These questions are answered Economist Leonid Zlotnikov.
Vitaly TsigankovTsigankov: "Belarusian officials to the nearest time argued that the global monetary crisis can not seriously affect Belarus. Oct. 7 But Lukashenko at his meeting with the KGB, said quite the turnaround -" Maybe it will affect us and maybe we will face neuvvyazkami exports. "What are the nuances of the Belarusian economy and monetary system more complaisant crisis?"
Zlotnikau: "In 1-x, the crisis has adversely affected the Belarusian money. Indeed, in the world market have increased interest on loans. And it means losing to Belarus this year estimated at 200-300 million dollars …"
Tsigankov: "It’s that — increased rates on those loans that Belarus has already taken?"
Zlotnikau: "Well, you need to service these debts. Usually, international agreements for loans include the so-referred to as rate LIBOR (this is common for all the interest, which provides loans to the world stock exchange in London) plus a certain percentage. So automaton percent grows with increasing rates LIBOR.
Second channel of influence — a state of Russian economy. Russian economic growth will decrease, and this means that our exports will fall in Russia. Also in Russia is expected vkladyvatelny crisis. Reduced volume of construction, will be useless Belarusian builders and build materials … "
Tsigankov: "… And may instead? Russians, instead of taking expensive Western materials will begin to take a cheap Belarusian?"
Zlotnikau: "No. A significant impact on the Belarusian economy will make the change Russian economic growth. Indeed one percent drop Russian economy, our exports to Russia dropped by 2-3 percent."
Tsigankov: "But so far, despite the fact that the crisis has already seen a few months, the rate of the Belarusian ruble against the greenback remains constant. And money managers Belarus bold enough to say that it remains for the next year. Why Belarusian ruble remained strong, although foreign trade balance Belarus is very negative? "
Zlotnikau: "It’s negative balance was covered with the influx of foreign currency in the form of loans. Over the past two and a half years Belarus owes about 7-8 billion dollars. And the inflow of foreign currency to maintain the highest rate of the Belarusian ruble.
In-2, significantly increased inflows of currency for the oil product. In the near future Our homeland has increased the volume of oil supplies to Belarus to export refined products, besides growing world oil prices.
But now we can expect that windfall decrease. And loans will no longer go so generously in Belarus, as the crisis in the world than available funds. In addition, world oil prices are falling. So we can expect that the Belarusian ruble will fall. "
Tags: Zlotnikau money, ruble crisis