Participants: the journalist of the newspaper "Belarusians and Market" Manyanok Tatiana from Minsk and Metropolitan Municipal Institute associate professor of international relations Kirill Koktysh from Moscow.
Or refused to Moscow from last year’s agreement?
Valery Karbalevich: December 31 last year Belarus and Our homeland graduated dramatic negotiations over gas pricing agreement under which the parties stipulated formula increase gas prices by 5 years. According to this formula, the value for 2008 should reach 67% of the European price. Moreover, this European fare will be known only in the best case in late December.
But in October, salting in Belarus, the Russian Federation Surikov said that the cost would be around 125 bucks for a thousand cubic meters 1. Approximately the same value referred to the Deputy Minister of Industry and the Russian Federation, who visited Minsk together with Russian Prime Minister Zubkov. And Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus Semashko announced yesterday figure of 119.5 dollars on the first quarter, while noting that Belarus will try to reduce the cost for 7-8 bucks. Oddly count, and 125 dollars, and 119 dollars — substantially less than 67% of European prices. In other words, the de facto Our homeland refused on New Year’s agreement and appointed political cost. Why Moscow changed her mind?
Tatiana Manyanok: Negotiations still last, even as the agreement would not. Because previously read about any conclusions. But if those prices really become real, it will be a sensation. Obviously, Mr. Semashko very willing to have such account. Belarusian budget for the following year laid cost 128 bucks. Maybe Semashko announced a version of the Belarusian side, which prompted to "Gazprom".
There is a vast field for haggling about the price. Belarus can offer "Gazprom" do a joint venture on the basis of "Beltransgaz" as soon as possible, and not by 2011, as foreseen by the contract. In this case, "Gazprom" would be interested in the construction of storage facilities, it’s burning for the European market. Plus the issue of the cost of transit.
And "Gazprom" is offered to do a joint venture on the basis of the plant "Grodno Nitrogen". Not so long ago it was reported that the daughter of "Gazprom", "Gazprom Neft" very interested Mozyr refinery.
Not so long ago, Turkmenistan announced an increase in gas prices. Uzbekistan starts such talks in December. And later, to join them and Kazakhstan. Therefore hard to imagine that "Gazprom" will start making gifts.
Kirill KoktyshUnder no circumstances Our homeland did not come out of the gas agreement with Belarus. Unlikely before the end of the electoral cycle, Moscow will pay a political price for energy.
While we have a statement on the Russian side, nor is it authorized statements Russian officials. For example, salting of in Belarus Surikov voiced the position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. But politics in the gas sector is determined by the presidential administration. Because I do not see the configuration of the Russian position. And for this there is no harsh circumstances.
Can we expect another gas war?
Karbalevich: So this year Gas will be no war?
Manyanok: Signs of the gas war is not seen with any or the other. On the background of the electoral process is the RF is not needed, because it spoils her style.
On the other hand, Belarus is committed to offering "Gazprom" projects that may intrigue him. Subsequent year increase in oil prices. The simultaneous increase in gas prices for Belarus would be very painful. Gas prices — the case of survival of the Belarusian social model. We should also consider that the construction of the North European Gas Pipeline reduces transit status of Belarus.
KoktyishI think the gas war will be faster than the same will not happen. It is not as a result of the Belarusian-Russian relations, as a result of political struggle recently elections in Russia. Gas war may structure of Russian society views the other day of the elections.
As regards specifically the Belarusian-Russian relations, they remain in the same state of uncertainty, and no development is not.
Tags: Our homeland, prices, gas, war, gas, Gazprom