Haifa laboratory earthquake warning
predict.y @ gmail.com
< Часть 2
The dependence of the difference in arrival time of the waves and the start time of the earthquake jolts appropriate distance from the sensor to the epicenter of this earthquake, given the correlation over 0.99, indicating that the mathematical formula-dependence of these parameters.
This wave is called the wave of the author Kozyrev-Jagodina (KaY-wave) of the names of the author (Jagodin) and the names of the great Russian astronomer — Kozyrev predicted the relationship of tectonic activity of the Earth and the Moon, which is important in the genesis of earthquakes and the formation of this wave. ?
In view of this formula have been conducted comparing the location of experienced real peaks, predicting a particular group of earthquakes and their calculated position on the time axis for the same group of earthquakes.
The results illustrate the excellent accuracy of the method and the stability of the formula. The data do not change throughout the time trials (2005 to 2012).
This suggests the possibility of using plants with these sensors to determine the direction of the front KaY-wave parameters and predictions of future earthquakes.
Knowing the time of the advent of the peaks of the signal wavelength, and their coordinates are determined by the vector in the direction of the wave front.
Crossing the vectors on the plane defined by the place of the future epicenter of the earthquake.
Knowing the velocity of the waves, it is easy to calculate the time of arrival of the wave of the future to the point of the epicenter of the earthquake and the start and end of the earthquake. ? ? ?
At the peak of real and appropriate follow earthquakes constructed calibration graph of the amplitude of the peak due to the sensor and the magnitude of the earthquake, and calculated correction factors.
The following entries are displayed with two stations, which is clearly visible opportunity to determine the direction of the wave front to the site of the future epicenter of the earthquake, using the registration KaY-waves on the neighboring stations.
Steady flow front KaY-waves through the station, while driving in the direction of the wave of the future epicenter of the earthquake.
When traveling wave in the opposite direction (to the East), the peaks of the waves initially recorded in Haifa and then in Nesher.
In 2004, this method with the use of animals has received a positive review of Dr. Arie Gilad (inst. Geology of Israel). ?
In 2004-2005. Institute, Technion (Haifa) confirmed the possibility of creating an automated system to monitor the behavior of fish, and the prediction of earthquakes. ?
The method was introduced in 2005 at a meeting of the Knesset Science and received the approval of Dr. Einat Aronova (inst. Weizmann). ?
In 2006, the discovery of the method and have been approved by the EC and the Russian Academy of Sciences recommended that further research in this direction. ?
The method has been repeatedly presented by the author alone and in collaboration with the Academy of Civil Protection Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation at seminars and conferences on humanitarian operations in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tel Aviv in 2009-2011. ? ? ?
After examination of Sciences in 2012 confirmed the opening wave of Kozyrev-Jagodina (KaY-waves), wave-precursors "Heralds" and praised the test of earthquake prediction, real-time data. Set of methods proposed by the author, is recommended for use in precise operational earthquake prediction.
Earthquake warning system for Europe
Earthquake Warning System for Europe (SEPfE) is built on the basis of the monitoring network-wave Kozyrev Jagodina (KaY-wave)
on the basis of a patent (WO2008053463) SYSTEM OF THE PREDICTION OF THE EARTHQUAKE
under review of the Expert Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences on seismic hazard of the examination phase of commercialization of techniques and theoretical considerations and practical predictions of monitoring stations KaY-wave.
The system consists of the International Center for Earthquake Prediction and 25 monitoring stations KaY-wave. Their approximate location shown in the diagram (white squares — the station) and provides accurate predictions of space, power, start and end time of the earthquake aftershocks for 20-30 hours at a magnitude of more than five.
System has not been worse:
start and the prediction accuracy closure shocks time 10-20 minutes;
the accuracy of determining the position of the epicenter of the earthquake of 50 to 100 km;
accuracy of prediction of 0.5-magnitude earthquake strength.
The reliability is very high, so as the same wave on its way, repeatedly measured at stations on the range boundaries.
With the same parameters, the following table layout stations for early prediction on the region of California requires only 16-25 stations. They save lives tens of millions of Californians living on the San Andreas Fault.
VN Andreev, VN Medvedev. PROBLEMS OF SEISMIC RISK Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).
Alexandr Yagodin. (WO/2008/053463) SYSTEM OF THE PREDICTION OF THE EARTHQUAKE. PCT Patent Application.
A. Jagodin. The International Centre for Prevention (predictions) earthquakes.
A. Jagodin. «HEROLDES», «Gerold" — EDUCATION IN THE CLOUDS, to predict earthquakes.
Kozyrev. "On the relationship of tectonic processes of the Earth and the Moon." Ed. LSU 1991
L. Petrov, E. Orlov, VV Karpinski. "On the structure and dynamics of the Earth's vibrations in December 2004, according to the observations seysmogravimetra in St. Petersburg." Research Institute of Physics them. Fock St. Petersburg University. Physics of the Earth. 2007. »№ 2.
EG Mirmovich, Civil Defense Academy, EMERCOM of Russia, sand.sci. (Ph-Math), associate professor, AP Yagodin, Laboratory of Earthquake Prediction, Haifa, Israel «Development of Earthquake Prediction System Pilot Module based on Patent wo/2008/053463 to Yagodin as Humanitarian Task». EMERCOM of Russia Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Scientific Society for Risk Analysis 14th International Scientific and Practical Conference on the Issues of Protection of Population and Territories from Emergencies Modern Aspects of Humanitarian Operations in Emergency Situations and Military Conflicts. Moscow May 20, 2009.
EG Mirmovich, CYP -m.n., associate professor. Civil Defence Academy Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations "THE PROBLEM OF PREDICTING THE ORIGIN OF SOURCES OF GEOPHYSICAL disaster." Ed. Khimki. 2008.
Review on Arie Gilad.
Minutes of the meeting of the Israeli Knesset.
Analysis of behavior of fish in aquarium by Daphna Karnin and Nataly Slutsky Supervised by Johanan Erez