U.S. sanctions will not change things Belarusians to the West nor the policy of Lukashenko

Drakakhrust: "On this week the United States government imposed sanctions against the Belarusian "Belneftekhim" concern. This concern connects voedinyzhdy almost all Belarusian chemical and oil industry, its membership includes 50 organizations, including two refineries, "Belorusneft" and "Belaruskali", the total number of employees of companies belonging to the concern — 120 thousand people.
Products Group companies is 35% of industrial production and the half of exports. Export "Belneftekhim" in the U.S. is about 2% of the total Belarusian exports.
Divine sanctions freezing assets of the subsidiary "Belneftekhim" in the United States, a ban South American citizens and companies to have a business with "Belneftekhim" and zabugornom missions.
As someone already saw "Belneftekhim" equated to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — not so long ago, the United States adopted such stringent measures regarding this education.
It seems the United States for the first time introduced against Belarus direct sanctions. Previously, for example, in the famous "Act on democracy in Belarus" adopted 3 years back, it was about something that America will not give Belarus — loans, contracts, etc. Now according to the latest accounts as "Belneftekhim" in the United States are frozen. Why taken such a step? "
Portnikov: "In 1-x, I must say that there are instrumental mechanisms such sanctions. And they should not be confused with the political decisions that are made at the level of the U.S. administration. Incidentally, such an approach is quite vserasprostranen in the Russian Federation, where such sanctions are always perceived only as an element of pressure on Vladimir Putin and Russian control, zapamyatyvaya that in the West, unlike the post-Soviet East, legal instruments are often more severe leverage than political decisions at the highest level. In countries where the courts are guided by the decisions of presidents and not the president — the decisions of the courts is to realize unrealistic.
There are, of course, and the other side — to realize Alexander Lukashenko that he must behave more cautiously when it comes to fundamentally question American foreign policy. Worth seeing that at the moment a good time to give Lukashenko realize it because it is in a very difficult relationship with Putin’s Russia. "
Drakakhrust: "In some views of professionals," target "sanctions — Belarusian oil project in Venezuela. Has been said about the plans to sell this oil to the United States.
Although South American Embassy stated that the sanctions are not a preventive measure against this project, there is a definite connection traced: that Belarus to sell oil to the United States, you must have a consulate there. A bill of this consulate once and frozen. That is the reason for this? "
Portnikov: "I do not know how such sanctions can block a project of the Belarusian government. Apart from the ability to take something or sell in the United States, there are European countries, there is a possibility do it through Russia, there are many illegal ways. If a government wants to implement some project, no sanctions fail to block it absolutely.
But his step the United States give Minsk realize that this project is undesirable and may lead to a rather nasty consequences, not only for Alexander Lukashenko, and for the people who will participate in this project. "
Drakakhrust: "Trafficking in Belarus and a minimum of" Belneftekhim "with the United States is relatively modest. But with the European Union — quite impressive, with specific bands on" Belneftekhim. "If the European Union to accede to the decision of the United States, the economic effect of such common sanctions will be very painful. But how is this possible?’s outlook Alexander Rahr of the German professional.
Rahr: "I think that South American initiative will cause some reaction from European politicians, but most Western companies, who are beginning to open itself the Belarusian market, realize that Lukashenko wants to get out of control and starts to open in Moscow their country EU — specifically those business structures hardly support the sanctions regime against this country.
Now the Americans are forced to all Europeans to take very tough sanctions against Iran. In this case, many Western companies will follow the South American claims, realizing that it is — the only way to prevent a world war. But in the case of Belarus, I do not think that Western companies will follow the path that they indicate the United States of America. "
This worldview Alexander Rahr. And what is your outlook on this? "
Portnikov: "If the decision of the United States will look reasoned if the U.S. will give its European partners indisputable confirmation of the role of" Belneftekhim "unsafe for the West and peace projects, I believe that Europe will support these acts quietly USA. But we know that is not always European acts in sync with the South American. "
Drakakhrust: "Some experts have expressed the view that sanctions against South American" Belneftekhim "- in fact a warning of. Is this true and what, in your opinion, will generally be Moscow’s response to Washington’s move against Belarus?"
Portnikov: "I think that our homeland norwhat to do will not. Just pretend that no such decision had been, even more so that Russia itself had not once face different economic sanctions against its affiliates. Those sanctions were not as sonorous as today’s sanctions against "Belneftekhim", but they were too nasty for Russia, for it was basically, that they have been canceled, but there were no severe reactions, not counting the properties of the respective solutions as a purely U.S. policy. And it is clear that there can be the same situation. "
Drakakhrust: "But some believe Our homeland that indirectly, may even be interested in these sanctions because they push Belarus Russian embrace. "
Portnikov: "On the one hand, it is. On the other hand, in Russia all perfectly know that Alexander Lukashenko, pushing him to the Russian Federation or not, does what it is profitable at the moment. So the United States can push it, but it will defend its its position. way, and to those sanctions the West was not, to put it mildly, very committed to Alexander Lukashenko. But it did not change its position in relations with Moscow. "
Drakakhrust: "U.S. sanctions against" Belneftekhim "- quite an old case of personal difficulties: how effective are economic sanctions, they cause discontent among the population of the country in respect of which the adopted sanctions against the government or, on the contrary, it leads to people around gurtavannya own against foreign leaders pressure? "
Portnikov: "Need some civilian society to unite against the external pressure. Society in any form, at least in Venezuela or Iraq even after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Because, say, an act of the United States in Iraq cause different reactions of different parts of the Iraqi population. In Venezuela also do not support some of Hugo Chavez and believe that the U.S. should act regarding the Chavez regime more aggressively support the President and the other responsible for any steps Vashyntonu mass demonstrations of solidarity with kavdyle.
In Belarus, we are dealing with a society apolitical. Well cares ordinary Belarusians "Belneftekhim"? This is for him unprincipled question, he knows that the West disapproves of Belarus, because she wants to live with his mind, he was talking about it on television. Number of politically conscious population in Belarus is small. And then sanctions will not change the situation. "
Drakakhrust: "The official Mins
k reacted to Washington’s move very sharply in the South American side of the Foreign Ministry has been accused of violating the duties that the U.S. provides Belarus first 1990 when Belarus renounced nuclear weapons. Which concrete steps in response to be able to make the official Minsk? "
Portnikov: "It seems to me that such statements fairly. Well that Belarus can do? Can I read about any harsh economic interests of the U.S. in Belarus? Denkov lord Juan Carlos Chavez responded adequately at the international conference, telling the Venezuelan president" shut up. " Hurt showed how necessary to talk with Veterans.
Whereupon Chavez began to struggle with the Spanish companies in Venezuela. In Spain quite severe economic interests in Venezuela and Chavez sovereign acts may have significant consequences for the Venezuelan economy, it is, however, not very worried, but just banging and Spanish business interests. And in the case of Belarus, no measures that could significantly affect the state of the South American business impossible. Official Minsk in the outer policy obliged to look to Moscow. Other partners of Belarus — outcasts in the world political arena. And they will remain partners Minsk after all sanctions Washington. "

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