The head of the Global Network of earthquake prediction (GNFE, London) Elchin Khalilov said that before the end of 2010, there is nothing to fear, but at the same time, the expert does not want to cause premature excitement among the population.
N. ABASOV. Interview with the President of the Global Network of earthquake prediction (GNFE, London), Vice-President of the International Academy of Sciences (Austria, Innsbruck), chairman of the International Committee on Global Change subsurface GEOCHANGE (London), Professor Elchin Khalilov, organized specially for the newspaper "Echo" Press Service GNFE.
— The site GNFE presented a long-term forecast of increased seismic activity in the compression zone of the Earth with the highest values in 2013-2015. As far as the forecast will affect the whole of the Caucasus and Azerbaijan in particular.
— Indeed, GNFE presented a forecast on its website in 2009. But I would like to emphasize that even earlier, in 2008, this forecast was made public in the pages of foreign and Azerbaijani press, with the only difference being that the start date of the extreme value of the seismic activity is indicated in 2012, and was subsequently refined. The same forecast was presented to me in conjunction with the Academy of Sciences of the USSR Academy of Sciences and ANAS Victor Efimovich Khain in two fundamental monographs, published in Bulgaria in 2008 and Moscow in 2009, as well as in numerous articles in international scientific journals.
Seismic processes will also be accompanied by a substantial increase in the activity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes (mainly in the U.S. and Canada), abrupt climate change. As expected, this process has already begun, as evidenced by the statistics of natural disasters since the beginning of 2010, partly published in the newspaper "Echo". Earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, Turkey, China, Taiwan and other countries, volcanoes in the Far East, Iceland, etc.
As for the Caucasus, given the fact that the Caucasus is one segment of the giant Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, part of the compression regions of the Earth, increasing seismic activity, of course, in this period will affect both the Caucasus and Azerbaijan.
— You are not entirely uncommon to hear such straining for residents of Azerbaijan forecast. Many are accustomed to your soothing speeches, especially after the earthquake in Baku November 25, 2000.
— I'd be happy to, as before, to make a soothing statements. But it was not always the case. Let's go back to the historical past. October 2, 1999 was first published in Baku earthquake prediction in the article: "To say that the earthquake in Baku is possible — that's absurd," which literally reads as follows: "And I can pick out a place where we should expect an earthquake. According to my calculations, it may happen in the northeast of the Absheron Peninsula, mainly in the offshore part. " The same article states and the power of the expected earthquake — about 6 points. Subsequently, in the newspaper "Alam" from 8-14 December 1999 was predicted and expected period of time in Baku earthquake — until early 2001. As you know, all the three parameters of the medium-term fully confirmed November 25, 2000 — the place and the power of the earthquake.
I can temporarily reassure our citizens that, for the probability of a strong earthquake in Azerbaijan before the end of 2010 is quite low.
At the same can not be said to increase the activity of mud volcanoes. Although the maximum of their activity will also have for 2013-2015, but since the middle of 2010 will begin mud volcanoes in Azerbaijan. As you know, our country is concentrated more than half of all the mud volcanoes in the world, the number is 300. Some of them are considered to be extinct. Meanwhile, active tectonic movement and compression processes in the Earth's crust, compounded by the periodic passage of tectonic waves, wake, many "dormant" mud volcanoes. If we talk about the dangers of these eruptions for the people, such a risk exists primarily to communities directly adjacent to the craters of mud volcanoes. Unfortunately, in recent years around the craters of many mud volcanoes built many private houses, and they are subject to the maximum danger. Emissions of mud volcanoes can be accompanied by a strong explosion of accumulated hydrocarbon gases, which at the time of discharge is usually ignited, creating a huge temperature around the volcano spewing mud and warming (breccia) to a boil. These hot mud flows can wash away homes located around the crater, moving down the slopes of the volcano, and pose a serious danger to the life and health of people.
According to our forecasts, activated and many sea volcanoes, both underwater and island. This will create a greater hazard to shipping, as allocated by eruptions of mud volcanoes hydrocarbon gases are not only explosive, but also can reduce the density of sea water during eruptions of undersea volcanoes. This in turn may lead to flooding vessels sailing on this area.
It is expected that during this period of time will also become active landslide areas of Azerbaijan. Our observations showed that the landslide begin to appear during the passage through the landslide zone of slow tectonic waves that distort the Earth's layers. More often it is the tectonic waves recorded by our stations and not to the tremors, provoking landslides, subsidence and slow movements of the soil, the formation of relatively shallow, but distinct cracks on the surface of the earth.
— How dangerous is this period of time for the oil industry?
— Enough is dangerous. The active tectonic movement, which will be the bottom of the Caspian Sea, can cause damage to the columns of oil wells, pipelines passing through the Caspian Sea, an increase of abnormally high formation pressures, which are often the cause of accidents during drilling.
— And when the earthquake will start in Azerbaijan?
— Active seismic processes in the Caucasus, including Azerbaijan, will start from the end of 2010. Why is that? The fact that approximately 15 years ago Geophysics registered an increase speed of the magnetic poles by 500%. Prior to that, roughly about 100 years, this rate remained virtually unchanged. During the earlier period of the data is not there. At first glance, not for an experienced person, it may not mean anything. But experts in the field of geodynamics — a sign of impending danger. The fact that the earth's magnetic field is formed in its core, as a result of motion of the liquid outside the nucleus, relative to the inner solid — original dynamo. If there is a fivefold increase in the velocity of the magnetic poles, therefore, in the core speed of the outer core with respect to the inside rose sharply. That is at the core began to appear a giant extra energy that shapes the life of our planet — moving continents, volcanoes erupt, creating an earthquake. There is a period of transmission of energy to the surface. Now is the time for the lithosphere — the outermost shell of the Earth, began to pick up this energy, accelerating the movement of huge crustal plates carrying the continents and the ocean floor.
Another factor influencing the increase in seismic and volcanic activity is solar activity. Expected cycle of solar activity, the maximum of which is projected for 2013, has already begun to manifest itself in early 2010. As you can see, it all fits together.
Now we have seen the first activate primarily seismically active area, where the crust is thin — Oceanic (Haiti, the ocean floor off the coast of Chile, Indonesia, etc.). By the end of 2010, this energy will be selected to the more massive the continental crust, which will result in strong earthquakes in the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt.
Since the end of 2010 the Caucasus will "shake", could be discharged pockets in which the voltage reached the critical values. But from 2011 to residents of the Caucasus will become obvious that the era of seismic activity, which will last until 2015, with two peaks, a smaller one in 2012 and stronger than in 2013-2015, among which the activity will decline slightly.
— What are the areas in Azerbaijan, the most dangerous?
— I would not want to answer this question, because it may cause premature unrest among the population. On the part of GNFE will be directed to the appropriate information to the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Azerbaijan in accordance with the charter of the international organization, with headquarters in London.
GNFE prepared a special card with medium-term forecast of catastrophic earthquakes c force of more than 7 on the Richter scale, which can occur with a probability of about 80% in the period from late 2010 to 2015. The map shows predominantly featured in seismically active areas megacities, where the population exceeds 10 million, as well as some of the city with an average population of 10.2 million people. Among the major cities including San Francisco, Los Angeles, Mexico City, Tokyo, Istanbul, Jakarta, Kobe, Kanto, Yogyakarta, Delhi, Tehran and others. This map is available on the website of the Global Network for ethical reasons. But it will be sent to the governments of the respective countries in which the expected catastrophic earthquake.
The most earthquake-prone region in the world is Indonesia. Here, in this period of time, catastrophic volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. High probability of volcanic eruptions of Krakatoa and Mount Merapi, located on the island of Java. In Italy during this period is expected eruption of volcanoes Vesuvius and Etna, which can cause great casualties and destruction.
These medium-term forecasts of volcanic eruptions received by us based on the results of the first in Azerbaijan, officially registered under number 239 scientific discovery called "The pattern of spatial and temporal distribution of volcanic eruptions," sponsored by the academicians Mehtiev S., W. Hain, T. and Ismailzade Khalilov.
— In the press from time to time there are reports of confirmed short-term earthquake prediction, given GNFE. Is the weather GNFE?
— I will start the answer with the official figure. Recent statistics GNFE, openly published on the website — 89% of confirmed predictions of 58 presented to the August 1, 2009 until the end of March 2010.
I have cited figures can be officially endorsed by all participants of the network and in subdivisions GNFE, as well as in academic and government institutions in Indonesia, Pakistan, the U.S., Turkey, Great Britain and Germany.
Forecasts are provided on the basis of the interpretation of records of three-dimensional variations of the gravitational field that occur before strong earthquakes of the Eastern Hemisphere for 2-10 days before the push, registered special stations forecasting earthquakes ATROPATENA. These stations are now housed in Pakistan, Indonesia and Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan placed three stations in different versions. The most recent modification of the station — Atropatena Crystal (Kh10), which is manufactured and put into operation in 2010. All stations are connected to a single global network and real-time transmit the entire recording information via the Internet to a central database, hosted in the U.S.. In 2010 it is planned to install a few stations in the Western Hemisphere, after which GNFE will make short-term forecasts in the field of the Earth.
One of the most important advantages of the new technology is that the first time it became possible to predict not only the three standard parameters — power, place and time of the earthquake, but the fourth parameter — the number of strong aftershocks, which puts these forecasts to a new level, as compared to all known methods. Recall the strong earthquake in Italy, which took place April 6, 2009 in the town of L'Aquila. During the first tremor killed more than 150 people. Meanwhile, from 6 to 9 April 2009 there was a further 5 aftershocks with magnitudes greater than five points, which resulted in additional significant destruction and loss of life. In total, during these earthquakes killed more than 300 people and about 1,200 people were injured.
At that time, we had only two stations — in Baku and Islamabad, but even in this case have been reported anomalies in front of each of the 6 tremors and determined direction in the direction of Italy (to determine the location of the epicenter must be at least three stations not located on the same line). And to this conclusion at the same time there came two research groups — the Research Institute of Forecasting and Earthquake Research in Baku and in the Center for Earthquake Research Center of the National Physical Pakistan. Meanwhile, 89% — this is not 100%. We understand that there is still a lot to do before the system will be implemented and work effectively around the world.
— Information about the success GNFE really encouraging. And whether any measures to somehow draw the world's attention to the problem of approximation of the era of natural disasters?
— Of course, being taken. And one of such large-scale events is Communiqué of the International Global Change subsurface GEOCHANGE, already signed by prominent scientists from more than 40 countries. This paper put forward concrete proposals aimed at reducing casualties and economic damage caused by natural disasters.
Participants in the communiqué at the end of 2009 created the International Committee on Global Change of the geological environment, which included prominent scientists from 30 countries of the world. The main objective of the International Committee — the implementation of the program advanced by the communiqué. In the near future, the communique will be sent to the UN Secretary General, the governing bodies of the EU heads of states and other international organizations.
· Communiqué «GEOCHANGE»
· 2010 will be a year of disasters
· The whole island was submerged
· In Africa, the ocean is born — the Afar triangle. Photo
· Strengthening of seismic and volcanic activity