How can we explain the sudden results BNF congress? How profound contradiction between the approaches that embodied the Congress Vintsuk Vyachorka and Mikhalevich? What will be the front after the congress?
These issues in the program "Prague accent" discussions are political scientists Ira Bugrova and Andrei Kazakevich and radio commentator Vitaly Tsigankov. We offer the first part of the transmission.
Why was not repeated in 1999?
Drakakhrust"Congress BPF reminded adventure novel with a twisted intrigue: passion, critical collision and sudden end via a character who at one point out of the shadows. Analysis of what happened, I suggest you start from the end, why not split the last scenario was repeated in 1999 why all the major competitors also came to a compromise Vitaly Tsigankov, you were there in the thick of things, the first word for you. "
Tsigankov"Everything finished miraculously — election to the presidency Barscheuski. Until now a day or no one suspected that this may be happy ending, happy even in comparison with what other variations that could ensue if the confrontation lasted. Before proceed to the analysis, I will try to give joyful scene of the accident.
In a sense, the chairman of the Belarusian Popular Front did Liavon Borshevsky Swedish translators. He said to me that, unfortunately, could not participate yesterday in the 2nd round, he did not vote, as specifically in 17 hours was due to travel to the Swedish fellow translators, the meeting which was scheduled in advance. So he and Vladimir Orlov, and a few others did not vote. These are the 2-3 vote, which was not enough to win Vintsuk Vyachorka.
I have asked many of Governors of the BPF, and the ordinary members of the Front, and Leon himself, as it is all in the morning on Sunday came out neuzh everything was spontaneous. All they say that there was no plan that Barshcheuski litsezrev that the situation hopeless, offered his candidacy to solve this crisis.
Leon said, that comes to only one term of 2 years, comes as a crisis manager, as he said, come to try to reconcile these two parts into which the BNF a day or during the first Congress. "
Drakakhrust"Ira Bugrova the same question for you — why not work out a public split, why not repeat the scenario in 1999?"
Bugrova"In my opinion, the BNF has passed over this time period is a great way of evolution, from the rigid authoritarianism Poznyak to significant liberalization. Specifically, this is the reward Vintsuk Vyachorka. Was much controversy over strategy and strategy games about leadership related and Siuchyk, and Sevyarynets. Certainly, this experience is taken into account.
Certainly, liberal BPF differs from the party that was until 1999. Vintsuk Vyachorka not such a charismatic favorite, which was Zenon Pozniak. Vyachorka — faster multifunction favorite.
I would draw attention to the democratic nature debate, which was held recently at the Congress and the Congress. This — the normal process and is very close to those European discussions that we look to other countries. And I believe that the hard split will not be severe. "
Drakakhrust"Andrei Kazakevich, and your eyes, why such a compromise scenario went, why and Vyachorka and Mihalevitch, reluctantly heart, withdrew, and in 1999 was the confrontation to an end?"
Kazakevitch"Part of the reason has already been named. Would I saw that there was no longer the same energy, whereas in 1999, the confrontation was not only private, but also the ideological dimension, faced different eyes to how the organization should develop, it should offer. All the same, the difference between Vyachorka Mikhalevich and not as significant as between with 2 parts of the front in 1999.
Apart from this, there is also a pragmatic point. Everyone understands that the Front is a political "train" only in the format in which it is. If there is a split, none of the parts will not be self-sufficient and not be able to form an independent political entity. This is a step for the upcoming marginalization.
Third time — this is what really was some experience of democracy within the party, pragmatic experience that allows a crisis not to bring the matter before the split, which anyway would mean weakening both sides. "
Clash of ambitions or principles?
Drakakhrust"Ira Bugrova already started talking about what was in podbivtsy this Congress, those intrigues, conflicts which we beheld, and specifically confrontation not only 2-persons — Vyachorka and Michalevic, and 2-development concepts Front. Their collision testified that the organization is going through a severe crisis, not in the sense that she was bad, and the crisis in the sense of a crossroads — it is necessary to make a choice. Ira, in your opinion, how profound was the crisis, as were two nyasumyashchalnymi these concepts, the two approaches? "
Bugrova"In general, if read conceptually, I do not see a huge difference in the areas that were Vyachorka and Mihalevitch except perhaps the case to the movement" For Freedom. "And the next moment fundamentally — is placing Front political space of the country and abroad outside, it is a question, what is the role of BNF in determining political strategies in Belarus.
It seems to me that it is in this space is the boundary between the old party elite ambitsyynastsyu related Vyachorka and ambitsyynastsyu newest party elite associated with Mikhalevich. I think it is a decisive argument. In my opinion it must end so that a number of young politicians and a number of theses. which were announced Mikhalevich should find reflection in party discussions and to reorient the party. "
Drakakhrust"Andrew, how do you assess the depth of these contradictions? Ira already named one point of disagreement — the ratio of the movement" For Freedom. "But it seems that contradictions field was wider fraction Michalevic willing to reconsider relations with other forces within the boundaries of the general opposition coalition and Pobol closely links with organizations such as the "Young Front", the Conservative Christian Party of the Belarusian Popular Front, the Christian Democrats. So it seems that there was a business, not only in personal ambition, and conceptual things. whether ambitions still had major? "
Kazakevitch"I would not multiply the value differences between applets. These differences were emphasized in order to give a huge expressive style Michalevic. He needed to find those moments that would show that there is a candidate. And at the party of ideas, katseptualnay differences between the approaches of the first and the second candidate was not.
Well really, if Mihalevitch defeated, the party would be less cooperated with the coalition and more than — with traffic Milinkevich. It was the time of their fundamentally contradictions. It was a largely symbolic play, and partially understood it all. "
Tsigankov"I think that many of the delegates elected Vyachorka Michalevic or for reasons farthest from causes such as cooperation
with certain political forces. And just because someone is more attracted to someone.
Just as many delegates were terribly unhappy with the way the front in the last 2 years, were the performances that will not be worse, because they voted against Vecherko. But other delegates just felt that when Mihalevitch Front may become one NGO-shnoy structure, ideological political party will turn into a structure that operates on grants. Because they voted on principle — who else but Mihalevitch.
But fundamentally certain discrepancies were apparently. I would have said that this congress was held under the slogan "Long live the independence of the Belarusian Popular Front" Delegates from different sides were that enough work for someone else’s uncle, the front should do in the end is.
Sovereign Labkovich applying for the post of deputy chairman of the Front, was that the party was previously obliged to throw all the resources that a coalition, then Milinkevich, this was the situation. But now, read Labkovich, I promise that at the moment we all resources are real and human, will throw only on the development of BPF actually, our bodies and our minds.
You Yuri true uttered that Mihalevitch in his speech promised to establish more closely due to the CCP and with the movement "For Freedom." And Vyachorka was obliged to respond to such sentiments in the Front, he did not read about the close cooperation with the coalition, it’s own program there said that "BNF — this is not a faceless faceless part of the opposition." The motto "Self BPF" prevailed at the Congress and sounded on both sides.
There were many speeches delegates perturbed that Hubarevich, Mihalevitch and other unwilling determined, they remain in the BNF and in motion Milinkevich, where they occupy certain positions. Milinkevich movement — a political organization, and why people who claim to leadership positions in the BNF can not tell Congress that they come out of that movement. By the way, none of such output at the congress said.
At the congress was a lot of resentment towards Milinkevich, especially from team members Vecherko. Wish to engage in a front, front feels that it crisis Front loses people practically stated that Milinkevich pulls people out of the BPF, and many did not like it. "
Where will the front after the congress?
Drakakhrust"Well, what more, where will the front after the Congress led by Borshevsky? What will his face after those discussions, then the crisis? Will not the compromise just split almost in installments? Especially since that Lavon Barshcheuski immediately after the election showed to whom he gives preference to the position of offering its own deputy Vintsuk Vyachorka, but not Mikhalevich. What is more, Andrew? "
Kazakevitch"It’s hard to say what will happen. I do not think that will happen katigorichnye configuration. Likely that the balance between the front group, which was and is, and he is likely to continue. Certainly, no one would go into open conflict and division in the near future . I think that would be faster Barshcheuski technical manager, and it will increase the status of deputies. And the principal balance will emerge at this level. "
Drakakhrust"Vitaly Tsigankov and Congress recently, and another for a long time before the Congress BPF recognizable Fyaduta analyst Alexander wrote that the only salvation for the opposition — it’s coming to power in its latest generation of politicians. Resulted in a compromise congress BPF was the arrival to power in it generation previous to that right up front to the nearest time. I wish to remind you that Barscheuski 1999 virtually withdrew from politics, engaged in education, translation business. Like you rate concerning forecast Alexander Feduta? Well, for you too question that I asked Andrew — that will continue? "
Tsigankov"Thank God that Party organizations do not always automatic advice columnists, even the brightest such as Alexander Fyaduta. Certainly, we should not succumb to the temptation of such representations that have experienced and smart analysts and policy-klutz not heed them. Politicians have his arguments and his own mind.
As for the idea that after all the rejuvenation of leading cadres of the opposition, then it apalyagetav I would ask — you need to summarize, or the most rejuvenation process?
If we wish to achieve results in this sense Lavon Barshcheuski — brand new figure. It really did not take 8 years role in political life, but I am inclined to assess the prospects Front in the election Borshevsky optimistic.
At Leon is energy, it has a chance to overcome the split, which is currently visible in the BPF, as he is the new man, he has no negative loop, which have Vyachorka and Mihalevitch. It can carry along in this time of crisis, can attract new people, and most importantly — to gloss over this split.
Danger of his position is that he is guided by his old friendly ties with the group Vyachorka can contribute specifically to her. I think it would be a mistake if it happens. "
Drakakhrust"Ira, the same question for you — about the prospects for the Front after the congress.
But here I wish to express one’s own worldview. I think that the exciting thing happened around the candidacy of Viktor Ivashkevich. In the first round of voting, he scored quite few votes and was eliminated from the upcoming competition.
It turns out that one of the reasons for this was that in Vyachorka and Michalevic were teams that were "core" loyal to them personally by individuals who yard at the congress. At the same time, Victor Ivashkevich than either resembled Stanislav Shushkevich, who positions the speaker of parliament read: "My team — the Supreme Council." And the result we remember.
Which is the fruit of the Board Borshevsky considering that the team remain the same, they are only Vyachorka and Michalevic? A Barshcheuski can say one thing "My team — it BNF".
Bugrova"Selecting Borshevsky — it pauses to passions run high on. Clever favorite has to be understood that there are actually two equal parts, two approaches. No matter how they differ from each other, Barshchevsky wisdom would be to ensure that this period was period of compromise discussions, which would enable and restore happen, and preserve traditions.
In my opinion, neither ambitsyynasts Vyachorka nor ambitsyynasts Michalevic not going anywhere. Must keep in mind that the current period — this electoral period, like we did not assess the conditions for future elections. And the electoral period — it is always a period of greater political activity. And, certainly, and Mihalevitch be interested to increment its own political weight and Vintsuk Vyachorka also will not sit, hands stock.
There are likely different options, the only thing that seems to me today unenforceable, hard split. Will backroom intrigue, forming teams. Borshevsky figure — the figure of a compromise, and let him be God inteligentnastsi, tact and political correctness, to bring the BNF of this situation. Maybe he will succeed.
But the man who withdrew from politics, stood over her, has not always correct policy instruments are needed to address this crisis. So that it can become a period of normal operation, and can become a period of calm, when the BNF will take the position, and will score points only personally Mihalevitch and Vyachorka. But it will not face the BPF. "
khrust"Andrew, vorachivayas to nomination Ivashkevicha. What role is played by extension, perhaps, against the wishes of the Ivashkevicha — not" padrubila "it Vecherki chances?"
Kazakevitch"I do not think that behavior Ivashkevicha, advance their own candidacy somehow damaged the chance Vecherko. Especially since that after the first round Ivashkevich urged his supporters to vote for Vyachorka. But the situation indicates that not only the presence of a team, and work in the midst of ordinary members of the organization is more important to determine the balance of power in the BPF.
You surely have uttered that that figure, which is Shushkevich, try to have as his own team the whole front has not much chance of success. And Borshevsky election does not abolish those teams that in the end will decide where the organization will move.
With regard to appeals before the arrival Feduta youth that need to change generation, then to me they seem pretty funny. The situation should evolve organically. In addition, young people, young politicians — it is not always young, brand new policy. The more so if the talk about the young generation, it is also almost the last 10 years one way or another tied in political affairs, and because such radically change of generations can not eat anything. "
Tsigankov"Viktor Ivashkevich Subtotal (26 votes) showed that in the party structures concept backstage work, work with people. Ivashkevich A more engaged in public policy. He cited its own rating citation other candidates did not. But maybe that’s also why it Mihalevitch and do not need. Recently the Congress, he acted very technologically, he spoke individually with almost every delegate congress.
After the first round, when called upon to vote for Ivashkevich Vyachorka, he said that "Mihalevitch still stands to become a public policy to even journalists were not asked:" And who such Mihalevitch? "
Here the gap between perception political leader inside the party and outside it — is a harsh and I’d said, terrible phenomenon. Cost loaf that would be from the front, if I was elected chairman Mihalevitch, a little-known figure who reached the this post would NOT colorful political action and behind the scenes work.
This backroom work in their own organization becomes more important than real certain political work. But why should a political party? To gain the sympathy of voters. In this sense, the same Ivashkevich now cited more than and Mihalevitch and Vyachorka. And the fundamental task is to bring Borshevsky Front orbit of public policy, that the figure at the head of the Belarusian Popular Front, were popular not because of its discussions with each delegate to Congress, and by its own open public activities. "