According to the figures released recently by Rosstat, the beginning of the second half of the economy of the North-West Federal District (North-West) is generally cleared from the effects of the crisis. A leading indicator of economic health — the index of industrial production (IIP) — in the North-West, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, in January-June increased by 7.2%, as compared with the beginning of 2009, when it started a catastrophic decline — by 8.1% . Thus, the statements of the authorities of the North-West regions overcome the crisis in the industry for the first time got a visible proof.
Following six months SZFO showed even higher growth PPI than the country as a whole (5.3%). But, paradoxically, ranked only sixth among the eight federal districts. The reason for that — a very painful process of recovery of the two most industrialized counties — Ural (1.9%) and Siberian (4.1%). As leaders like in the good old pre-crisis times, raised himself to the Central Federal District (10.7%). Of course, the most significant contribution to such a positive trend has made Moscow (12.7%). It is followed by the South (9.2%) and Volga (8.6%) districts.
However, figures released by Rosstat, should not cause euphoria. They sometimes look strange at all. Let's say, six months ago, the pace of decline in industrial production in the Northwestern Federal District in 2009 were estimated by Rosstat in 11.8%, and the updated information — only 7.4%. Moreover, unexpectedly changed, though very little growth rate last STI — from 8.8 to 8.9%. This greatly changes the picture. If you rely on old and not fresh data of Rosstat, STI North-West in the last two and a half years is not increased by 8.1, and only 2.9%, which is almost on the value of statistical error.
As for the individual regions, including the key to the North-West, the situation is even more complicated. According to the Federal State Statistics Service recalculation, PPI St. Petersburg in 2009 decreased by 20.1% did not, and has only 16.6%. Thus, if we take into account the old figures, the industry of the northern capital for two and a half years has added symbolic 1.5%, and if you believe the updated, as much as 6%. Something similar happened to, say, and the Novgorod region that suffered in 2009, comparable to the loss of Petersburg. Based on previous data of Rosstat, industrial production in the region since January 2009 has not yet been recovered (minus 4%), and if you rely on fresh, the picture will be much more blissful, up to a sign — plus 4%.
As is known, in 2010, Rosstat changed the method of calculation of gross domestic product and STIs. It is easy to guess, and regional indices touched — they also require recalculation. Innovations in the statistical segment are long overdue, and nothing against them were even deliberately opposition to government economists. But the crisis and the recovery period after it — hardly the most optimal time for their introduction. The result — now it is not clear which region is compared with pre-crisis times plus, and what — minus.
But as Joseph Stalin was not for us other writers, and at the current Russian authorities apparently did not find alternative statisticians. Therefore, we are doomed to quote numbers offered Statistics. And for him the highest growth rates of STIs in the first half showed Kaluga (29.5%) and Kaliningrad (25.2%) regions. On the tenth place — St. Petersburg (16.7%). As you know, in these regions of the Russian Federation established automotive cluster — the same "locomotive" that pulls the economy of the three regions up. In fact, exactly the same thing was observed in the last year, with the only difference being that the separation of the Kaluga region (44.7%) from Kaliningrad (31.2%) was then more.
Spring pent-up demand for cars caused by the crisis, re-expands (due in part to the banks return to the market an affordable car loans), that the hand region, had time to create the automotive cluster. For example, in St. Petersburg in January-June, according to the City Committee for Economic Development, Industrial Policy and Trade, the main increase in PPI provided primarily industry 'manufacture of transport equipment "(it grew by 50% compared to the corresponding period last year).
Oilers take their
Another trend in 2010, to gain a foothold in the first half of 2011 — outsidership on the dynamics of STI's most promising oil and gas in the North-West region — Nenets Autonomous District. In the past year, industrial production in the Nenets AO decreased by 4.7% in the first half of this year — a further 22.7%. And this is outsidership not only within the North-West, but also Russia. Furthermore, the NAO pulled a down and Arkhangelsk region, which includes. That ranked second from the bottom with the index lower PPI 16.8%, losing even Chechnya (minus 15.4%).
But make far-reaching conclusions about the prospects for the NAO should not be. First, it is a subject of the Russian Federation, where the extraction of hydrocarbons and mining, and almost all tied to a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions do not have any other industry, on which the region could fall back on. Secondly, if we take into account not short distance, and longer — from January 2009, the drop in production in the NAO was only 5.6%. And it's not a disaster.
The third — and most important — Nenets remains one of the most delicious regions for investment. For example, in the ranking of investment attractiveness, compiled by the Ministry of Regional Development, July 1, the NAO is in fourth place, behind only the Krasnodar region, which develops largely due to preparations for the Sochi 2014 Olympic Games, as well as two of his northern brethren, where oil rigs are not built, and hard at work for decades — the Tyumen region and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. Moreover, the volume of investment in fixed assets per capita is leading the NAO (April 1 — 252.8 thousand rubles), which occupies the second place ahead of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area in the more than two-fold (124.1 thousand).
Builders are again in the red
By the way, in the whole North-West investment in fixed assets in the first half decreased by 5%, and in the most economically powerful regions more strongly: in St. Petersburg — by 10.7%, in the Leningrad region — by 8.9%, and Kaliningrad — almost twice. The most attractive investment in January-June in North-steel Vologda (up 23.6%) and the Arkhangelsk region (20.1%).
The most unfortunate line in the Federal State Statistics Service — still "building construction". Development business, the most affected by the crisis, until just never recovered from its effects, but continues to operate at a loss. Throughout the country, new housing for the six months decreased by 3.7%, while in the North-West — by 11.7%, inclu
ding in St. Petersburg — by 12.9%. For two and a half years, the number of rentable square feet in the county decreased by 25.4%, while in the city on the Neva river, choked with the imbalance between the growing demand (not always true, solvent) and unsatisfied demand, — by 27.9%.
The leader in the construction of the Northwestern Federal District became the Nenets Autonomous Area — he, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, in six months has commissioned 2.3 times more housing than in the same period last year. According to the Ministry of Regional Development, the NAO on July 1 in the line "construction per capita" is also the first in the country (123.1 thousand). This, incidentally, is another argument in favor of the autonomous region is more alive than dead. In second place in the North-West — Novgorod Region (46.6%). Outsiders besides the Northern capital (minus 12.9%) were the Republic of Karelia (minus 15.4%) and the Leningrad region (minus 16%). And it is quite a sad situation in the Murmansk region, where square meters was put into operation almost three times less than in January-June 2010.
But the most optimistic option in the Federal State Statistics Service reports — the state of public finances. Consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation in the North-West, executed with a surplus. Total revenue budgets North-West regions for the six months amounted to 417.8 billion rubles, expenses — 351.7 billion
The real income of the population in the North-West have returned to pre-crisis levels back to the beginning of the year. In 2010, they managed to have risen by 5.1% (according to the updated data of Rosstat — 6.4%), and in January and May of this year — another 1%. However, the average temperature in the hospital does not mean that all patients (and subjects of the Russian Federation in the North West — 11) feel equally comfortable. For example, in Leningrad rates increase in five months was 4.2%, in St. Petersburg — 4.1%, and in the other nine regions recorded decline — from 0.4% in the Novgorod region to 6.3% in Kaliningrad.
That's why consumer demand returns modest pace. Retail trade turnover in the whole North-West for the half year increased by 4.6% (from 0.2% in the Kaliningrad region to 8% in Pskov). In this national average growth of 5.3% — and the North-West by the dynamics of re-occupies only sixth among the federal districts.