presented a very tough assessment of the situation, they are convinced that the UN plans to reduce emissions and the gradual transition to renewable sources of energy were built by people in the "rose-colored glasses."
"2010 is a watershed year in the political sense. The world has the last chance to stop the approaching apocalypse climate, affect the industrial countries such as China, the U.S. and Russia, to tighten the requirements and monitor the implementation ", — says Anderson. Otherwise, the average temperature of the planet by 2060 will be higher by 3-4 degrees, and in some regions — Southern Europe and North Africa, for example, growth could be 6-8 degrees. At 4-5 degrees hotter in the north will be the United States, in Canada and in China.
The summit, which will take place from 29 November to 10 December, will be the 16 th in a row meeting the UN Framework Convention on Climate and the sixth — the parties to the Kyoto Protocol. As expected, Cancun will bring together about 15,000 participants. In the first week of the conference talks will be held in the framework of working groups, and from December 7 to begin high-level meeting, which will arrive heads of state and ministers of environment and climate policy.