The fateful decision was made under the influence of the backroom of the nuclear lobby. Not for nothing they say that war — a very harsh thing to trust its military. So here, NPP very harsh thing to trust her spices in the field of nuclear energy.
Even if you factored out of the issues such as public support for this idea idea, "the post-Chernobyl syndrome" background radiation, it still appears a number of objections to this project.
First main question unanswered which makes no sense to build nuclear power plants: how much electricity Belarus will need 10 or 20 years? Now we have a very energy-intensive economy. A system in which dominated municipal enterprises, collective farms, with lots of unprofitable business entities, a cheap utility tariffs — such a system leads to the fact that energy consumption per capita, per unit of gross domestic product in Belarus 3-5 times higher than in the advanced countries. In the conditions of the inevitable rise in prices for oil and gas, such a system will not be able long to remain. As a result of enforced reform will eliminate energy-intensive, inefficient production, suspend construction of agricultural towns. Privatized enterprises, clicking into the hands of effective owners will minimize production costs. In 10-15 years, we we have different economy, with another volume of energy consumption. It is not excluded, for example, that the country will need less gas than now.
Meanwhile, long since confirmed that investment in energy conservation is still a huge performance than investment in new energy sources. And in this area of the country a lot of work.
2nd Need NPP construction explain the reduction in oil and gas, high-spirited rising prices on them. But research IAEA uranium by 2010 the world would be a disadvantage. In addition, world uranium prices grow faster than oil and gas. Because hardly using NPP Belarus will be able to save.
Let third for himself the question of whether what to do NPP, which fulfills their own resources, the children leave. But the question of spent fuel will have to decide at the moment. Meanwhile bureaucrats responsible for NPP shall be removed to do this in every way shy away from answering it. Meanwhile, the cost of processing and storage of radioactive waste nuclear fuel exceeds the price at least three times.
Fourth Lukashenko, speaking at a meeting of the Security Council, explained the need for the construction of nuclear power plants that makarom so we will "resist the dictates of monopoly", "minimize harm when a critical situation," to strengthen the independence, the country’s energy security. It is clear that a monopolist in this sense — Our homeland. Earlier, the head of the country put the puzzle to reach the diversification of energy sources that led to find oil in Venezuela, Iran and Azerbaijan.
But statements from responsible officials found out that almost a foregone conclusion to take Russian reactor because it is cheaper. In addition, foreign companies can not implement it in Belarus for political reasons.
The final result is that the equipment for the station will have to take in Russia, fuel — in Russia, waste store — there too. As own funds for this project not then have to take loans again as in Russia. So makarom, in addition to the oil and gas, depending on the neighbor, Belarus would be more money in atomic and dependent on him. And instead of diversification of energy sources in the country will get another huge dependence on this same monopoly. Where is the logic? Develops memory, people do not really understand what they are doing.
5th The problem of security. Lukashenko set puzzle to build nuclear power plants in a very rather short period of time. In other words, as usual, the way Abraham did. In some places this has already happened. Yes, the Chernobyl nuclear power plant built specifically accelerated pace, exceeded the plan and passed to advance under prazdnichek. And the Belarusian NPP will try to pass to the next election campaign.
In addition, Belarus has absolutely no training that can build nuclear power plants and work on it. No, and people who can teach it mattersbe. Over the short term this will not solve the puzzle.
In the conditions of the political regime, in which the power of uncontrolled people, officials have no responsibility to society, the danger grows tragedy repeatedly.
2nd International nuance. Lukashenko more than once expressed regret that a country brought nuclear weapon, called Russian control her return to Belarus. When there was an international scandal with the Iranian nuclear program that he was at a press conference September 29, 2005 said: why Iran can not have a nuclear weapon? And if in Belarus will have its own nuclear power plant, Lukashenko, with his temperament and style, will be hard to resist, so as not to frighten the West, nuclear danger.
World society puts a lot of effort to cope with the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran. And Belarus, incidentally, is not in Asia, and in the center of Europe. What kind of reaction will cause the message that another ideological and political enemy of the West is going to build a nuclear plant? By the way, already have some reaction. Speaking in the National Assembly with a message, Lukashenko resented the fact that the French have linked the issue of delivery of the reactor in Belarus with the problem of human rights. In other words, as the construction of nuclear power plant in Belarus goes into action, it is possible that it will give a boost to the internationalist crisis with all its consequences: Sanctions and others. Maybe it is necessary to Lukashenko. But whether it is necessary to Belarus?
During the seventh nuclear power plant in a couple of years the country will have to find a lot of resources, which are not. At the same time the amount, which is presently called (about 4 billion dollars), you can safely increase twice. (I wish to remind you that the State Library building cost twice as expensive in comparison with the initial business plan). In 2007, the government has experienced a huge financial strain. With the start of construction of nuclear power plants, it will increase several times, which would entail all the consequences: the budget deficit, inflation, rising debt and other outdoor. On such a trifle as lack of cement, water and nothing to read. A dividend from the project can be obtained only after many years, may be outside the political life of Lukashenko.
Such a sacrifice for the sake of posterity, it seems, is not very suitable to the political style of the incumbent. So what’s behind all this? Construction of nuclear power plant looks like a big lobbying project farthest from the public interests of Belarus.
The most basic mystery — how Lukashenko managed to persuade the man quite pragmatic on this incomprehensible adventure?
Tags: Lukashenko, atom, nuclear power plant