Soon there will replace Alexander Lukashenko government?

The Head of State held a meeting on socio-economic development? Lee developed especially good conditions for the Belarusian economy?
Is it possible to make a suitable business climate within the existing social model? When will these economic difficulties, requiring a change of government?
Suitable now or outdoor conditions for the Belarusian economy?
Valery Karbalevich: "The main conclusion of Lukashenka at yesterday’s meeting is that at the moment have a very suitable external conditions for the Belarusian economy.
There is said to him, "a distraught demand" for Belarusian products, especially in Russia — food, clothes, order materials, and other engineering products.
And so, on the views of the President, you can put the fundamental puzzles, planned GDP growth next year, even 20%. A five-year increment for it twice. And the whole problem in nyasprytnastsi Government Directorate. As such conclusions correspond to reality? "
Alexander Chubrik: "Indeed, the external conditions are favorable for us. But, for example, in 2004, conditions were more suitable, but then growth has been higher than at present. From this it follows that the crisis has negatively impacted our economy.
The main factor is the appropriate — Cancel price situation on the world market. Grow and prices for potash, and dark metals.
In addition, Russian businesses are not yet able to meet the demand in its own market. But in the following years, the situation in Russia will change, and Belarus is is not very favorable. Even at very not bad criteria no ability to increment GDP next year by 20%. "
Mike Zaleski: "Indeed situation for us is not bad. For example, Our homeland could take Belarusian sugar, but for some reason half of our exports she refused.
But we can not state that we already have a portfolio of orders for Belarusian products. If possible, talk about the ability to offer their products that will not only Belarusians, and the Chinese and the Koreans, and the French, and others.
If we talk about the "mad demand" for our agricultural products, there is an awl out of the bag and get out. Belarus gathered grain in the amount of 700 kg per person. Very many.
But when they began to sell food in Russia, soon revealed his lack of in our stores. And in Austria provide only 400 kg per person, and they have enough to please and domestic demand and for export. "
Chubrik: "Just due to the fact issue that Lukashenko asked the Minister of Statistics. Other words, if our statistics reflect reality? This applies especially to agriculture."
Will have an economic impact of U.S. sanctions against the "Belneftekhim"?
Karbalevich: "That’s the continuation of a conversation about the outdoor conditions. U.S. decided to freeze the accounts of" Belneftekhim "and its representatives within the boundaries of the jurisdiction of the South American government. This is a purely political gesture? Or it may have practical economic consequences Belarus? "
Chubrik: "To accurately answer this question, we need to know what tools are those accounts that are locked. Here dominate political motives.
I believe that such a strategy is ineffective. These sanctions will not improve any financial or political situation in Belarus.
In this it mattersetsya just when control of Belarus makes attempts to create a better business with the West. There was a time when the political situation in the country was worse than reality, but such sanctions was not. "
Zaleski: "If you send us a black mark, then immediately nastsyarozhvaetstsa clientele, banks and other companies that work with this company. Conditions acts it immediately deteriorate, even if blocked account and not very important.
"Belneftekhim" will have to change something in their own activities, it affects the style of the group, its economic activity. "
Chance of changing business climate in the country?
Karbalevich: "Very exciting at yesterday’s meeting was a statement by the head of the National Bank Prokopovich.
He said, it must make suitable conditions for foreign investment verbovaniya, that Belarus is one of the world’s 25 best countries for suitable business climate in Belarus reincarnate solid free economic zone.
This problem, in his view, a purely bureaucratic. Lukashenko Tipo supported this idea. And in your opinion, this problem is really a bureaucratic or political? "
Chubrik: "It was nice to hear such a statement from Prokopovich. This problem and bureaucratic, and political, it has other nuances.
But to change vkladyvatelny climate change needs of decision-making in the country. Decentralization of management is needed. Hard to expect from those people, who were sitting at yesterday’s meeting, any decisive action in this area, even if the team is on top.
Because I do not expect meaningful improvements in the business climate, likely only partial progress. "
Zaleski: "Control of the country was not ripe for the configuration of economic policy. Prior to that, foreign investors are interested in whether the agreement made and whether the property is inviolable. We have examples where there burned and" Ford "and" McDonald’s. "And it is a signal for the entire business .
No answer to the issues such as the decentralization of management, the ability to export capital of Belarus, the elimination of contradiction customs, tax and other laws. "
Useful if the sacrificial goat?
Karbalevich: "Much attention is paid to meeting Lukashenko criticized the government. He stated that at the presidential level all issues have been resolved, and all the flaws in the economy are due to bad government work.
He called members of the government "temporary worker" who overgrown mucky, read about the ability of staff rotation.
Deputy head of the presidential administration Anfimov said that the government is not prepared for work in the new criteria. Lukashenko said that if the first 9 months of 2008, six of the nineteen economic characteristics are not met, it will be obliged to change the government.
We need to realize, particularly at this time in any country such socio-economic difficulties, will need to find scapegoats and fulfill this role the government? "
Chubrik "This question only half the economic — and political half. If we talk about economic nuance issue, it is clear that the subsequent year will be easy.
The government planned to increase prices for utilities. A revenue growth has slowed considerably. Discontent among the population will grow. And then for a change of government Lukashenko will come in handy.
But the problem is that the following years the situation will not improve. And before the election will again have to find the guilty. How long can it last? "
Zaleski: "The government we have forms the Lukashenko. If this government he formed bad, what hope for that subsequent gets better? Can even now change it. Nothing on this will not change."
Chubrik: "The problem is not the government, and the entire system. Solving puzzles seek out is not there. The problem is that the role of government and the authorities in general have very large.
Power climb in every hole, and they’re not needed. Here Lukashenko accuses the government that it is not engaged in the expansion of exports to Russia. But the government can not navigate in the Russian market, where demand conditions and other. This may well be guided only business.
But not only the business, but even companies and municipal authorities do not give breathe. Needs not only to borrow, and to lure foreign companies, so that they could get profit here.
But if even 5 years ago could experiment, at the moment this is no time. After 5 years, the Belarusian e
conomy will have a lot of the worst conditions. "
Karbalevich: "Of course, the government in Belarus technical. It operates within the political bands which determines Lukashenko. Because, really, the change of government does not solve anything."

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