U.S. intelligence about us: we are or why they fatally interfere?

"Russia has no lack of geographical barriers to success — his wide-open borders as would be created for the invasion, its vast plains hinder economies of scale, lack of navigable rivers, making it a poor and dry and cold climate reduces yield. But with the passage of time, however, Russia has managed to turn many of its weaknesses into force. It consolidated the political and economic forces, making them instruments of the centralized state, so that all the power of the nation could be directed to solving any problems that arise.

It might be unfortunate ineffective and caused periods of instability, but it is — the only method that was implemented to ensure Russia's own security. Russia even drew his lack of natural easily defensible borders in its favor. Vast expanses of Russia meant that the only way to secure their borders, is to be expanded, which put Russia in a situation of dominance over numerous minorities who know what they are used as a damper against attacks from the outside. To manage these nations, Russia has developed the most developed intelligence apparatus.

This centralization, combined with the physical location of Russia in the middle of the plains of northern Eurasia, makes the country a natural counterweight to the United States and the state most prone to engage in anti-American coalitions. Not only the location of Russia in the plains of Eurasia, requires expansion outward, to achieve security (thus making Russia a "continent-sized nation"), its natural tendency is to dominate or soyuznichat with any nation lies in its path. Because of its geographical disadvantages, Russia is not a country that can ever rest on its laurels, and its strategic need for the expansion of the U.S. makes it a natural contender.

Unfortunately for Americans, Russia is extremely resistant to American influence, whether it takes the form of hugs influence or pressure ..

The lack of Russian culture trade or navigation makes any related Bretton Woods agreements failed (even today, Russia remains outside the WTO).

Russia — the largest country in the region, and it does a pretty meaningless (at least in this context), the United States proposal, any kind of military alliance, as there is no enemy against which Russia would have to unite.
Exposure to Russian influence over maritime borders is extremely low, because inhabited areas are located only on the banks of the geographically limited the Black and Baltic Seas. This makes Russia insensitive to American naval patronage.

Even the traditional American strategy of using a third force to surround the enemy does not work well against Russia as it works against many others, as the intelligence network and the network to cope with the problem of Russian overthrow hostile governments in the region (clearly demonstrated in relief antikremlevskih governments in Ukraine Georgia and Kyrgyzstan in recent years).

This means that the only reliable U.S. ability to limit Russian power is the same strategy that was used during the Cold War: Direct deployment of U.S. armed forces in the Russian periferii.No this possibility was simply not available for the last eight years.

From mid-2003 to early 2011 all the seating surface of American troops revolved around Iraq and Afghanistan, leaving no space for the opposition to strengthening of Russian power. American concern about the Islamic world has created an opportunity for Russia to recover from the Soviet collapse. Revival of Russia — an excellent illustration of the regenerative abilities of the major powers.

Still only 12 years ago, Russia did not even have full control over its own territory, the insurgency raging in Chechnya and many other regions, the actual carrying out their own sovereignty. National savings or disappeared in the August 1998 crisis were looted or oligarchs. During the American wars in the Islamic world, however, the Russian was reorganized and re-centralized and earned a significant amount of cash from the sale of goods.

In Russia now has a sustainable budget and more than half a trillion dollars in the bank. Its internal wars were crushed, and she re-assimilated, broken, or at least intimidated all the former Soviet states. At present, Russia has even cooperated with Germany in search of the neutralization of the U.S. military alliances with NATO countries, such as Poland and Romania, and continues to support Iran as a deterrent to the United States, to neutralize them in the Middle East.

Simply put, Russia — by far the country with the most potential — and interests — the ability to challenge the goal of American foreign policy. And considering it uncomfortable to protect the border, a lot of subordinate non-Russian ethnic groups and the American interest in creating interference major competitors, is to recognize that Russia is a country that more than any other has to lose.

Russian power is to consolidate and deepen its penetration in the border areas of the Caucasus and Central Europe. While Americans were busy in the Islamic world, it became apparent that Russian can reach if left alone for a few years. And the American isolationist impulse would allow Russian to continue to transform their neighbors and bring about its position to the old external borders of the old Soviet empire, such as the Carpathian Mountains, the Tien Shan Mountains, the Caucasus, and perhaps even reduce the impact of NATO's Baltic countries.

At the same time, the probability of a hot war is relatively low, Stratfor still classifies the revival of Russia as the most problematic process for long-term U.S. position simply by virtue of a combination of the size of Russia and the fact that it is — and this is a long-term factor remains — power with nuclear weapons. "

Source: stratfor.com

Translation: yuss.livejournal.com

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