June 27, 2013. According to the U.S. National Weather Service, this year the waters of the Pacific Ocean and its coast along without two well-known phenomena of atmospheric, warm and wet El Niño and La Niña cool. The World Meteorological Organization also confirms this information, indicating that the climatic structure over the Pacific Ocean before the end of the year will remain neutral, but is left to inaccurate forecasts a slight chance.
The absence of both El Niño and La Niña events were caused by the fact that last year, the water temperature in the ocean, the water level, cloud cover and other parameters were not favorable enough for both phenomena. Only in early 2013, the water temperature is a little closer to that which is necessary for La Niña, but it was not enough.
Now less than a quarter used in the U.S. climate models indicate the likelihood of conditions that resemble very weak La Niña, in the period from June to September. Less than one fifth of models predict that by the end of 2013 on the ground will be El Nino.
Should I rejoice in this forecast is still unknown. But this prediction is hardly not like the Pacific coast of South America, which can breathe a sigh of relief and not wait for floods, landslides and new victims, and to the west of Oceania can exclude serious drought from the failed El Niño. Yet the fact that these phenomena are weaker, signal a change in climate patterns that going to benefit other regions, can cause ecological or climatic catastrophe in the other. For example, in the Indian Ocean in the east of the water was warmer than normal, while in the west strongly cooled.