However, this year has been one sentence of imprisonment — Andrei Klimov. But he was convicted for what he wrote about the power and Lukashenka personally something that had to last like. Others have not been contacted, and Klimov wrote. Obviously, there was an infringement on freedom of expression, but still it was an action that did not do Klimov and others.
Artur Finkevich case resembles the case of Pavel Sheremet 10 years ago. Through the Belarusian-Lithuanian border border track scurried half of the Grodno region. All, including the guards, well know it, and the maximum that threatens those offenders — it is fine. If you did the same Sheremet — remember that criminal article about illegally crossing the border has not been canceled, and Paul was in jail, of which could be released only with the Russian President. If read about the most Russian analogy striking example — Misha Khodorkovsky case. Completed half of his term, if no violations of the regime — must liberate.
But the offense is very symbolic shortly before the half term there — "do not put his hands behind his back."
Approximately the same thing happened with Artur Finkevich. And the general knowledge of contingent serving "chemistry", and stories of former prisoners of "chemistry" suggests that alcoholic smoke there stands a yoke times a day. But it was enough to take Finkevich lechuschee vehicle with alcohol-containing — an abnormality. In short, "not put his hands behind his back."
This sentence even more so mentor on the background of the fact that several cases against the "Young Front" were this year brought to trial, but ended fines. Also not a gift, but do not deprive of freedom. Also this year, even some time ago before the expiry date were released from the "chemistry" Catherine Sadovskaya Paul Seviarynets and Statkevich. Either they are so well maintained mode, unlike Arthur Finkievich — I do not know, maybe so, maybe not. But with a combination of them "first" chemistry "- later the bullpen" conduct did not. Why?
To answer the question, it is worth recalling the action a year ago. Then in the days of Christmas was in the midst of the Belarusian-Russian "war" around the gas and oil. The peak of it fell on the first days of this year, as a result, Belarus was significantly more with the highest prices and the gas and oil.
And here suddenly became clear that the Belarusians in general and their manager personally have brothers not only in the East (although what they were brothers — for 100 bucks for a thousand cubic meters), and in the West. They began to play a huge geopolitical calm. More precisely, the game led one way, but the West and Europe namely, were obviously not "on high" profound geopolitical doctrines afitsyynyga Minsk.
Even then I had to write that history played a cruel joke with those who dream of a golden past majestically Duchy of Lithuania. Fact, that the then feudal chiefs now look extremely impressive historical novels.
Well, imagine for yourself, come to Duke Vytautas "Crusader" to agree on something (and to these eternal enemies, he came three times, three times received assistance and three times did not do the promised). Reads: "Help me, ladies and gentlemen, the Muscovites (Jagiello or someone else) crushed, and I’ll pay for you, will not sulk." Well, in short, offer energy security alliance against Russian imperialism. A Master of the Order, then such Javier Solana, to him: "How are you, Prince, with human rights? They say that not very execute." Imagine the reaction of Vytautas? "Are you — quite a mind gone, then you do not respect me or if you wish to fool. I came to agree on the case. The case! And you fooled me head. Tell you that you really need. *** Yes, what is your deal I get around with his people? "
Vytautas, however, such questions are not asked then — Time wasagainst another. And now changed. There. And here — no. Because such a reaction and how would then if such questions were asked.
And the whole year had to crush the head of Belarus, listen, offer the younger generation of his administration that do not need to press, and it is necessary to conduct hitretskuyu policy to please the West slightly, and get away from it even more. Agree with the languid heart, for what still a sense of power, if not to treat their people’s own interpretation?
However, the maximum of that, his teeth clenched, was ready to go the Belarusian authorities, was markedly less than the minimum of what, too, his teeth clenched and eyes closed on their principles, could go to Europe. But this break and could be so weak and very conditional liberalization "by deflotu."
But at the end of the year the balance has changed. What have the Russians played — reliably clear: the prospect or configuration of the guard at the Kremlin, or the need for military ally or still barren "trip to the crusaders" loyal ally of the Belarusian seemed to be not that safe for Moscow. Russian eagle but he turned the second head price of gas rose a little, and most importantly — not only credit, for which the official Minsk fought since February, and put it on a platter, and more and more promised. As the soul of the year from the European "bullying" zbalelasya, well, it was her need to relax? That rested — on Finkevich.
10 years back, in the Yeltsin era, the impact of the Russian Federation to Belarus was more multifaceted: it specifically owed his release from prison Pavel Sheremet, and before Siuchyk and Yuri Khadika, well, Russian television was not so similar to the Belarusian as active moment. But in recent years there has been a connection between the compact enough paraksyzmami "Gazprom’s" pressure and more than the least restrained behavior of the Belarusian authorities in the sense of human rights. Not that "Gazprom" achieves this, he does not care, but the mechanism is simple: in order to ease the pressure, it is necessary to establish contact with the West (or pretend to impose), well and for this it is necessary to behave more decently, than one to allow themselves when the pressure of "Gazprom" is absent.
So Our homeland that, surprisingly, acts indirectly liberalizataram Belarus without having it all such plans.
With Russia, in general, need to understand, or rather, to understand what we want from it. Suppose it is not the will of our many trevozhut, but you must understand ourselves. In the past year, when "Gazprom’s" roller rolled on Belarus, said that this blackmail attempt to put Belarus on his knees and imperialism in general. In This year, when the "rink" put "on the replacement path" when given the means — is to support the Lukashenko regime and imperialism too. And what about our homeland should do? Does all gas transfer gratis Belarusian opposition for the upcoming rassredotachivaniya middle of the Belarusian population? But our opposition and at the moment from time to time to quarrel, and imagine what would happen if you have to share such facilities? also will imperialism.
What I mean is that the mechanism of indirect liberalization should realize and understand, that once again, when the "rink" with siding withdraw, not to repeat the usual curse, and to admit to himself that market prices — and this is the path to true independence and to democracy. But people do not assimilate. And not directly assimilate. Well then easier conventional formulas and people will learn, and we perfectly and excellent power. A RF anyway. And she is so and so anyway, we’re talking about yourself.
Tags: Our homeland, Lukashenko, gas, war, Finkevich, credit, liberalization